Here's what's moving your money today, Saturday, July 25, 2026.
1. Oil Slides on Hopes of U.S.-Iran Talks — Gas Prices May Ease
Brent crude pulled back to around $95 a barrel on Friday, down from levels near $100 earlier in the week, after reports that Pakistan is working to broker a path toward peace talks between the U.S. and Iran. The retreat helped drag the national average pump price down slightly to about $1.80 a litre, according to CAA, after several weeks of sharp increases tied to Middle East shipping disruptions.
What it means for you: If you've been holding off filling up, prices could keep drifting lower this week — but the situation remains fluid. Any fresh strike near the Strait of Hormuz or the Red Sea could reverse the trend just as fast as it eased.
2. TSX Closes the Week With a Broad-Based Rally
The S&P/TSX Composite jumped 176 points Friday to close at 35,369.10, recovering most of Thursday's pullback. Gains were broad, with energy the only sector in the red as falling oil prices weighed on producers. It caps a choppy week that included a record close on Wednesday before Thursday's tech-driven dip.
What it means for you: If you hold Canadian equity funds in your TFSA or RRSP, this week is a reminder of how tightly the market is tracking oil and Middle East headlines right now. Don't overreact to single-day swings in either direction.
3. The Fixed-Variable Mortgage Gap Widens to Almost a Full Point
The best advertised 5-year fixed rate now sits near 3.94–3.99%, while the best 5-year variable is down around 3.25–3.45% — one of the widest fixed-variable spreads seen in years. Fixed rates have been creeping up with bond yields on inflation worries, while variable rates stay anchored to the Bank of Canada's rate, which has held at 2.25% for six straight decisions.
What it means for you: Renewing soon? A near-1% gap is a real decision point, not a rounding error. Variable buys you a lower rate today, but only if you can stomach the possibility of a hike if energy-driven inflation forces the Bank's hand later this year.
4. Ottawa and Washington Still Aiming for a Deal Before the Aug. 19 Tariff Deadline
The new U.S. 50% tariff on a range of Canadian goods — including wine, dairy, furniture, and hockey gear — is still set to take effect August 19. Reporting this week indicates both governments are aiming to land interim trade arrangements with Canada and Mexico before the end of 2026, even as the U.S. rolls out separate tariffs on dozens of other countries.
What it means for you: If any of the affected categories are on your shopping list — including cross-border wine orders — the next three weeks are the window to buy before pricing potentially shifts.
5. Mark Your Calendar: The Bank of Canada's Next Call Is September 2
With the overnight rate parked at 2.25% since July's hold, most bank economists expect another hold in September — though a couple of the Big Six have flagged a small risk of a hike later this year if energy-driven inflation proves stickier than expected.
What it means for you: If you're renewing a mortgage or locking in a HELOC rate before then, most lender rate holds run 90–120 days — long enough to bridge past the September decision if you lock in now.
This post is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Rates and prices reflect figures available as of July 24–25, 2026, and are subject to change.
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