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The 4% Rule Just Dropped to 3.9% — But Your RRIF Doesn't Care

  Published August 5, 2026 Morningstar's newest research says retirees can safely start withdrawing 3.9% a year. Ottawa's RRIF rules don't ask what's "safe" — they just tell you how much to take out, whether the math agrees or not. For years, the shortcut retirees leaned on was simple: take out 4% of your portfolio in your first year of retirement, bump it up with inflation every year after, and your savings should last three decades. Morningstar's 2026 State of Retirement Income report just trimmed that number to 3.9%. On its own, that's a small adjustment. On a $500,000 portfolio, it's the difference between withdrawing $19,500 or $20,000 in year one. But for Canadians, the number that actually controls the withdrawal isn't Morningstar's — it's the Canada Revenue Agency's. And once your RRSP becomes a Registered Retirement Income Fund, the CRA's required minimum can blow right past whatever a "safe" withdrawal rate i...
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5 Things to Know Today: TSX Hits Record High as Oil Crashes Below $80



 August 5, 2026

1. Gas prices are set to drop again

Oil cratered to around $80 a barrel (Brent) today after President Trump called off a planned strike on Iran, easing fears of a Strait of Hormuz disruption. That's a sharp drop from levels above $95-100 just two weeks ago.

What it means for you: Expect pump prices to keep sliding over the next few days as the drop works its way through supply chains. Worth holding off on a fill-up if you can.

2. The TSX just hit an all-time high

Toronto's benchmark index jumped 1.63% to close at 35,801.59, a fresh record, riding the same wave of Middle East de-escalation and strong US earnings from companies like Palantir and Caterpillar.

What it means for you: If you hold Canadian equity funds in your RRSP or TFSA, today's close is good news — but records like this are also a natural point to check you haven't drifted too heavily into any one sector.

3. The loonie is holding steady near 1.41

USD/CAD sat around 1.4072 today, little changed even as oil — usually a big driver of the loonie — swung sharply lower.

What it means for you: Cross-border shoppers and US travellers are still paying roughly the same premium they have for weeks. No relief yet, but no further slide either.

4. The clock is ticking on the US tariff deadline

We're now 14 days out from the August 19 deadline, when a 50% US tariff on Canadian wine, dairy, furniture, and hockey gear is set to take effect if no deal is reached.

What it means for you: If you're planning any cross-border purchases in these categories, or run a business that imports or exports them, this is the week to start planning around either outcome.

5. Gold is holding near record territory

Gold sat near $4,075-4,130 today, staying close to record highs even as riskier assets rallied — a sign investors haven't fully let go of their hedges despite the calmer mood.

What it means for you: If you hold gold ETFs or bullion in a TFSA, this has been a strong stretch. Just don't mistake a hedge for a growth position when rebalancing.

This post is for general information only and isn't financial advice. Talk to a licensed advisor about your own situation.

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