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Premiers Split on Using Potash as a Trade Weapon — What It Means for Your Grocery Bill

  Published August 31, 2026 Canada's premiers can't agree on how far to take the trade war with the United States — and this week, the fight is over a grey mineral mined almost 2,000 kilometres from Ottawa: potash. The disagreement matters well beyond provincial politics. Potash is the "P" and "K" of fertilizer economics — a key ingredient in the blends that grow the wheat, canola, and corn that eventually show up as bread, canola oil, and everything fed to livestock. Canada supplies about 85% of the potash the U.S. uses, which is exactly why some premiers see it as leverage — and why others are warning that pulling that lever could backfire on the very provinces pushing for it. Ford wants to pull the lever. Moe and Smith are warning not to. Ontario Premier Doug Ford is pushing for the toughest response available, including resource-based leverage. Saskatchewan's Scott Moe and Alberta's Danielle Smith are pumping the brakes, warning that squeezing po...
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5 Things to Know Today: Oil Surges as Iran Tensions Flare Again

 

Monday, August 31, 2026

The week opens with oil jumping on fresh Middle East tension, the TSX still nursing last week's Warsh-driven pullback, and three big deadlines — the Bank of Canada, the gas tax holiday, and Canada's retaliation tariffs — all landing within the next eight days. Here's what to know.

1. Oil Jumps Past $90 After a Fresh US Strike on Iran

A US strike on Iranian rocket launchers near the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday — the first since late July — sent Brent crude to $90.69 (+2.93%), with WTI near $86. It ends weeks of relative calm on the oil front and comes right as Canadian drivers are about to lose a price cushion of their own (see #4).

What it means for you: Expect pump prices to firm up over the next week or two as the crude increase filters through — bad timing with the gas tax holiday set to expire.

2. TSX Sits at a Two-Week Low, Gold Still Shaky

The TSX closed out last week at 36,553.92 (-0.80% Friday), its second straight weekly decline, after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish Jackson Hole debut pushed September rate-hike odds higher. Gold took the bigger hit, sliding roughly 3% (from about C$6,379 to C$6,198) and it's still soft to start the week.

What it means for you: If gold's been a big TFSA or RRSP winner for you this year, a pullback after a multi-month run isn't unusual — this isn't a signal to sell in a panic.

3. The Bank of Canada Decision Is Two Days Away

The BoC announces its rate decision Wednesday, September 2. An eighth straight hold at 2.25% is still the base case — Q2 GDP came in at a surprisingly strong 3.3% annualized — even with July's hotter-than-expected 3.0% CPI print and the tariff shock working through the economy.

What it means for you: Don't wait on this one for mortgage relief — variable-rate holders should plan around rates staying put through the fall.

4. Retaliation Tariffs Land in 8 Days — and Premiers Are Split on Using Resources as Leverage

Canada's own tariffs on over 700 US goods take effect September 8. Ahead of that, premiers are divided over whether to use natural resources like potash as additional leverage in the trade fight, and Ontario's Doug Ford has floated the idea of cutting off US-bound electricity exports if things escalate further.

What it means for you: If a resource fight adds to the retaliation list, watch for it to show up in energy and input costs down the line, not just at the border.

5. Gas Tax Holiday Ends in 7 Days

The federal excise tax suspension (10¢/L on gas) expires September 7, right as oil prices are climbing again on the Iran news. Once it ends, expect roughly 10.5 to 11.5 cents a litre to come back onto the pump price, depending on your province.

What it means for you: If you're due for a fill-up, doing it before September 7 is worth a few extra dollars in your pocket.

This post is part of the Canadian Money Brief series on MoneySavings.ca, tracking the Canadian financial news that actually affects your wallet. Not financial advice — always check current rates and terms before making decisions.

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