5 Things to Know Today: TSX Recap, Oil Eases, Loonie Under Pressure & Alberta's Pipeline Announcement (July 3, 2026)

 

Friday, July 3, 2026

Here's what's moving markets and your money this morning — from Bay Street to the pumps to Ottawa.

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1. TSX gains as investors digest a mixed session

The S&P/TSX Composite closed up 0.31% on Thursday at 34,966.67 points (+109.68), its first full trading day back after the Canada Day holiday. Financials were mixed — Brookfield edged higher while TD Bank slipped nearly 1% — but mining stocks got a lift as gold prices ticked up, with Barrick and Franco-Nevada both up more than 3%. Shopify was the standout, jumping over 5% after settling a dispute with Shopline.

2. Oil prices ease as Iran-US talks continue in Doha

Crude prices pulled back further and are now trading closer to pre-conflict levels after another round of indirect US-Iran talks in Doha, even though the sides didn't reach a breakthrough. That's welcome news for anyone filling up this long weekend, and it's also easing some of the energy-driven inflation pressure that's been complicating the Bank of Canada's job. Geopolitical risk hasn't disappeared, but for now, markets are reading the direction of travel as lower.

3. The loonie stays under pressure near 1.42 to the U.S. dollar

USD/CAD was trading around 1.4195 on Friday, keeping the Canadian dollar near its softest levels of the past year. A weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs report this week actually took some steam out of Fed rate-hike bets, which normally would help the loonie — but fading oil-price support and a wide Bank of Canada–Fed policy gap are keeping CAD capped for now. If you're planning a U.S. trip or have cross-border bills coming due, it's worth keeping an eye on this rate before you convert.

4. Alberta and Ottawa unveil a preferred route for a new West Coast pipeline

Prime Minister Mark Carney and Alberta Premier Danielle Smith announced a preferred route and a list of interested proponents for a new bitumen pipeline to the B.C. coast. It's an early step — a proposal still needs to go to the federal Major Projects Office — but it's a significant signal on energy infrastructure and interprovincial cooperation, with potential long-term implications for Alberta's economy, energy sector jobs, and Canada's export diversification away from a single customer.

5. All eyes turn to the Bank of Canada's July 15 rate decision

With inflation, oil, and labour market data all still shifting, markets are watching closely for signals ahead of the Bank of Canada's next rate announcement on July 15. The central bank has held its policy rate at 2.25% through its last several meetings, caught between a soft labour market that argues for a cut and energy-linked inflation that argues for caution. Easing oil prices this week could tilt the conversation toward a more dovish tone — but there's still almost two weeks of data left to come in before that decision lands.

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This post is for general information purposes only and isn't financial advice. Always do your own research or speak with a licensed advisor before making investment or financial decisions.