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The Fed Decides Wednesday — Here's What It Means for Your Mortgage, the Loonie, and Your RRSP

  Monday, July 27, 2026 The U.S. Federal Reserve hands down its rate decision at 2 p.m. ET on July 29. For most Canadians it will feel like background noise. It isn't — here's the plain-language version of why it touches your mortgage, your cross-border spending, and whatever's sitting in your RRSP. The short version: Markets are pricing roughly a two-in-three chance the Fed holds its rate at 3.50%–3.75% on Wednesday. That's not the story. The story is that this is one of the least certain "sure thing" holds in years — and Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET could matter more than the decision itself. Why this meeting is different The Fed has held its benchmark rate steady at 3.50%–3.75% through every meeting so far in 2026. On paper, Wednesday should be more of the same. Under the hood, it's messier. Persistent inflation, running well above the Fed's 2% target for a fifth straight year, has kept a rate hike on the table. The oil-...
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Oil Crashes 7% as U.S.–Iran Truce Sparks a Global Market Rally: Your July 27 Markets Update

 

Monday, July 27, 2026

Markets are waking up to the biggest piece of good news in weeks. Over the weekend, the United States paused its nearly two-week airstrike campaign against Iran, and Tehran said it would halt retaliatory strikes in return. Oil prices — which had spiked above $100 a barrel on Middle East fears — are tumbling, and stocks from Tokyo to Toronto to New York are rallying in relief. Here's what happened, and what it means for your money.

🇨🇦 Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX)

The S&P/TSX Composite closed Friday at 35,369.10, up 0.5% on the day, as gains in financials, mining, and technology offset a pullback in energy stocks after crude eased from its earlier highs. Big movers Friday: Constellation Software +4%, Shopify +1.6%, and Agnico Eagle +0.7% on higher gold, while Celestica tumbled 8.7% tracking a chip-stock selloff, and Cenovus dipped ahead of its July 29 earnings.

With oil sinking sharply again this morning, expect energy names (Suncor, Canadian Natural, Cenovus) to open under pressure, while banks, miners, and rate-sensitive stocks could benefit from falling bond yields.

IndexLevelChange
S&P/TSX Composite (Fri. close)35,369.10+0.50%

🇺🇸 U.S. Markets

Wall Street closed Friday mixed but is set to open sharply higher this morning. Friday's close: the Dow added 0.46% to 51,947.25, the S&P 500 edged up 0.05% to 7,411.98, and the Nasdaq slipped 0.64% to 24,975.82 as chip and AI-capex jitters lingered after Alphabet and Tesla's post-earnings selloffs earlier in the week.

This morning, futures are pointing to a strong "relief rally" open: Dow and S&P 500 futures are up roughly 0.8%, and Nasdaq-100 futures have jumped as much as 1.6% as the oil pullback eases inflation worries. It's shaping up to be the busiest week of the quarter — Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon report earnings Wednesday and Thursday, Apple and Qualcomm also report, and the Federal Reserve's two-day policy meeting wraps Wednesday.

IndexFri. CloseChange
Dow Jones Industrial Average51,947.25+0.46%
S&P 5007,411.98+0.05%
Nasdaq Composite24,975.82-0.64%

🌍 Europe & Asia

The relief rally is global. In early European trading, Germany's DAX jumped about 1.35% to 25,429, the Euro Stoxx 50 gained 1.04%, France's CAC 40 rose 0.69%, and the UK's FTSE 100 added 0.44%. Travel and airline stocks (Ryanair, IAG, Lufthansa) led on hopes of lower fuel costs, while energy majors like BP and Shell slipped alongside crude.

In Asia, Japan's Nikkei 225 rose 0.5% to 64,931, South Korea's Kospi climbed about 1% to 6,756, Hong Kong's Hang Seng gained roughly 1%, and China's Shanghai Composite added 1.2% — boosted by a blockbuster Shanghai IPO debut from memory-chip maker CXMT, Asia's largest listing of 2026. Australia's ASX 200 surged 1.4%.

🛢️ Oil, Gold & the Loonie

Oil is the story of the day. Brent crude fell as much as 7.4%, briefly dipping below $90 a barrel, before paring some of the losses, while WTI crude slid roughly 7-8% to around $83-85 a barrel. That's a sharp reversal from last week, when Brent briefly topped $100 for the first time in nearly two months on Middle East supply fears. Brent is still up more than 50% year-to-date given the disruption to Gulf and Red Sea shipping routes.

Gold is holding up near $4,090 an ounce, up about 1% today, as investors weigh easing geopolitical risk against a Federal Reserve decision this week.

The Canadian dollar was trading close to 71 cents US (USD/CAD around 1.409) heading into Monday, after a choppy week driven by oil swings and the looming August 19 U.S. tariff deadline on Canadian goods. A softer U.S. dollar and lower oil could offer the loonie some breathing room today, though trade-tariff uncertainty remains the bigger swing factor.

Commodity/CurrencyLevelChange
Brent Crude~$88-90/bbl-6% to -7%
WTI Crude~$83-85/bbl-7% to -8%
Gold~$4,090/oz+0.95%
USD/CAD~1.409little changed

💡 What It Means for You

  • If oil keeps falling, expect gas prices at the pump to ease over the coming days — good news for commuters and road-trippers this summer.
  • A calmer oil market takes some pressure off the Bank of Canada's inflation math ahead of its September 2 rate decision.
  • If you hold energy stocks or energy-heavy ETFs in your TFSA or RRSP, today's pullback in crude could show up as short-term red in your portfolio — a reminder of why diversification across sectors matters.
  • Cross-border shoppers and U.S. travellers: the loonie is little changed today, so the calculus on cross-border purchases hasn't shifted much — the bigger factor remains the August 19 U.S. tariff deadline.

👀 Looking Ahead

This is shaping up to be the busiest week of the summer for markets. Key things on the radar:

  • Wednesday-Thursday: Earnings from Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, Apple, and Qualcomm — a major test of AI-spending sentiment after Alphabet and Tesla rattled markets last week.
  • Wednesday: The U.S. Federal Reserve wraps its two-day policy meeting, with markets pricing in a roughly two-thirds chance rates stay unchanged.
  • Ongoing: Whether the U.S.-Iran pause holds. Houthi attacks on Saudi tankers in the Red Sea are still a wildcard for oil.
  • August 19: The new 50% U.S. tariff on select Canadian goods (wine, dairy, furniture, hockey gear) is set to take effect, with trade talks ongoing.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Market data reflects levels available at time of writing and may change quickly.

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