Tuesday, July 28, 2026 — Here's what's moving markets and your wallet today, in five minutes or less.
1. The TSX just posted its best close of the year
The S&P/TSX Composite closed Monday at 35,568.14, up 0.56% on the day, as a weekend pause in the US-Iran conflict sparked a relief rally across global markets. It's the third time in a week the index has flirted with record territory. The rally has been broad-based — energy names cooled off as oil retreated, while banks and industrials picked up the slack.
What it means for you: If you hold Canadian equity funds in your TFSA or RRSP, this is a good week to check your statement — but resist the urge to chase the rally by moving money in reaction to a single good week. Stick to your regular contribution schedule.
2. Gas prices are finally coming down
With Brent crude sliding toward the mid-$80s after the US-Iran truce held over the weekend, pump prices are easing across Ontario after weeks of increases. Regular gas in the Toronto area is drifting back down from recent highs near $1.85/L, and further declines are forecast through the week if the truce holds and oil keeps retreating.
What it means for you: If you can put off filling up by a day or two, prices are trending in your favour this week. Just don't count on it lasting — this market has whipsawed on every new headline out of the Middle East all summer.
3. The Fed decides tomorrow — and it matters here too
The US Federal Reserve wraps its two-day meeting Wednesday, with markets pricing roughly a 64-65% chance it holds its benchmark rate at 3.50-3.75%. Chair Kevin Warsh's 2:30pm ET press conference will get more attention than the decision itself, since the Fed's tone on inflation and tariffs feeds directly into bond yields on both sides of the border.
What it means for you: A hawkish Fed tone tends to push Canadian bond yields — and fixed mortgage rates — higher even without a Bank of Canada move. If you're renewing soon, it's worth getting a rate hold locked in before Wednesday afternoon rather than after.
4. A Korean chip sell-off is rattling tech portfolios
South Korea's Kospi index tumbled into correction territory Monday, with SK Hynix and Samsung both dropping double digits, dragging US Nasdaq futures lower ahead of a heavy earnings week. Microsoft and Meta report Wednesday, with Apple and Amazon following Thursday — four of the biggest weights in most global tech and index funds.
What it means for you: If your RRSP or TFSA leans heavily on US tech or global index funds, expect some bumpiness this week regardless of what the Fed does. That's a normal part of holding these funds long-term, not a signal to sell.
5. CREA trimmed its 2026 housing forecast — again
The Canadian Real Estate Association's latest outlook now expects national home sales to fall 1.4% in 2026, a downgrade from its earlier call for a small gain. The culprit is a shrinking population base — Statistics Canada has reported three straight quarterly declines, driven largely by fewer new permanent immigrants. Ontario remains the only province CREA expects to see sales rise this year.
What it means for you: If you're a seller hoping for a hot fall market to make up for a slow spring, temper expectations — CREA's own numbers suggest a modest recovery at best. If you're a buyer, fewer competing offers could work in your favour, especially outside Ontario.
This is general information, not personalized financial advice. Talk to a licensed advisor or mortgage broker before making decisions based on market moves.
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