5 Things to Know Today: BoC Decision, TSX 3-Week High, GTA Home Sales Surge

 

Here's what Canadians need to know this Monday — a Bank of Canada decision two days out, a stock market at a three-week high, and a new benefit year kicking in for families.

1. Bank of Canada Decision Lands Wednesday

The Bank of Canada announces its next interest rate decision on Wednesday, July 15, alongside a fresh Monetary Policy Report. After five straight holds, markets are overwhelmingly pricing in a sixth: the overnight rate is expected to stay at 2.25%. Cooling oil-driven inflation fears and a stronger-than-expected June jobs report have taken pressure off the Bank to move in either direction.

What it means for you: If you're carrying a variable-rate mortgage or HELOC, expect no change to your payment this week. Fixed-rate shoppers should watch bond yields going into Wednesday — any surprise in tone from the Bank could move fixed rates faster than the overnight rate itself.

2. TSX Closes at a Three-Week High

The S&P/TSX Composite ended Friday's session up 104.86 points, or 0.30%, to close at 35,305.31 — its best closing level since the index hit a record on June 16, and its third straight weekly gain. The rally was fueled by a stronger-than-forecast June jobs report and continued strength in consumer and financial stocks. The Canadian dollar edged up to 70.69 cents US.

What it means for you: If your RRSP or TFSA holds Canadian equity funds, this is a good moment to check your portfolio's performance — but resist the urge to chase the rally. Stick to your regular contribution schedule rather than trying to time the market.

3. Canada Added 18,200 Jobs in June

Statistics Canada's June labour force survey showed employment rose by 18,200, extending May's much larger 88,000-job gain. The unemployment rate ticked down a tenth of a point to 6.5%. The data landed just days before the Bank of Canada's rate decision and reinforced the case for another hold.

What it means for you: A steadier labour market is generally good news for job security and wage negotiations, but it also lowers the odds of a near-term rate cut. If you were waiting on lower borrowing costs to refinance or buy, plan on today's rates sticking around a while longer.

4. GTA Home Sales Jump 9.4% in June

TRREB reported 6,770 home sales across the Greater Toronto Area in June, up 9.4% from a year earlier, even as new listings fell 12.9%. The average selling price came in at $1,058,658, still down 3.9% year-over-year, though the pace of decline has been shrinking for several months. The board's leadership says a tighter second half of 2026 could bring renewed price growth.

What it means for you: Buyers still have some negotiating room, but shrinking inventory means that window may not last. For landlords and investors, a market that's absorbing supply faster is typically a precursor to firmer rents and values — worth factoring into any near-term buy-or-hold decisions.

5. New Canada Child Benefit Year Starts July 20

A new CCB benefit year begins with the July 20 payment, recalculated using 2025 tax return data. A 2% indexation bump raises the maximum annual amount to $8,157 per child under 6 and $6,883 per child aged 6 to 17. It follows the July 3 launch of the Canada Groceries and Essentials Benefit, which replaced the GST/HST credit with payments 25% higher than before.

What it means for you: Your July 20 CCB deposit may look different from June's — higher or lower — depending on how your 2025 household income compared with 2024. Log into CRA My Account to confirm your new entitlement before you budget around it.

This article is for general informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. Figures are based on the most recently available data at time of publication and are subject to revision.