Saturday, July 11, 2026
Here's what Canadians need to know heading into the week, as markets brace for the Bank of Canada's rate decision and the CUSMA trade file keeps grinding along.
1. The Bank of Canada decides Wednesday, and a hold is all but locked in
The Bank of Canada's next rate announcement lands July 15, and virtually every economist on Bay Street expects the overnight rate to stay parked at 2.25% — what would be a sixth straight pause. A stronger-than-expected June jobs report has taken away any urgency to cut, while cooling inflation and lingering trade uncertainty argue against a hike. Expect the accompanying statement to lean on familiar language: steady as she goes.
2. June's jobs report beat expectations, and the jobless rate ticked down
Statistics Canada reported employers added roughly 18,000 jobs in June, ahead of forecasts and building on May's much larger 88,000-job gain. The unemployment rate slipped to 6.5%, back to where it stood in January and near its lowest level in almost two years. Most of the gains came in part-time and private-sector roles — a solid print, if not a spectacular one, and the last major data point the Bank of Canada will see before Wednesday's decision.
3. The TSX is flirting with record territory
The S&P/TSX Composite closed Friday at 35,305, up on the back of the strong jobs print, with financials and retailers leading the way — RBC, TD, BMO and Loblaw all posted gains. Tech names got a lift too, with Constellation Software rallying after a blockbuster U.S. share offering from chipmaker SK Hynix rippled through the sector. Miners were the one soft spot, as gold prices eased off recent highs.
4. CUSMA's mandatory review has come and gone — with no deal
July 1 marked the trade agreement's six-year checkpoint, and the U.S. opted not to lock in a 16-year extension. Instead, Washington is pushing for a rolling annual review process that could run for up to a decade. CUSMA itself doesn't expire and current tariff treatment doesn't change because of this — the deal stays in force until 2036 either way — but it does mean businesses are stuck with more uncertainty for longer. Ottawa says talks with U.S. and Mexican counterparts are continuing on reducing sector-specific tariffs on steel, aluminum, autos and lumber.
5. The loonie is holding steady as oil prices give back Middle East gains
The Canadian dollar traded around 70.7 cents US this week, little changed, even as oil markets stayed choppy on renewed Iran tensions. West Texas Intermediate has been sliding back from its recent spike, last trading near US$71 a barrel, as traders weigh whether the conflict will actually disrupt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Gold also pulled back after a strong run, easing to around US$4,114 an ounce.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research or consult a licensed advisor before making financial decisions
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