July 2, 2026
The Bottom Line: Canadian markets reopen today after the Canada Day holiday, picking up from a Toronto Stock Exchange that closed at a record-adjacent 34,856.99 on Tuesday. U.S. stocks eked out a mixed finish Wednesday as investors trimmed AI-related winners heading into the holiday-shortened week. Overnight, a fresh selloff in semiconductor stocks slammed South Korea's Kospi and spilled into Japan, while oil slid to its lowest level since before the Middle East conflict began. The loonie is holding steady near 1.42 to the U.S. dollar.
🇨🇦 Canada: TSX Reopens Today After Canada Day Closure
The Toronto Stock Exchange, TSX Venture Exchange, and Montréal Exchange were closed Wednesday for the Canada Day holiday and resume regular trading hours this morning. The last confirmed close came Tuesday, June 30, when the S&P/TSX Composite Index rose 33.17 points, or 0.10%, to finish at 34,856.99 — a fresh high for the index as investors digested stronger-than-expected Canadian GDP data. An advance estimate pointed to a further 0.1% expansion in May, adding to signs the economy is stabilizing after earlier tariff-related softness.
Sector-wise on Tuesday, banks and energy names led the gains, with RBC and Canadian Natural Resources each up roughly 1%, while miners lagged — Agnico Eagle slipped about 1.5%. The TSX enters today's session having posted its longest quarterly winning streak in three decades.
On the currency front, the Canadian dollar is little changed, with USD/CAD sitting at 1.4216 — near its weakest level in about a year. The loonie has softened roughly 2.3% over the past month as a hawkish U.S. Federal Reserve outlook has broadly supported the greenback against G10 currencies. The Bank of Canada, for its part, held its key rate at 2.25% at its last meeting and signaled it sees risks on both sides of its inflation and employment mandate — markets are watching for the next decision later this month.
🇺🇸 United States: Wall Street Cools to Start Q3 After Best First Half Since 2020
U.S. markets were open Wednesday for a pre-holiday session (markets are closed tomorrow, July 3, in observance of Independence Day — check your broker for exact hours). Major indexes gave back a little ground after closing out a historically strong first half of 2026:
- Dow Jones Industrial Average: 52,305.24, down 13.96 points (-0.03%)
- S&P 500: 7,483.23, down 0.22%
- Nasdaq Composite: 26,040.03, down 0.66%
- Russell 2000: 3,012.59, down 0.39%
The Dow briefly touched a new intraday record of 52,742.66 before fading as Caterpillar dropped almost 7%. The bigger story was another leg down in semiconductor names: Micron tumbled more than 10%, with Intel, AMD, and Applied Materials all posting steep losses as traders locked in profits after chip stocks surged more than 80% in the first half of the year. On the upside, Meta Platforms jumped nearly 9% after unveiling plans to launch a cloud computing business to monetize excess AI computing capacity, and Microsoft and Apple also advanced.
For context on just how strong the first half was: the Dow gained 8.9% (its best first half since 2021), the S&P 500 rose 9.6%, the Nasdaq climbed 12.8%, and the small-cap Russell 2000 surged nearly 22% — its best first-half showing since 1991.
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, speaking at the European Central Bank's forum in Sintra, Portugal, alongside ECB President Christine Lagarde and Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, noted that inflation expectations have eased over the past month, though he stopped short of signaling near-term rate cuts. Separately, data released Wednesday showed private-sector hiring slowed more than expected in June, and investors are now looking ahead to Thursday's jobs report for further clues on the labour market and the Fed's next move.
🌏 Asia: Chip Stock Rout Slams South Korea, Spills Into Japan
Asian markets are sharply lower this morning in the biggest regional story of the day. South Korea's Kospi sank as much as 7.9% to around 7,648, with heavyweight chipmakers driving the decline — SK Hynix lost roughly 14.6% and Samsung Electronics tumbled about 9.1%. The selloff followed a strong first-half rally that left the market — up more than 90% year-to-date at its peak — vulnerable to a sharp pullback. Adding pressure, South Korea's annual inflation rate accelerated to 3.2% in June, its highest since December 2023, reinforcing bets the Bank of Korea will stay tight for longer.
The chip selloff spread to Japan, where the Nikkei 225 fell about 2.5% to roughly 68,733, dragged down by a more than 15% plunge in Kioxia, Japan's most valuable listed company, and a 7.4% drop in chip-equipment maker Tokyo Electron. Taiwan's Taiex also slipped as TSMC came under pressure. Analysts described the move largely as profit-taking after an extraordinary run — SK Hynix remains up more than 200% year-to-date and Kioxia has surged roughly 600%, even after today's declines.
The broader MSCI All Country World Index was down about 0.2% in early trading, with Apple's reported talks to buy chips from two Chinese semiconductor makers adding to jitters across the sector.
🇪🇺 Europe: Futures Point Lower as Chip Weakness Crosses Over
European markets are set to open on the back foot, tracking the overnight selloff in Asian semiconductor names. Futures for the Stoxx 600, DAX, and CAC 40 pointed modestly lower ahead of the open, with chip-sensitive names like ASML, Infineon, and STMicroelectronics likely to be in focus given their exposure to the same memory and AI-hardware pressures hitting Korean and Japanese peers. European markets had closed out June with their strongest quarterly performance since 2020, so today's session will test whether that momentum can hold in the face of the tech pullback.
🛢️ Commodities & Currencies
- WTI Crude Oil: around $67.74–$68.73/barrel, down roughly 1.2% and now at its lowest level since before the Middle East conflict began, as U.S.-Iran talks in Qatar continue and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz gradually normalizes.
- Gold: trading near $4,100/oz, still recovering from a multi-week slide as the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields ease slightly.
- USD/CAD: 1.4216, essentially flat, with the loonie near a one-year low against a broadly firm U.S. dollar.
- Bitcoin: hovering in the $58,600–$59,850 range, choppy alongside broader risk-asset sentiment.
What This Means for Canadian Investors
With the TSX back open today after the holiday, expect early trading to take cues from the overnight chip rout rather than Tuesday's stronger domestic GDP print. Canadian investors with exposure to tech and AI-adjacent names — directly or through U.S.-listed ETFs — may see more volatility than the broader index, which remains anchored by heavyweight financials and energy names that have been comparatively resilient. The softer loonie also remains a factor for anyone with cross-border spending, U.S. dollar-denominated debt, or plans to travel over the summer.
This post is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Market data reflects the most recently confirmed session closes and available intraday figures as of publication and is subject to change.
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