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Gas Is Still $1.81 a Litre: Why Pump Prices Won't Fall (and What to Do Before Winter)

  Canadians hoping for relief at the pump got bad news heading into this week: it isn't coming soon. The national average for regular gas was $1.81 a litre on Friday, according to Kalibrate, with provincial averages ranging from $1.557 in Alberta to $2.156 in Newfoundland, per GasBuddy. That's after a big policy move. On Friday the G7 announced plans to release 100 million barrels of oil right away, starting with diesel. Brent crude dipped on the news, then climbed back to about US$102 a barrel by the afternoon. Don't expect the release to show up at your station, because crude is only half the story. Crude oil explains only half your pump price Wood Mackenzie's Jim Mitchell says crude makes up 50 to 60 per cent of the retail price of gas. The rest is the cost of refining it, and that's where the squeeze is. Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem pointed to damaged refining capacity worldwide in a Sept. 21 speech, noting that pump prices reflect crude roughly US$40 a ...
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Daily Markets Update: TSX Slips as Oil Jumps and Wall Street Wavers on Renewed U.S.-Iran Tensions

 

Thursday, July 9, 2026

Global markets are digesting another bout of Middle East risk this week. Wednesday's session saw a fresh flare-up between the U.S. and Iran send oil prices sharply higher, rattling equities in Toronto, New York and across Europe, even as Asian markets bounced back into Thursday's session. Here's your rundown of where the major indexes, commodities and the loonie stand heading into today.

🇨🇦 Canadian Markets: TSX

The S&P/TSX Composite Index fell 336.79 points, or 0.96%, to close Wednesday at 34,935.80, down from Tuesday's close of 35,272.59. The pullback came as renewed U.S.-Iran hostilities pushed oil prices higher, which typically helps Canada's energy-heavy index — but this time, financials and mining stocks led the retreat as gold prices slid and rate-cut hopes cooled. Agnico Eagle Mines and Barrick Gold each fell more than 2%, while Wheaton Precious Metals dropped about 2% on the back of weaker gold. Tech names also weighed on the index, with Shopify and Constellation Software each down roughly 4%.

Investors are now looking ahead to the Bank of Canada's July 15 rate decision, where markets widely expect the central bank to hold its key rate steady at 2.25%.

🇺🇸 U.S. Markets

Wall Street closed mixed on Wednesday as oil-driven inflation worries weighed on blue chips while tech held up better:

  • Dow Jones Industrial Average: down 576.76 points (-1.09%) to 52,348.39
  • S&P 500: down 0.28% to 7,482.71
  • Nasdaq Composite: up 0.20% to 25,870.65

The split reflected a rotation: energy and defensive names gained ground on the oil spike, while several megacap tech stocks helped keep the Nasdaq in positive territory. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield ticked up to around 4.59%, and minutes from the Federal Reserve's June meeting, released Wednesday, underscored the Fed's ongoing concern about inflation risk even as labour-market worries have eased.

🇬🇧🇩🇪🇫🇷 European Markets

Europe bore the brunt of Wednesday's selloff, with all three major bourses closing sharply lower on the geopolitical escalation:

  • FTSE 100 (UK): down 176.84 points (-1.66%) to 10,489.04
  • DAX (Germany): down 567.80 points (-2.23%) to 24,897.45
  • CAC 40 (France): down 183.58 points (-2.18%) to 8,252.66

Banking and defence-sensitive names led declines, with German and French banks among the hardest hit. However, European futures were pointing higher heading into Thursday's session, with the Euro Stoxx 50 and Stoxx 600 rebounding as oil prices eased slightly from Wednesday's spike.

🌏 Asian Markets

Asian markets shrugged off the Middle East jitters in Thursday's session, closing broadly higher:

  • Nikkei 225 (Japan): up 1.38% to 67,743.85
  • Kospi (South Korea): up 0.62% to 7,291.91
  • ASX 200 (Australia): down 0.26% to 8,762.50

Tech and chipmaker stocks led the gains in Tokyo and Seoul, supported by strong demand signals from the semiconductor sector, even as Australia's benchmark lagged slightly.

🛢️ Commodities & the Canadian Dollar

  • WTI Crude Oil: settled at $73.52 USD/barrel, up 4.37%
  • Brent Crude Oil: settled at $78.19 USD/barrel, up 5.43%
  • Gold: trading around $4,075 USD/oz, roughly flat after touching a one-week low near $4,030 on Wednesday
  • Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD): 1.4178, with the loonie little changed at roughly 70.5 U.S. cents

Oil's sharp move higher is the story to watch this week. Both benchmarks are now up more than 5% since Monday as the U.S. and Iran exchanged fresh strikes, reviving fears about disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz — a key artery for global crude shipments. Higher energy prices are a double-edged sword for Canada: good news for oil-producing provinces and the TSX's energy weighting, but a potential headache for the Bank of Canada if it feeds through to pump prices and headline inflation ahead of next week's rate decision.

💡 What This Means for You

  • At the pump: Expect gas prices to creep higher in the coming days as crude costs work their way through to the retail level.
  • Your portfolio: If you hold Canadian bank or growth/tech stocks, Wednesday's pullback is a reminder of how sensitive markets remain to Middle East headlines — volatility may persist heading into the BoC's July 15 decision.
  • Mortgage & savings rates: With the Bank of Canada expected to hold at 2.25% next week, don't expect near-term relief on variable rates, but savings account and GIC rates should stay attractive for now.

Market data sourced from TMX Money, CNBC, Trading Economics and Bank of Canada as of market close/session times noted above. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.

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