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Fed Holds Rates, Wall Street Tumbles as Oil Swings on New Iran Strikes
July 30, 2026
Wall Street booked its worst session since April on Wednesday after Iran fired ballistic missiles at U.S. forces in the Middle East and the Federal Reserve delivered its most divided vote in nearly a decade — holding rates steady but with three officials pushing for an immediate hike. The U.S. struck back overnight with what it called a "heavy wave" of attacks on Iran, and oil has swung sharply since. The TSX pulled back from Tuesday's record close, and Asian markets are mixed this morning as chip stocks keep sliding. Here's what moved markets overnight and what it means for your wallet.
🇨🇦 TSX: Pulls Back From Tuesday's Record
The S&P/TSX Composite fell 1.16% to close at 35,333.78 on Wednesday, giving back part of Tuesday's record-high finish as rising bond yields hit financials and gold miners slid on a weaker gold price. RBC and TD Bank each fell more than 3%. Energy was the bright spot, with Canadian Natural Resources and Cenovus both gaining more than 4% on higher crude and strong Q2 results.
| Index | Close | Change |
| S&P/TSX Composite | 35,333.78 | -1.16% |
Movers: RBC -3.0%, TD Bank -3.2%, Scotiabank >-1.5%, BMO/Brookfield/CIBC ~-2% each, Barrick -2.9%, Agnico Eagle -2%+, Allied Gold -16% after abandoning a proposed sale, Canadian Natural +4.6%, Cenovus +5%.
🇺🇸 Wall Street: Worst Day Since April
All three major U.S. indexes closed sharply lower after the Fed's hawkish-leaning hold and the overnight Iran missile attack. The Dow's 1,153-point drop was its steepest single-day decline since April 2025. Chip stocks led the damage: Nvidia fell 3.6%, AMD dropped 5.5%, and Broadcom lost 2.8%, extending the AI-capex jitters that have gripped markets all week.
| Index | Close | Change |
| Dow Jones | 51,594.14 | -2.19% |
| S&P 500 | 7,316.15 | -1.52% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 24,442.94 | -1.74% |
The Nasdaq 100 is now more than 10% below its June record, putting the tech-heavy benchmark in correction territory. The 10-year Treasury yield jumped to 4.70% (from 4.61% Tuesday) as bond markets priced in a higher chance of a September rate hike following the Fed's 9-3 vote — the most hawkish dissent split in nearly a decade, with regional presidents Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari, and Lorie Logan all pushing for an immediate quarter-point increase.
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh held his ground on withholding forward guidance: "Did the Fed take an explicit change in its policy rate today? No, but I think that's the beginning of the story," he told reporters, signalling markets should expect more volatility with less hand-holding from the central bank ahead.
🌍 Europe & Asia
Europe (Wednesday close): European markets were mixed and largely muted ahead of the Fed decision. London's FTSE 100 edged up 0.34% to 10,908.41, while Germany's DAX was flat (-0.01%) at 25,460.48 and France's CAC 40 slipped 0.60% to 8,408.27.
Asia (Thursday): Markets are mixed as South Korea's Kospi keeps swinging after a brutal two-day, 16% slide — down another 1.3% to 5,587.82 Thursday, now more than 35% off its June all-time high even after this year's AI-driven run-up. Samsung Electronics rose 2.4% on a record quarterly operating profit, while SK Hynix fell 4% as its own record profit still missed elevated expectations. Japan's Nikkei 225 gained 0.6% to 61,778.02, and Taiwan's Taiex added 0.8% on chipmaker TSMC's 1.8% gain. Hong Kong's Hang Seng was roughly flat at 25,779.70, mainland China's Shanghai Composite fell 1.2%, and Australia's ASX 200 slipped 0.9%.
🛢️ Oil, Gold & the Loonie
Oil: Brent crude spiked 6.6% Wednesday to roughly $89.60 a barrel after Iran's missile attack, then eased back about 1% Thursday to $87.18 once the U.S. carried out its retaliatory strikes overnight, as traders weighed limited but not fully disrupted tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. U.S. WTI followed the same pattern: up 6.4% Wednesday to roughly $84.30, then down about 0.9% Thursday to $83.74.
Gold: Bullion climbed back above $4,080 an ounce Thursday, up roughly 1% on the week, rebounding from the nine-month low near $3,975 hit in mid-July as investors sought safety amid the Fed's hawkish dissent and the flare-up in the Middle East.
Loonie: USD/CAD stayed choppy through the FOMC decision, trading in the 1.40–1.41 range as the Canadian dollar gave back some of Tuesday's gains against a resurgent U.S. dollar. Soft oil prices earlier in the session and the Bank of Canada's own dovish tone continue to cap the loonie's upside heading into the long weekend before Friday's jobs data.
- Gas prices: Wednesday's oil spike likely means a bump at the pump over the next few days, even with Thursday's pullback — expect another round of price swings as the Iran situation develops.
- RRSP/TFSA holders: If you hold U.S. tech or broad index funds, Wednesday was a rough day — but corrections like this are a normal, if uncomfortable, part of long-term investing. Avoid knee-jerk selling into a one-day drop.
- Mortgage shoppers: Rising U.S. bond yields tend to pull Canadian fixed mortgage rates up with them over time. If you're renewing soon, this is a good week to lock in a rate quote rather than wait.
- Cross-border spenders and travellers: A choppy loonie near 1.41 keeps U.S. shopping and travel costs elevated; keep an eye on the rate before booking a U.S. trip or making a large USD purchase.
📅 What to Watch Today
- U.S. Q2 GDP and weekly jobless claims land this morning — a key read on whether the economy can absorb higher-for-longer rates.
- Big Tech earnings continue with Apple and Amazon reporting after today's close, following Wednesday's post-bell numbers from Microsoft and Meta.
- Iran-U.S. developments remain the wildcard for oil and risk sentiment through the rest of the week.
- Markets are still pricing meaningfully higher odds of a Fed rate hike at the September meeting — a shift worth watching if you hold U.S.-dollar assets or are planning cross-border spending.
- The next Bank of Canada rate decision is September 2 — today's bond-market moves will factor into that call.
Market data as of Wednesday's close (July 29) and Thursday morning trading (July 30). Figures are sourced from multiple market data providers and may be subject to revision intraday.
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