Gas Prices Are Spiking Again — Here's How to Protect Your Wallet as the Iran Conflict Escalates

 

Published July 20, 2026

If it feels like you're filling up more often for the same money lately, you're not imagining it. Oil markets jolted higher to start the week, and Canadian drivers are almost certain to see it at the pump in the next few days.

What just happened

Brent crude — the global benchmark that drives Canadian gas pricing — jumped nearly 4% on Monday to trade above US$90 a barrel, its highest level since mid-June, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate traded near US$84. The move came after the United States and Iran escalated hostilities over the weekend, including strikes on vessels attempting to transit the Strait of Hormuz and an attack on an oil facility in Kuwait.

That strait matters enormously to your gas bill: roughly a fifth of the world's oil supply normally passes through it. When shipping through it slows or stalls, traders price in a "risk premium" almost immediately — and that shows up at Canadian pumps within days, not weeks.

What it means for you: The last time oil moved this sharply, GasBuddy tracked the national average gas price climbing to $1.674 a litre — up 3.4 cents in a single week — with analysts warning of another 5 to 10 cents a litre in the days that followed. In the GTA specifically, pump prices jumped from 164.9 to 172.9 cents a litre overnight, with diesel rising even faster. With Brent now back above $90, a similar move at the pumps this week is a real possibility.

Why this hits harder than a typical price swing

Gas is the most visible cost, but it's not the only one. Diesel prices tend to rise even faster than gasoline during oil shocks like this one — and diesel is what moves nearly everything on Canadian grocery store shelves. Higher fuel costs for trucking and shipping filter into food prices with a lag of a few weeks to a couple of months, which is worth watching if your grocery bill creeps up later this summer even after gas prices stabilize.

There's a small silver lining for Canada specifically: as a major oil producer, the country benefits on the government-revenue and energy-sector side even as households feel the pinch at the pump. That doesn't put money back in your wallet directly, but it's part of why you may hear this framed differently in national economic coverage than in your own monthly budget.

Five ways to soften the hit right now

1. Fill up before the next overnight jump, not after. Price increases in Canada are typically announced and applied overnight. If you can top up your tank the evening before a predicted increase rather than the morning after, you avoid paying the higher rate on your next few fill-ups.

2. Use a price-tracking app. Apps like GasBuddy crowd-source real-time prices by station and often flag predicted increases a day in advance — genuinely useful when prices are moving daily instead of monthly.

3. Check big-box and membership stations first. Costco, and grocery-chain stations tied to loyalty programs (PC Optimum, Scene+, Petro-Points), routinely price several cents a litre below the corner-store average, and that gap tends to widen during spikes, not shrink.

4. Stack a cashback or gas-rewards credit card if you already carry one. If you're already paying with plastic at the pump, make sure it's the card in your wallet that actually earns a bonus rate on fuel — 2–4% back on gas adds up fast when the per-litre price is elevated for weeks at a time. If you don't have one and drive often, it's worth a five-minute comparison next time you're reviewing your cards.

5. Adjust driving habits for the duration of the spike, not permanently. Combining errands into one trip, easing off hard acceleration, and keeping tires properly inflated can meaningfully cut fuel use — CAA estimates aggressive driving alone can increase highway fuel consumption by a significant margin. These are short-term levers you can pull without any big lifestyle change.

What to watch this week

Keep an eye on whether commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz resumes — that's the single biggest lever on where oil, and therefore gas, goes from here. Also watch for any G7 or federal government response; Canada's position as a major energy exporter has already come up in international discussions about easing reliance on the strait. We'll keep tracking the numbers in our Daily Markets Update and update this piece if the picture changes materially.

This article is for general information and isn't personalized financial advice. Prices and figures are current as of publication and can change quickly given the pace of events.