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June Jobs Report: What It Means for the Bank of Canada's July 15 Decision

  Friday, July 10, 2026 Statistics Canada releases its June Labour Force Survey today, and the timing couldn't matter more. This is the last major economic data point before the Bank of Canada's next interest rate decision on July 15, 2026 — and whichever way the jobs numbers break, they'll shape what happens to borrowing costs for the rest of the summer. What Economists Are Expecting Consensus forecasts point to a modest but positive jobs report. Economists expect Canada added around 10,000 jobs in June, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 6.6%. That would follow a much stronger May, when the economy added 88,000 jobs and the unemployment rate actually fell by 0.3 percentage points. In other words, June's report is expected to show a cooling-off after May's surprise strength — not a reversal, but a return to a more modest pace of hiring. Indicator May 2026 June 2026 (Forecast) Net Employment Change +88,000 jobs +10,000 jobs (expected) Unemployment Rate 6....

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Markets Today: TSX Holds Near Records as Wall Street Rallies and the Loonie Stays Under Pressure

 

Friday, July 10, 2026

Global markets head into the weekend on a firmer footing. Wall Street closed out Thursday's session with broad gains led by chipmakers, Asian markets extended their advance on Friday morning, and oil steadied after a choppy week driven by renewed U.S.-Iran tensions. Here in Canada, all eyes are on this morning's June jobs report — the Bank of Canada's last major economic read before next Wednesday's interest rate decision.

🇨🇦 Canadian Markets

The S&P/TSX Composite closed Thursday at 35,200.45, up roughly 0.76% on the day, with mining and financial stocks doing the heavy lifting. Gold-linked miners such as Barrick, Agnico Eagle, and Franco-Nevada firmed as gold prices climbed on a softer U.S. dollar, while Canada's big banks — RBC and TD among them — also added to the gains. The index remains within a few hundred points of its all-time closing high of 35,389.58, set on June 16, even after easing back slightly from last week's push toward record territory. Materials and financials remain the biggest swing factors heading into today's session, alongside energy, which continues to move on Middle East headlines.

Jobs day in Canada: Statistics Canada released its June Labour Force Survey this morning. Economists surveyed by Reuters had expected a modest gain of roughly 10,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate holding at 6.6%, following May's surprise gain of 88,000 jobs. RBC economists noted the labour market has been unusually volatile in recent months, cautioning against reading too much into any single report. The data lands just days ahead of the Bank of Canada's next rate announcement on Wednesday, July 15, making it the central bank's final major snapshot of the economy before that decision. A stronger-than-expected print could lift bank and consumer-cyclical stocks while nudging rate-cut expectations lower; a soft one could support gold and other defensive names.

Loonie watch: The Canadian dollar remains on the back foot, trading in the neighbourhood of 1.415–1.417 per U.S. dollar this week — not far off a one-year low near 1.42 touched in late June. The currency continues to face pressure from a firmer U.S. dollar, the ongoing CUSMA trade-review uncertainty following the July 1 deadline, and softer oil prices relative to their recent peaks.

🇺🇸 U.S. Markets

Wall Street closed higher on Thursday as investors rotated back into beaten-down technology names:

  • Dow Jones Industrial Average: +139.02 points (+0.27%) to close at 52,487.41
  • S&P 500: +0.81% to close at 7,543.64
  • Nasdaq Composite: +1.30% to close at 26,206.89

Semiconductor stocks led the advance, with the VanEck Semiconductor ETF climbing more than 2% as Micron and SanDisk both posted strong gains. Sentiment was buoyed by heavy demand for SK Hynix's U.S. share offering, and Meta shares jumped after the company said it plans to have its own AI chip in production by September. Financials also participated in the rally as bond yields and oil prices eased. Traders are now looking ahead to the start of U.S. second-quarter earnings season, with names like Delta Air Lines and PepsiCo among the first to report.

🌍 Other Major Markets

Asia: Asian markets extended their rally into Friday. Japan's Nikkei 225 jumped about 1.8% to roughly 68,942, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng added around 0.8% to near 24,229. In India, the Sensex and Nifty 50 both opened sharply higher, tracking the firmer tone across the region and on Wall Street, even as the unresolved Iran conflict continued to simmer in the background.

Europe: European bourses have been finding their footing after a bumpy stretch tied to Middle East headlines, with the pan-European Stoxx 600 among the region's stronger performers this week as investors rotated into more defensive sectors.

🛢️ Oil, Gold & Currencies

Crude oil steadied to close out the week after a volatile few sessions. Brent crude was trading near $76 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate sat just below $72, as technical talks between the U.S. and Iran continued despite a renewed flare-up in fighting that had sharply reduced tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz earlier in the week. The status of the earlier ceasefire remains unclear after comments from President Trump suggesting the truce had broken down.

Gold has cooled off its earlier highs, settling around the $4,157-an-ounce level in the most recent session — still a historically elevated price, but down more than 20% from the record intraday spike seen when the Iran conflict first escalated earlier this year.

💡 What It Means for Canadians

With the loonie hovering near one-year lows, anything priced in U.S. dollars — from cross-border shopping to U.S. travel and imported goods — continues to cost more for Canadian consumers. At the same time, elevated oil prices are a double-edged sword: they support the energy-heavy TSX and Canadian export revenue, but they also keep upward pressure on pump prices and shipping costs. With the Bank of Canada's rate decision just days away, today's jobs numbers will be closely watched by anyone with a variable-rate mortgage, a HELOC, or savings sitting in a high-interest account.

This markets summary is for general informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Figures reflect the most recent available data at time of publication and may change as markets continue to trade. Always do your own research or consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.

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