Ten days to the tariff deadline, gold at a record high, and the TSX just wrapped its best week since April. Here's what actually affects your wallet today.
1. Canada's negotiators are camped out in Washington as the tariff deadline hits 10 days
With Donald Trump's threatened 50% tariff on a wide range of Canadian goods set to hit August 19, Canadian officials are reportedly setting up shop at the embassy on Pennsylvania Avenue for a full-court press. Multiple sources say both sides are "cautiously optimistic" about an interim deal — one that would leave some tariffs on steel and aluminum in place (reportedly 10-15% on steel inside a negotiated quota, lower single digits on aluminum) in exchange for relief on the broader 50% list covering everything from dairy and alcohol to furniture and building materials. Nothing is signed yet, and Ottawa has said it isn't pushing for an extension past the 19th.
What it means for you: If you buy imported wine, cheese, furniture, or building materials, prices could jump within days if there's no deal — this is a bad week to delay a big-ticket purchase in those categories. If you hold Canadian steel, aluminum, or industrial stocks in an RRSP or TFSA, expect continued volatility until there's an actual announcement.
2. Gold just hit a fresh record — around $6,050 CAD an ounce
Gold closed out last week near an all-time high, pushed up by Friday's shockingly weak U.S. jobs report (a loss of 23,000 jobs versus an expected gain of roughly 80,000), which raised bets on faster U.S. rate cuts. Lower rates make non-yielding assets like gold more attractive, and combined with ongoing Middle East tension, that's been enough to send the metal up more than 27% over the past year.
What it means for you: If you already hold gold or gold-miner stocks in an RRSP or TFSA, this has been a very good year. If you're thinking about buying in now, remember that "record high" is exactly the kind of headline that tempts people to chase a rally — a small, planned allocation beats trying to time the top.
3. The TSX just had its best week since April
The Toronto Stock Exchange closed Friday up 0.7% (+244.92 points) at a record 36,381.23, capping a 3.3% weekly gain — its biggest weekly advance in about four months. Gold and mining stocks did a lot of the heavy lifting (Agnico Eagle +5.9%, Barrick +5%), and the rally got extra fuel from a blowout Canadian jobs report: the economy added 75,100 jobs in July versus the 17,800 economists expected, with the unemployment rate falling to 6.4%, its lowest since July 2024.
What it means for you: If your RRSP or TFSA leans Canadian equities, you're likely sitting on solid year-to-date gains — a good moment to check your portfolio isn't now overweight in gold and resource stocks relative to your target mix, rather than a reason to change your contribution plan.
4. Oil — and gas prices — are easing off their highs
Brent crude has pulled back to the low $80s, down more than 7% over the past week, as talks over an Iran-Oman agreement to reopen shipping through the Strait of Hormuz raised hopes that more Middle Eastern oil supply could return to the market. It's still a fragile truce — there have been reports of vessel attacks even as the talks continue — but for now, the retreat from last month's highs has been giving some relief at the pump.
What it means for you: If you've been putting off a road trip or a fill-up, this is a reasonable window. Just don't bank on it lasting — Hormuz-linked oil moves have reversed fast all summer, and a fresh incident could send gas prices right back up within days.
5. Mark your calendar: July's inflation report lands August 17
Statistics Canada will release the July Consumer Price Index on Monday, August 17 — two days before the tariff deadline and about two weeks before the Bank of Canada's September 2 rate decision. June's headline number came in at 2.8%, down from May's 3.2%, with gasoline swings doing most of the work. This report will be one of the last major data points the Bank sees before that decision.
What it means for you: If you're weighing a fixed-vs-variable mortgage decision or have a renewal coming up around September, this CPI print — combined with the tariff outcome the same week — is worth watching closely. A hot number could push bond yields (and fixed rates) higher just as you're deciding.
This article is for general information purposes and isn't personalized financial advice. Talk to a licensed advisor before making investment or mortgage decisions.
Comments
Post a Comment