Wednesday, July 15, 2026
The Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25% for a sixth consecutive decision this morning, giving Canadians the widely expected outcome while equity, bond and currency markets continue to digest yesterday's cooler-than-expected U.S. inflation report. Here's everything you need to know about today's rate call and where markets stood heading into the session.
Today's Top Story
At 9:45 a.m. ET, the Bank of Canada kept its overnight rate target unchanged at 2.25%, alongside a fresh quarterly Monetary Policy Report. Governor Tiff Macklem and Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers followed with a press conference to explain the decision. Economists had been almost unanimous in expecting a hold, as the Bank continues to balance elevated headline inflation — driven largely by higher energy prices tied to the Strait of Hormuz conflict — against a softer underlying economy and lingering trade uncertainty with the U.S.
TSX: Yesterday's Close
Today's session is unfolding against the backdrop of Tuesday's advance on the S&P/TSX Composite, which climbed as gold miners and energy names led the way ahead of the rate decision.
| Index | Close | Change |
| S&P/TSX Composite | 35,320.54 | +67.82 (+0.19%) |
Basic materials led the index higher as gold prices climbed following Tuesday's softer U.S. inflation print, while energy stocks also found support from firmer oil prices. Financials, which carry heavy weight on the TSX, traded more cautiously ahead of today's rate announcement.
U.S. Markets: Yesterday's Close
Wall Street rallied Tuesday after June's Consumer Price Index came in well below forecasts, easing pressure on the Federal Reserve and lifting tech and semiconductor stocks in particular.
| Index | Close | Change |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 52,508.27 | +9.63 (+0.02%) |
| S&P 500 | 7,543.59 | +28.25 (+0.38%) |
| Nasdaq Composite | 26,107.01 | +233.83 (+0.90%) |
| Russell 2000 | — | +0.39% |
June's CPI showed prices falling 0.4% month-over-month — the largest single-month decline in more than six years — bringing annual inflation down to 3.5%, below the 3.8% economists expected. Core inflation held at 2.6% year-over-year. The reading eased near-term concerns about a Federal Reserve rate hike, though the central bank continues to weigh renewed oil-driven price pressure from the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. Semiconductor names rebounded sharply, with Micron and Nvidia among the session's biggest gainers, while IBM shares fell roughly 25% after warning of softer software and infrastructure demand.
Global Markets
Asian markets closed mixed on Tuesday, with Japan's Topix adding 0.74% and Hong Kong's Hang Seng up 0.52%, while Australia's ASX 200 finished roughly flat. In Europe, major bourses opened Tuesday on a softer note as investors weighed the renewed spike in oil prices, with France's CAC 40, Germany's DAX and the U.K.'s FTSE 100 all trading lower in early hours before paring some losses through the session. European and Asian markets are now trading through Wednesday's session with the Bank of Canada decision and an afternoon U.S. Producer Price Index release both on the radar.
Commodities & Currency
| Commodity / Currency | Level | Change |
| WTI Crude Oil | US$79.34/bbl | +US$1.20 |
| Brent Crude Oil | US$84.73/bbl | +1.7% |
| Gold (August contract) | ~US$4,045/oz | Easing from Tuesday's ~2% jump |
| Canadian Dollar (CAD/USD) | 71.09¢ US | +0.39¢ |
Oil prices remain elevated as tensions around the Strait of Hormuz continue to weigh on global shipping and energy markets, though gains have moderated after President Trump backed away from an earlier threat to impose a 20% surcharge on cargo passing through the strait. Gold pulled back slightly Wednesday morning after Tuesday's sharp rally, as easing inflation fears reduced some safe-haven demand. The loonie held modestly firmer against the greenback, supported by higher crude prices even as broader risk sentiment stayed cautious.
💰 What It Means for You
- Variable-rate mortgages and HELOCs: No change. Prime rate stays at 4.45% at major lenders, so your payment isn't moving this month.
- Fixed-rate mortgages and renewals: Bond yields — not today's decision — drive fixed rates. Watch for any yield movement following the BoC's press conference and updated Monetary Policy Report.
- Savers and GIC holders: Savings account and GIC rates should stay roughly where they are for now.
- At the pumps: Elevated oil prices tied to the Strait of Hormuz situation mean gas prices are likely to stay firm in the near term, which is also a key reason the Bank isn't rushing to cut rates further.
What to Watch
- Today, 10:45 a.m. ET: Governor Tiff Macklem's press conference on the rate decision and Monetary Policy Report.
- Today: U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for June, another read on inflation ahead of the Fed's next move.
- This week: Continued developments around the Strait of Hormuz and their impact on oil prices.
- July 20: Statistics Canada releases June CPI, the next major data point shaping the Bank's path through the fall.
Market data reflects the most recently completed trading sessions as of publication and is provided for informational purposes only. This is not investment advice. Always confirm current rates and figures with your financial institution or a licensed advisor before making decisions.
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