Thursday, July 9, 2026
Your quick morning briefing on the Canadian money news that matters.
1. Bank of Canada widely expected to hold rates on July 15
With just a week to go before the Bank of Canada's next rate announcement, markets and economists are almost unanimous: the overnight rate should stay parked at 2.25%, where it's been since October 2025. The Bank is caught between two problems that pull in opposite directions — a soft economy that would normally call for a cut, and inflation running near 2.8-3% (partly due to elevated oil prices) that argues against one. Bond markets are pricing in only a small chance of any move at all. If you're carrying a variable-rate mortgage or HELOC, don't expect relief just yet, but don't expect an increase either. The Bank's updated quarterly Monetary Policy Report, out the same day, will be worth watching for hints about the fall.
2. CUSMA shifts to annual reviews after the deadline quietly passed
July 1 came and went without Canada, the U.S., and Mexico agreeing to a fresh 16-year extension of the CUSMA trade deal. That doesn't mean the agreement is dead — it still runs until 2036 — but the countries now move into a cycle of annual reviews instead, with no guaranteed resolution before this fall's U.S. midterms, according to Canada's former chief trade negotiator. Existing tariffs on steel, aluminum, autos, and lumber remain in place in the meantime. For everyday consumers, the practical upshot is more months of uncertainty for prices on cross-border goods and for any business that depends on U.S. trade — worth keeping in mind if you're budgeting for a big purchase tied to imported materials.
3. TSX slides as Iran tensions send oil prices higher
Canada's benchmark index dropped about 1.3% on Wednesday after comments from President Trump that a memorandum of understanding with Iran was "over," reviving fears of disruption to global energy supplies. Oil jumped more than 7% on the news, which is a mixed bag for the TSX: energy producers benefit from higher crude, but the broader market — especially financials and miners — took a hit on renewed inflation worries. If you hold Canadian energy stocks or ETFs, this is the kind of headline-driven swing worth watching rather than reacting to.
4. Housing market shows its first real signs of stabilizing
The latest CREA figures show national home sales rose 5.5% month-over-month in May, with the national average price climbing back above $700,000 for the first time in nearly two years. The more reliable MLS Home Price Index — which strips out which types of homes happened to sell — was essentially flat, down just 0.1% from April and 4.1% from a year ago, the smallest annual decline all year. Ontario led the rebound. With 4.8 months of supply nationally, the market remains broadly balanced rather than tilted sharply toward buyers or sellers. CREA's next full statistics package lands July 15, the same day as the Bank of Canada decision.
5. The loonie is caught between oil and the Fed
The Canadian dollar strengthened slightly against the U.S. dollar on Wednesday, trading near 1.4160-1.4178, as the same oil price jump weighing on the TSX gave the loonie a lift — Canada's currency tends to track crude. That's a rare bit of good news after the loonie touched one-year lows near 1.42 in late June on expectations of a hawkish U.S. Federal Reserve. Markets are also watching for the Fed's June meeting minutes for further clues on U.S. rate policy, which continues to be one of the bigger swing factors for the exchange rate. If you're planning U.S. travel or online shopping in USD, exchange rates remain choppy — it may be worth watching for a few days rather than converting all at once.
This briefing is for general informational purposes and isn't financial advice. Figures are sourced from the Bank of Canada, CREA, and financial market data as of July 8-9, 2026.
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