Published July 5, 2026
Your morning rundown on the Canadian economy, markets, and money moves — TSX hits a record close, CUSMA talks roll past the deadline, the first CGEB payment lands, and what to expect ahead of the Bank of Canada's July 15 decision.
1. TSX closes at a record high on gold-miner strength
The S&P/TSX Composite climbed 0.9% to close at a record 35,275 on Friday, July 3, powered by gold mining stocks. Gold prices firmed after U.S. nonfarm payrolls for June came in at roughly half the expected pace, fuelling bets that the Federal Reserve could turn more dovish. Agnico Eagle, Wheaton Precious Metals, and Barrick all posted solid gains, while financials like Scotiabank and BMO also moved higher on easing oil-supply concerns. Why it matters: if you hold Canadian equity index funds in your TFSA or RRSP, resource and financial-sector strength has been doing a lot of the heavy lifting this year — worth knowing if your portfolio feels more concentrated than you'd like.
2. CUSMA review rolls on past the July 1 milestone — no deal yet
Canada, the U.S., and Mexico held their first mandatory joint review meeting of CUSMA on July 1, with Minister Dominic LeBlanc confirming trilateral talks took place in Ottawa. No extension has been finalized, and U.S. officials have signalled negotiations will stretch beyond the deadline as they push for changes on autos, steel, and aluminum rules. The three possible outcomes remain on the table: a 16-year extension to 2042, a rolling pattern of annual reviews, or a more disruptive breakdown. Why it matters: the Bank of Canada has flagged that continued uncertainty — not just a bad outcome — is itself a drag on business investment and hiring, which is part of why economists don't expect the BoC to move on rates anytime soon.
3. First Canada Groceries and Essentials Benefit payment landed July 3
The new Canada Groceries and Essentials Benefit (CGEB) — the rebranded and enriched GST/HST credit — issued its first quarterly payment on July 3, worth 25% more than the old credit. A single senior earning $25,000 net could see a total 2026 benefit of up to $950 including the June top-up, while a couple with two kids earning $40,000 could receive up to $1,890 for the year. Payments are recalculated every July based on the prior year's tax return, so filing on time matters. Why it matters: the CRA has flagged a wave of misinformation about a fake "$2,000 federal bonus" and a fake "$680 CGEB lump sum" — those don't exist. Never share your SIN or banking details in response to a text or email claiming to be about the CGEB.
4. Loonie forecasts trimmed as rate-hike odds fade
A Reuters poll of 39 FX strategists now expects the Canadian dollar to strengthen less over the next year than previously forecast, weighed down by CUSMA uncertainty. The median call puts the loonie at roughly 71.4 U.S. cents in three months and around 1.36 per U.S. dollar in a year. Swap markets have pared back expectations for a Bank of Canada rate hike in 2026 to about 10 basis points, down sharply from 60 basis points priced in back in May. Why it matters: a softer loonie makes U.S. travel, cross-border shopping, and imported goods more expensive — but it's a tailwind for Canadian exporters and for USD-heavy investment holdings.
5. All eyes on the Bank of Canada's July 15 rate decision
With the policy rate parked at 2.25% since October 2025, most economists expect another hold on July 15. The case for standing pat: April GDP posted a nine-month best at 0.5% growth, but CUSMA-related uncertainty and a still-soft labour market are keeping the central bank cautious in either direction. A minority of forecasters, including some at National Bank, still see the door open to a hike later this year if growth firms up. Why it matters: if you're renewing a mortgage or carrying a variable-rate loan, prime rate (currently 4.45%) isn't likely to move on the 15th — but keep an eye on the Bank's tone for hints about the rest of 2026.
This article is for general information purposes only and is not financial, legal, or tax advice. Rates, benefit amounts, and figures are current as of publication and subject to change. Consult a licensed professional for advice specific to your situation.
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