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Big Bank Earnings Are In: What They Reveal About Your Mortgage Stress

  August 26, 2026 Canada's biggest banks are in the middle of reporting Q3 2026 results, and so far the headline numbers look strong. BMO and Scotiabank both beat analyst estimates this week, and National Bank of Canada reported this morning. RBC, TD, and CIBC follow Thursday, closing out the sector's earnings season. But the number that actually matters to most Canadians isn't profit — it's what the banks are setting aside for loans that might go bad, and what they're saying about who's struggling to keep up. That's where the picture gets more interesting than the headlines suggest. The headline numbers BMO kicked off the week with adjusted profit up 22% year-over-year and return on equity climbing to 14%, with the bank reiterating its target of 15% ROE by the end of fiscal 2027. Scotiabank posted what CEO Scott Thomson called a record quarter: net income of $3 billion, up 21% year-over-year, with adjusted ROE hitting 14.2% — clearing the bank's own med...
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5 Things to Know Today — July 10, 2026: Jobs Report, Oil Prices & TSX Rally

 

Friday, July 10, 2026

Canada's June jobs numbers are out this morning, oil is easing back after a rough week around the Strait of Hormuz, and the TSX just posted a solid gain. Here's what's moving markets and your wallet today.

1. Statistics Canada's June jobs report lands this morning

Statistics Canada released its Labour Force Survey for June today. Economists polled by Reuters had pencilled in a modest gain of about 10,000 jobs, enough to hold the unemployment rate steady at 6.6%. That forecast follows May's surprise pop of 88,000 jobs, which pulled unemployment down sharply from 6.9%. This report is the Bank of Canada's last major economic read before its rate decision next week, so today's numbers matter more than usual for anyone watching mortgage renewals or variable-rate debt.

2. Oil prices cool off after a volatile week near the Strait of Hormuz

Crude gave back some of its recent gains. West Texas Intermediate settled at US$72.08 a barrel on Thursday, down US$1.44, while Brent fell 2.2% to US$76.30. Prices had spiked earlier in the week after fresh U.S.–Iran tensions and reported attacks on tankers near the strait, but they've since eased as mediators work to keep talks alive. For Canadians, that's a modest bit of relief at the pump, though prices remain above where they sat before this year's Middle East disruptions began.

3. TSX closes higher, led by gold miners and banks

The S&P/TSX Composite Index climbed 264.65 points (+0.76%) to close at 35,200.45 on Thursday. Gold miners rallied as bullion prices rose on a softer U.S. dollar, and financials joined in, with RBC and TD both posting solid gains. Meta also announced plans for its first Canadian data centre, to be built in Alberta — another signal that AI infrastructure spending is landing north of the border.

4. CUSMA's July 1 deadline has passed — here's what actually changed

The deadline to renew the Canada-U.S.-Mexico trade agreement for another 16 years came and went on July 1 without a new deal. For now, that means the status quo holds: most Canadian exports to the U.S. remain tariff-free, but existing tariffs on steel, aluminum, and autos stay in place. The three countries now move into a process of annual reviews, which keeps some uncertainty hanging over exporters — though a deal can still be reached at any point along the way.

5. All eyes turn to the Bank of Canada's July 15 rate decision

With today's jobs data now in hand, attention shifts to the Bank of Canada's next announcement on Wednesday, July 15. Markets widely expect the central bank to hold its policy rate at 2.25% for a fifth straight decision, having last cut rates back in October 2025. Barring a major surprise in the labour data, don't expect fireworks — but it's still worth watching if you have a mortgage renewal or line of credit coming up this summer.

This brief is for general information purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Figures are sourced from Statistics Canada, the Bank of Canada, TMX Money, and financial news wire reports as of the morning of July 10, 2026, and are subject to revision.

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