Thursday, July 16, 2026
Here's what's moving markets and your wallet today — from the Bank of Canada's latest rate call to a fresh jump at the pumps.
1. The Bank of Canada held its key rate at 2.25%
The Bank of Canada kept its overnight rate unchanged at 2.25% this week, and its accompanying Monetary Policy Report flagged that inflation is still running hot enough to keep policymakers cautious. The Bank now expects overall growth of just 0.7% for 2026, picking up to 1.8% in 2027 and 2028 as exports recover and businesses adjust to the new trade landscape with the U.S. Inflation is projected to ease toward 2.5% in the second half of the year and return to the Bank's 2% target by early 2027 — assuming oil prices keep cooling as expected.
What it means for you: Variable-rate mortgage holders and HELOC borrowers get another few months of payment stability, but don't expect a cut soon — the Bank wants to see inflation actually fall before it moves again. If you're renewing this year, it's still worth shopping fixed vs. variable rather than assuming a rate drop is imminent.
2. The loonie has slipped to around 71 cents US
The Canadian dollar has weakened to roughly 71 cents US, pressured by a widening gap between Canadian and U.S. interest rate expectations. A softer loonie makes imported goods, cross-border shopping, and U.S. travel more expensive, even as it gives a boost to Canadian exporters selling into the American market.
What it means for you: If you're planning a U.S. trip or buying anything priced in USD (electronics, some online orders), budget for the weaker exchange rate. If you hold U.S.-dollar investments, this currency move is quietly padding your Canadian-dollar returns.
3. CUSMA tariffs on Canadian goods remain in place
Canada, the U.S., and Mexico are now working through the annual review structure for CUSMA, and a 5% U.S. tariff on Canadian goods remains in effect, with steeper levies still hitting steel, aluminum, and autos. Trade-exposed sectors like manufacturing continue to face uncertainty as the review process plays out.
What it means for you: If you work in autos, steel, or manufacturing — or hold stocks in those sectors — this is a file worth watching closely. For everyday consumers, tariffs on inputs can eventually show up as higher prices on vehicles and manufactured goods.
4. LNG Canada strikes a $1-billion First Nations investment deal
LNG Canada has reached an agreement with five First Nations in northern B.C., giving them the option to invest up to $1 billion in the project's proposed second phase. It's a significant step for Indigenous economic participation in one of Canada's largest energy infrastructure projects, and a signal that LNG expansion in B.C. continues to move forward.
What it means for you: Bigger LNG buildout supports jobs and export revenue in B.C. and Alberta, and it's a theme to watch if you hold energy or infrastructure stocks. It also points to a growing model for Indigenous equity stakes in major Canadian resource projects.
5. Gas prices are climbing on a crude oil rally
Ontario pump prices are ticking up as wholesale rack prices absorb this week's jump in crude, with WTI pushing higher. It's a reversal from the broader slide in oil prices seen since early June, when hopes for improved shipping through the Strait of Hormuz had eased energy costs.
What it means for you: If you're filling up this week, prices at the pump are creeping higher — worth topping up sooner rather than later if your tank's running low. Keep an eye on crude prices generally, since gas-driven inflation is one of the risks the Bank of Canada flagged in its latest report.
That's your 5 Things to Know for today. Check back tomorrow for the next Canadian Money Brief, and see our full BoC rate decision coverage for more on what today's hold means for your mortgage and savings.
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