Wednesday, July 29, 2026
It's the biggest day of the week for your money. Oil is spiking again after a fresh round of fighting between the U.S. and Iran, Asian tech stocks are getting hammered for a second straight session, and the Bank of Canada's American counterpart hands down its interest rate decision this afternoon. The TSX, meanwhile, closed at a fresh record high yesterday — before any of this hit. Here's what's moving markets today, and what it means for your wallet.
🇨🇦 TSX: Fresh Record High, But Led By the Wrong Sectors For Today
Canada's benchmark index closed up 0.51% on Tuesday at 35,750, a new closing high, powered by big bank strength and a blowout earnings beat from Celestica. But look under the hood and yesterday's leadership was almost the mirror image of what's driving global markets this morning: gold miners and energy names were both in the red as investors de-risked ahead of the Fed.
| Stock / Sector | Move |
| Celestica | +9.5% |
| Constellation Software | +6.4% |
| Shopify | +2.7% |
| RBC | +1.1% |
| BMO | +1.1% |
| Wheaton Precious Metals | -2.3% |
| Barrick Mining | -1.7% |
| Agnico Eagle | -1.6% |
| Cenovus Energy | -1.4% |
| Canadian Natural Resources | -1.3% |
Gold miners fell Tuesday as gold prices slipped ahead of the Fed decision; energy names fell on lower oil prices — both moves that are being partially unwound this morning as oil jumps back up.
🛢️ Oil Jumps 4% as Iran Attacks U.S. Forces
The relative calm of the past few days just ended. U.S. Central Command says Iran's Revolutionary Guard fired multiple ballistic missiles at American forces in the Middle East on Tuesday evening; all were intercepted. Iran-backed militias also launched drone attacks on Saudi oil facilities for a second consecutive day, and Tehran rejected Oman's proposal for joint control of the Strait of Hormuz. The result: Brent crude jumped more than 4% to near $88 a barrel Wednesday, and WTI climbed to roughly $82.50, clawing back a chunk of the 16% plunge oil had posted over the prior three sessions.
🇺🇸 U.S. Markets: Steady Futures, But All Eyes on 2pm ET
Wall Street closed higher for a third straight session Tuesday: the Dow jumped 1.03% to 52,747.32, the S&P 500 added 0.21% to 7,428.78, while the Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.22% to 24,876.91 as chip stocks dragged on the tech-heavy index. This morning, futures are roughly flat to slightly higher as investors digest the overnight Iran news, brace for chip-sector fallout from Asia, and count down to the Federal Reserve's rate decision at 2:00pm ET.
Markets widely expect the Fed to hold its benchmark rate at 3.50%–3.75% for a fifth straight meeting, but traders are pricing in an unusually high roughly one-in-three chance of a surprise hike today, with an outright majority expecting a hike by September. It's also a monster week for earnings: Microsoft and Meta report after today's close, with Apple and Amazon following Thursday.
🌏 Asia: Kospi's Historic Meltdown Continues
This is where today's real carnage is. South Korea's Kospi plunged another roughly 6-8% Wednesday, extending Tuesday's brutal 10.84% crash, as a second wave of selling hit chipmakers on growing doubts about the sustainability of AI-related spending. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix — both of which had posted blockbuster earnings this week — are down double digits again as investors decide the results still weren't good enough. Japan's Nikkei 225 fell roughly 2-4%, Taiwan's Taiex dropped nearly 4-5%, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng and mainland China's indexes were comparatively steady to slightly higher.
🇪🇺 Europe: Holding Up Better Than Asia
European stocks are shrugging off the Asian rout so far this morning. The pan-European Stoxx 600 is up around 0.3%, with the U.K.'s FTSE 100 up roughly 0.6%, Germany's DAX up about 0.3%, and France's CAC 40 up around 0.4% — helped by Europe's lighter weighting in semiconductor and AI-related names compared to Wall Street and Asia.
💰 Gold, and the Canadian Dollar
| Asset | Level |
| Gold (USD/oz) | ~US$4,020 |
| Gold (CAD/oz) | ~C$5,678 |
| USD/CAD | 1.4106 |
| CAD/USD | ~US$0.7085 |
Gold slipped modestly Tuesday as a firmer U.S. dollar and Fed uncertainty weighed on the metal, though it's still holding comfortably above US$4,000/oz. The loonie is little changed heading into the Fed decision, holding near 1.41 to the U.S. dollar.
💡 What It Means for You
- Gas prices: the oil bounce could pause the recent relief at the pumps — if the Iran attacks escalate further, expect it to show up at the pump within days.
- RRSP/TFSA tech holdings: if you hold Canadian or global tech/semiconductor funds, today's Asian rout is worth watching — it could spill into North American trading depending on how Microsoft and Meta's earnings land tonight.
- Mortgage shoppers: today's Fed decision matters even though it's a U.S. announcement — bond yield moves after 2pm ET often ripple into Canadian fixed mortgage pricing ahead of the Bank of Canada's September 2 decision.
- Cross-border shoppers/travellers: the loonie is steady for now near 1.41, but a hawkish surprise from the Fed this afternoon could push it weaker fast.
👀 What's Next
The main event is this afternoon: the Fed's rate decision lands at 2:00pm ET, followed by a press conference from Chair Kevin Warsh at 2:30pm ET. After the close, Microsoft and Meta report earnings, giving the market its next read on AI capital spending — the same theme that's driving today's Asian selloff. Watch oil closely too: further escalation between the U.S. and Iran could push Brent back toward the $95-100 levels seen earlier this month.
Market data as of Wednesday morning, July 29, 2026, and subject to change throughout the trading day. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
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