Your quick morning rundown on the money news that matters to Canadians.
1. The U.S. won't renew CUSMA "in its current form"
Washington confirmed on July 1 that it will not agree to extend the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) as written, after the three countries held their first mandatory joint review of the deal. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said the agreement "is not renewed" for now, though it stays in force until 2036 and will instead move to a rolling annual review process. Canada's Dominic LeBlanc says Ottawa still wants CUSMA renewed and extended, with talks continuing on outstanding sectoral tariffs affecting steel, aluminum, autos, and lumber. For now, day-to-day trade rules haven't changed, but the uncertainty is expected to weigh on business investment and could resurface as a headwind for the loonie in the months ahead.
2. First Canada Groceries and Essentials Benefit payment lands tomorrow
If you're eligible, keep an eye on your bank account: the first quarterly Canada Groceries and Essentials Benefit (CGEB) payment goes out Friday, July 3. The CGEB replaces the GST/HST credit and pays out 25% more than the old credit, a boost locked in for five years. Combined with June's one-time top-up, a family of four could see up to $1,890 for the 2026-27 benefit year, while a single person could receive up to $950. No application is needed — as long as you've filed a tax return, the CRA calculates it automatically, and direct deposit recipients should see it labelled "Canada FPT" on their statement.
3. The loonie is stuck near a one-year low
USD/CAD is holding around 1.421 this morning, essentially flat overnight and still close to the roughly 14-month low touched in late June. The Canadian dollar's weakness has less to do with Canada and more to do with a firm U.S. dollar, as markets price in the possibility of further Fed rate hikes while the Bank of Canada stays on hold. Yesterday's CUSMA non-renewal news adds another layer of uncertainty; analysts say a durable rebound in the loonie likely needs real progress on trade talks, not just calmer headlines out of the Middle East.
4. Mark your calendar: Bank of Canada decides on rates July 15
The Bank of Canada's key rate has sat at 2.25% since its last cut, and most economists expect another hold at the July 15 announcement. Core inflation has stayed close to target even with elevated energy prices, giving the Bank room to stay patient, but growth remains soft, with 2026 GDP growth forecasts sitting around 1.3%. Watch for any change in tone around the CUSMA fallout — that's the wildcard that could shift rate expectations later this year.
5. Markets reopen after the long weekend, digesting trade headlines
The TSX resumes regular trading today after Wednesday's Canada Day closure, and it does so with the CUSMA non-renewal news fresh on traders' minds. Energy names remain a swing factor given firmer oil prices, while auto and manufacturing-linked stocks could see pressure if Washington's push for higher U.S.-specific content requirements gains traction in the coming weeks of talks. Expect a cautious, headline-driven session as investors wait for more clarity from the next round of trade negotiations later this month.
This post is for general information purposes only and is not financial advice. Always confirm benefit amounts and payment dates directly with the CRA, and speak with a licensed financial advisor for guidance specific to your situation.
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