Global markets are getting a lift this Thursday as two major storylines resolved overnight: President Donald Trump formally signed an interim peace agreement with Iran, and the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady while delivering a surprisingly hawkish policy signal. U.S. stock futures are surging this morning — even as Wednesday's session ended sharply lower — and oil prices are retreating on hopes that the Strait of Hormuz will soon reopen to commercial traffic. For Canadian investors, the convergence of a falling oil price, a recovering loonie, and a TSX still navigating sector cross-currents makes today's session one to watch closely. Note: U.S. markets are closed tomorrow for the Juneteenth holiday, making today the last full trading day of the week on Wall Street.
🇺🇸 United States — Futures Bounce After Wednesday Selloff
Wednesday's session ended deep in the red after new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh presided over the central bank's first policy meeting of his tenure and the updated "dot plot" revealed that nine of eighteen FOMC members now favour at least one interest rate hike before year-end — a sharp pivot from the rate-cut expectations that began 2026. The S&P 500 closed down 1.21% at 7,420, the Nasdaq shed 1.34% to close at 26,022, and the Dow dropped 0.98% to settle at 51,493. The VIX spiked over 12% to 18.44, signalling a meaningful jump in investor anxiety.
This morning, however, futures are reversing course. Nasdaq 100 futures are up approximately 1.5%, S&P 500 futures are gaining around 0.8%, and Dow futures are adding 0.5%. The catalyst is the Iran deal. Trump signed the agreement at the Palace of Versailles; Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian confirmed his signature via state media. The deal's immediate provisions include the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the lifting of Iranian oil sanctions — both of which directly bear on the inflationary picture that has been troubling markets all spring.
Warsh, for his part, declined to offer any forward guidance on rate trajectory, stating only that inflation has remained above the Fed's 2% target for several years and that the central bank remains committed to price stability. Markets had already fully priced in a quarter-point hike by year-end following Wednesday's dot plot. Weekly jobless claims data is due this morning and will be closely watched for any softening in the labour market that might ease rate-hike pressure. Accenture and Kroger also report earnings today.
| Index | Last Close | Change | % Change |
|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,420 | ▼ 91 | −1.21% |
| Dow Jones | 51,493 | ▼ 510 | −0.98% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 26,022 | ▼ 355 | −1.34% |
| Russell 2000 | 2,918 | ▼ 21 | −0.72% |
| VIX | 18.44 | ▲ +2.03 | +12.37% |
🇨🇦 Canada — TSX Holds Steady; Loonie Eyes Oil Moves
The S&P/TSX Composite closed Wednesday at approximately 35,390, up 0.32% on the day — a modest gain that underlines Canadian equities' relative resilience even as U.S. markets tumbled on the Fed's hawkish pivot. The TSX Energy sub-index, however, fell nearly 2% on Wednesday as oil prices slumped following ceasefire optimism, while the Financials index added around 0.83% — a reminder of how differently Canadian sectors are exposed to the current macro backdrop.
Today's session opens in a complex position. Falling oil is a double-edged sword for Canada: it eases headline inflation and could give the Bank of Canada more room to hold its current policy rate of 2.25%, but it weighs heavily on Alberta producers and the broader energy complex that anchors so much of the TSX's market cap. With the loonie trading near 71.45 cents U.S., a sustained drop in crude could put renewed pressure on the currency. Watch the energy and materials sectors closely at the open.
Canadian investors should also note that there are no scheduled Bank of Canada communications this week, but the Fed's new hawkish tilt — and any indication of U.S. rate hikes ahead — typically widens the Canada-U.S. rate differential and adds headwinds to the loonie. The next BoC decision is in July.
| Index / Asset | Level | % Change |
|---|
| S&P/TSX Composite | 35,390 | +0.32% |
| TSX Energy Sub-Index | 394 | −1.97% |
| TSX Financials Sub-Index | 742 | +0.83% |
| CAD/USD (Loonie) | $0.7145 | −0.04% |
🛢️ Oil & Gold — Iran Deal Reprices Energy; Gold Recovers
Oil: WTI crude fell 2.15% to approximately $75.14/barrel on Wednesday, with Brent slipping to around $78.34, as markets moved to price in the eventual return of Iranian oil supply once sanctions are lifted. That repricing is continuing this morning — crude is sliding further in early trading as the deal's signing was confirmed. Analysts have noted that the longer-run normalization of Iranian oil exports could push WTI toward the low-$70s range if compliance is smooth, which would be a meaningful disinflation catalyst for North American consumers still feeling the pinch at the gas pump.
Gold: After tumbling nearly 2% on Wednesday as the Fed's hawkish dot plot pushed short-term Treasury yields sharply higher, gold has bounced back this morning. Spot gold is trading near $4,320/oz USD as of early Thursday, recovering from Wednesday's $4,275 close. The Iran deal is reducing safe-haven demand somewhat, but rate-hike uncertainty is keeping a floor under prices. Gold remains historically elevated, still well above the $4,000 threshold it first crossed earlier this year.
| Commodity | Price (USD) | Move |
|---|
| WTI Crude Oil | ~$75.14/bbl | ▼ −2.15% |
| Brent Crude | ~$78.34/bbl | ▼ −1.52% |
| Gold (Spot) | ~$4,320/oz | ▲ Recovering |
🌍 Global Markets — Asia Up on Iran Relief; Europe Mixed
Japan: The Nikkei 225 jumped 1.65% to 71,053 — continuing its remarkable year-to-date run, one of the best-performing major indices globally in 2026. Japanese equities were boosted by the Iran deal and by the Bank of Japan's recent rate hike to a 31-year high, which paradoxically lifted sentiment around the yen's stability and Japan's inflation management. The Nikkei is now up roughly 32% year-to-date.
China/Hong Kong: Markets in greater China were mixed. The Shanghai Composite edged down 0.32% to 4,095, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng declined 2.02% to 23,820. Persistent concerns about consumer demand and global geopolitical uncertainty continue to weigh on Chinese equities, even as export data remains firm on AI-related product demand.
Europe: European bourses closed mixed Wednesday. The DAX (Germany) held near flat at 24,935 (+0.10%), while France's CAC 40 slipped 0.20% to 8,431. The FTSE 100 edged up 0.14% to 10,509. The Euro STOXX 50 added 0.68%. European markets are navigating the same tension between Iran-deal optimism on energy costs and uncertainty over whether the ECB's recent rate hike signals more tightening ahead.
| Index | Level | % Change |
|---|
| Nikkei 225 (Japan) | 71,053 | +1.65% |
| Hang Seng (Hong Kong) | 23,820 | −2.02% |
| Shanghai Composite | 4,095 | −0.32% |
| DAX (Germany) | 24,935 | +0.10% |
| FTSE 100 (UK) | 10,509 | +0.14% |
| CAC 40 (France) | 8,431 | −0.20% |
| Euro STOXX 50 | 6,300 | +0.68% |
📌 What to Watch Today
U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims — Any sign of labour market softening could cool rate-hike fears and extend this morning's futures rally. Consensus will be watching for any uptick above recent averages.
Accenture & Kroger Earnings — Accenture's results will offer a read on enterprise IT spending and AI services demand. Kroger provides a real-time look at grocery price pressures — relevant for Canadian consumers tracking food inflation trends on both sides of the border.
Strait of Hormuz Timeline — Markets will be watching for any specifics on when Iranian oil flows resume and sanctions are formally lifted. The faster that process unfolds, the more downside pressure builds on oil — and on Canadian energy stocks.
Fed Rate-Hike Pricing — With traders now fully pricing in one quarter-point hike by year-end, bond markets will be reactive to any commentary from Fed officials or incoming data that reinforces or complicates that view.
Last Chance Before a Long Weekend — U.S. markets are closed Friday for Juneteenth. Any position adjustments heading into the weekend will be made today. Expect potentially elevated volume and volatility at session close.
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