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5 Things to Know Today: Inflation Data, a Tariff Countdown, and a Big Energy Deal

  August 17, 2026 Inflation data lands this morning, the clock on the U.S. tariff deadline is down to two days, and a long-running provincial energy dispute is about to be settled. Here's what's moving your money today. 1. Today's Inflation Report Could Set the Tone for September Statistics Canada releases July's Consumer Price Index this morning. Economists are expecting the annual rate to tick up to roughly 2.9%, from 2.8% in June, mainly because gasoline prices swung higher again in July after the Middle East conflict pushed oil prices back up. Core inflation measures, which the Bank of Canada watches most closely, aren't expected to move much. What it means for you: A hotter-than-expected print would make it less likely the Bank of Canada cuts rates at its September 2 meeting, which matters if you're renewing a variable-rate mortgage or carrying a line of credit. A softer number keeps a cut on the table. 2. The Tariff Deadline Is Two Days Away, and Talks Are...
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5 Things to Know Today: The Gas Tax Break Ends in 3 Weeks

 

August 13, 2026

Good morning. The TSX just notched another record close, Ottawa's gas tax break has a firm expiry date, and Air Canada is telling us what fall travel is going to cost. Here's what's moving your wallet today.

1. The federal gas tax holiday ends September 7

The national average gas price hit 175.6¢/L today, its highest level in weeks, even as crude oil eased back after a five-session climb. That's partly a lag effect — but the bigger number to watch is the calendar. Ottawa's temporary suspension of the 10¢/L federal fuel excise tax (4¢/L on diesel), in place since April 20, expires after Labour Day on September 7. On September 8, the tax snaps back to its full rate, and because GST/HST is charged on top of it, pump prices could jump by slightly more than 10¢/L overnight.

What it means for you: On a 60-litre fill-up, that's roughly $6–7 extra per tank starting September 8. If you're planning a fall road trip or just do a lot of driving, topping up before Labour Day is worth the few minutes it takes.

2. The TSX just notched its third straight record close

Canada's main index closed Wednesday at 36,662.14, up 0.51%, powered by financials and gold miners plus a 12%+ single-day surge in Air Canada shares after the airline reinstated its 2026 guidance. The TSX's total return over the past year is running around 32%, well ahead of the S&P 500, helped by Canada's light tech weighting and heavy commodity exposure.

What it means for you: If you hold Canadian equity funds in your RRSP or TFSA, that record run is likely showing up in your balance. Just don't chase it blindly — valuations are getting stretched in some pockets, especially financials, so this is a good moment to check your account still matches your actual risk tolerance rather than just riding the momentum.

3. Six days to the tariff deadline, still no deal

Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc met U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer in Washington again this week — the third meeting in three weeks — ahead of the August 19 deadline for a new 50% U.S. tariff on a broad list of Canadian goods, including alcohol, dairy, furniture, building materials, and more. Reportedly on the table: dropping Canada's retaliatory auto tariffs, easing provincial bans on U.S. alcohol, and reworking dairy quotas, possibly through side agreements rather than a full renegotiated deal.

What it means for you: With six days left and no confirmed deal, prices on a wide range of goods remain genuinely uncertain heading into late August. If you've got a big purchase planned in an affected category — furniture, imported alcohol, electronics — there's a real argument for buying before the 19th rather than waiting.

4. Building permits just posted a massive surge

Statistics Canada's June building permits data blew past expectations this week — up 18.5% to $14.9 billion nationally, more than triple the forecast. Ontario led the way at $6.2 billion (+28.5% from May), and Toronto alone accounted for $4.01 billion, up 73.3% from May and 84.3% year over year. Both residential and non-residential permits contributed to the jump.

What it means for you: More permits today points to more housing supply hitting the market over the next one to three years, one of the levers that eventually eases price growth. If you're a landlord in the GTA, it's worth factoring rising future supply into your longer-term rent and vacancy assumptions rather than just looking at today's tight market.

5. Air Canada expects a strong fall — but fares won't get cheaper

Air Canada reinstated its full-year 2026 guidance this week after posting record Q2 revenue of $6.3 billion, though the new outlook ($2.9–3.2 billion in adjusted core profit) is below what it projected before pulling guidance in the spring. The culprit is jet fuel: the airline now assumes $1.38/litre for Q3, up sharply from its original full-year assumption of $0.90/litre. At the same time, Air Canada says it's expecting one of its strongest fall seasons on record, with corporate and premium travel picking back up from September through December.

What it means for you: Higher fuel costs plus strong demand is not a recipe for cheaper fares. If you're booking fall or holiday travel, booking earlier is likely to beat waiting for a fare that probably isn't coming.

That's your 5 Things to Know Today. Check back tomorrow for the next Canadian Money Brief.

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