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Bank of Canada Rate Decision Countdown: What to Expect on July 15

  Published July 4, 2026 In eleven days, the Bank of Canada will make its fifth interest rate call of 2026. If you've got a mortgage renewing, a variable rate that moves with the Bank's decisions, or savings sitting in a high-interest account, this is the date to have circled. Here's where things stand heading into July 15, and what the smart money is expecting. Where the rate sits right now The Bank of Canada has held its policy rate at 2.25% since its last two decisions, with the Bank Rate at 2.50% and the deposit rate at 2.20%. The July 15 announcement, released at 9:45 a.m. ET, will also come with a full Monetary Policy Report, since the Bank publishes its detailed economic projections quarterly alongside the January, April, July, and October decisions. Why most economists expect another hold The case for standing pat comes down to two forces pulling in opposite directions: Inflation is running hot, but mostly for one reason. Canada's headline inflation rate jumped...
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5 Things to Know Today: July 4, 2026

 

Saturday, July 4, 2026

Here's what Canadians need to know this morning — from a strong close on Bay Street to a trade deal that's now on shakier ground, plus what to watch before the Bank of Canada's next rate call.

1. TSX Closes Sharply Higher, Loonie Slips

The S&P/TSX Composite Index jumped 308.17 points, or 0.88%, to close at 35,274.84 on Thursday, July 3, as markets reopened following the Canada Day long weekend. Trading volume topped 89 million shares. Gains were broad-based, with the small-cap S&P/TSX Venture Composite up 2.61% on the day. The Canadian dollar edged lower against the U.S. dollar, with CAD/USD dipping about 0.10% to roughly 70.4 cents. Figures cross-checked against Yahoo Finance, Google Finance, and Bloomberg.

2. CUSMA Trade Deal Left in Limbo After U.S. Declines Extension

The mandatory six-year review of the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement passed its July 1 milestone without a renewal. The U.S. Trade Representative's office confirmed Washington will not extend CUSMA in its current form, pointing to unresolved concerns over non-tariff barriers. The deal doesn't disappear — it stays in force and shifts into annual reviews through its 2036 expiry unless a new agreement is reached sooner. Prime Minister Mark Carney has downplayed expectations of drama, calling for a "constructive exchange," but trade watchers expect prolonged, uncertain negotiations that could stretch well into 2027. For Ontario exporters and cross-border businesses, this means continued uncertainty on tariff exposure — worth watching closely over the summer.

3. Bank of Canada's Next Rate Call: July 15

Mark your calendar: the Bank of Canada's next interest rate announcement and Monetary Policy Report land on Wednesday, July 15. The policy rate has held steady at 2.25% for five consecutive decisions, and bond markets are currently pricing in a high probability of another hold, with only a small chance of a hike. Inflation ticked up to 2.8% in April, largely due to elevated oil prices tied to the Middle East conflict, while core inflation has stayed closer to the 2% target. For anyone with a variable-rate mortgage or a renewal coming up, the message for now is: don't expect a change, but keep an eye on the July 15 announcement.

4. Fuel Excise Tax Break Still in Effect Through Labour Day

A reminder for anyone filling up this summer: the federal government's temporary pause on the fuel excise tax remains in place until Labour Day, saving Canadians up to 10 cents per litre on gasoline and 4 cents per litre on diesel. The measure was introduced as part of the Spring Economic Update 2026 to help offset elevated pump prices linked to global oil market volatility. It's a modest but real saving worth factoring into summer road-trip budgeting.

5. Early Signs Canada's Economy Is Stabilizing

RBC Economics says Canada's economy likely started the second quarter on firmer footing, building on a rebound in April following a soft March. Unemployment remains elevated by historical standards but has been gradually easing since peaking near 7.1% last fall. Wage growth has cooled after slowing sharply in May, which should keep underlying inflation pressures contained in the near term. It's not a boom, but after months of softer data, this is a cautiously encouraging signal heading into the back half of the year.

This post is for general information purposes only and isn't financial advice. Market figures reflect closing data as of July 3, 2026, and are subject to change.

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