August 12, 2026 — Here's what's moving markets and your wallet today.
1. Oil holds above $89 after the U.S. Navy disables a ship trying to run the Iran blockade
Brent crude is holding above $89 a barrel, extending a five-session climb, after U.S. Central Command said a Navy helicopter fired on and disabled the Panama-flagged cargo ship Vela Nova as it tried to slip into an Iranian port in violation of the American naval blockade. It's the third vessel CENTCOM has disabled since the blockade returned in mid-July. Iran's foreign ministry says the Strait of Hormuz won't reopen until the blockade is lifted, even as Oman-Iran talks over shipping routes are reportedly progressing.
What it means for you: Pump prices have been easing for weeks, but a sustained run above $89 Brent tends to show up at the pump within a week or two. If you're due for a fill-up and prices are still low in your area, it may be worth topping up before that catches up.
2. The TSX notches its third straight record close
Canada's benchmark index closed at 36,475.92 on Tuesday, a fresh all-time high, with utilities and industrials leading the way even as most big banks slipped. It's the third consecutive record for the TSX, building on last week's blowout jobs report and a string of strong earnings.
What it means for you: Good news if your RRSP or TFSA has Canadian equity exposure — but records like this often invite a pullback. It's not a signal to chase, just a reminder to check your asset mix if it's drifted more into equities than you planned.
3. Today's big number: U.S. inflation data lands at 8:30 a.m.
Economists expect the U.S. July CPI report to show inflation cooled slightly to around 3.4% annually, down from 3.5% in June. It's the last major U.S. inflation reading before the Fed's next meeting, and it lands with the Fed already unusually split — its last decision passed on a rare 9-3 vote, with three members wanting a hike.
What it means for you: A hotter-than-expected number could push bond yields — and Canadian fixed mortgage rates — higher, and could swing the loonie in either direction. Worth watching if you're locking in a mortgage rate or renewing soon, ahead of the Bank of Canada's own decision on September 2.
4. Tariff deadline: 7 days left, and a deal needs Trump's sign-off by Monday
Minister Dominic LeBlanc met U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer in Washington on Tuesday — his third meeting with U.S. officials in three weeks — as both sides race to head off the new 50% tariff set to hit roughly $20 billion of Canadian goods (dairy, alcohol, building materials, and more) on August 19. Reporting suggests negotiators are aiming to have a deal framework ready for Trump's sign-off by Monday, August 17, with concessions on the table including ending provincial bans on U.S. alcohol, dropping Canada's counter-tariffs on autos, and adjusting dairy quotas.
What it means for you: A deal could mean U.S. wine and spirits back on shelves and relief on steel and aluminum costs that feed into everything from appliances to construction. No deal means higher prices on the affected goods starting August 19 — worth factoring in if you're buying furniture, electronics, or renovation materials in the next couple of weeks.
5. The loonie is sitting near an 8-week high
The Canadian dollar is trading near 1.392 per U.S. dollar (about 71.8 U.S. cents), its strongest level in roughly two months, helped by last week's blowout July jobs report and a softer U.S. dollar.
What it means for you: Good timing for cross-border shopping, U.S. travel, or converting USD RRSP/TFSA holdings back to Canadian dollars. Just note it could move quickly depending on how today's U.S. inflation number lands — the loonie has swung on less.
This article is for general information and isn't personalized financial advice. Prices, rates, and figures are current as of publication and can change quickly.
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