Markets are starting the final trading session of August the way they've started so many this summer — with the Strait of Hormuz back in the headlines. U.S. forces struck Iranian rocket launchers on Sunday, ending weeks of relative calm, and oil, bond yields and equity futures are all reacting this morning. Meanwhile, Friday's close showed the TSX slipping to a two-week low as Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish Jackson Hole remarks rattled gold and rate-cut hopes alike.
What It Means for You: Higher oil prices flow straight to the pump — watch this week's gas price moves as a preview of what happens when the federal gas tax holiday ends Sept. 7. A softer loonie also means costlier U.S. travel and cross-border shopping just as back-to-school and Labour Day trips wrap up.
Canada: TSX Closes Out the Week at a Two-Week Low
The S&P/TSX Composite fell 280.33 points, or 0.80%, to close Friday at 36,553.92 — its lowest closing level since Aug. 20. The index finished the week down about 0.2%, its second straight weekly decline, as a sharp pullback in gold miners and a hawkish tone from the U.S. Federal Reserve outweighed a clean finish to bank earnings season. Canadian markets are open today; no economic releases of note are scheduled before Thursday's Bank of Canada decision.
| Index | Close (Fri.) | Change |
|---|
| S&P/TSX Composite | 36,553.92 | −280.33 (−0.80%) |
| USD/CAD | 1.3901 | Loonie ~71.9¢ US |
United States: A Quiet Friday, a Tense Monday
Wall Street closed Friday mixed but essentially flat: the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped just 9.45 points (−0.02%) to 53,559.99, the S&P 500 fell 0.25% to 7,711.76, and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.52% to 26,402.42, weighed down by chip stocks. On the week, though, all three notched gains — the S&P 500 and Dow both up 0.5%, the Nasdaq up 0.9% — and August itself is shaping up as a strong month: the Dow is up roughly 2.1% for the month, on pace for a fifth straight monthly advance, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are both tracking their first monthly gains since May, up about 3% and 4% respectively.
That backdrop shifted overnight. U.S. Central Command confirmed American forces struck two Iranian rocket launchers on Larak Island in the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday — Washington's first acknowledged strike on Iran since late July — after intelligence suggested the launchers were being readied to lay mines in the waterway. Iranian state media reported retaliatory strikes on U.S. bases in Jordan. The news has pushed index futures modestly lower ahead of the open: Dow futures were down about 64 points (−0.12%), with S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures both slightly negative.
| Index | Close (Fri.) | Change |
|---|
| Dow Jones | 53,559.99 | −9.45 (−0.02%) |
| S&P 500 | 7,711.76 | −0.25% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 26,402.42 | −0.52% |
Europe & Asia: A Cautious Open
European shares edged lower Monday morning as the fresh Iran strikes pushed oil prices and bond yields higher, even with the pan-European STOXX 600 still on track for a fifth straight monthly gain (it was down about 0.1% to 655.54 points, with London closed for a bank holiday). Germany's DAX led losers, down 0.7% ahead of key eurozone inflation data due later this week. In Asia, trading was mixed overnight: mainland China's CSI 300 added 0.35% to 4,625.09, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng was roughly flat at 25,566.99, as investors weighed the same Middle East headlines against a steady stream of corporate earnings.
Commodities & Currency: Oil Jumps, Gold Stays Soft
Brent crude jumped 2.93% to $90.69 a barrel, its highest level in more than a week, after the U.S. military action in the Strait of Hormuz ended what had been a relatively quiet stretch for the waterway; West Texas Intermediate traded near $86. Gold, by contrast, is still nursing Friday's beating — spot prices in Canadian dollars slid from an open near C$6,379 to close at C$6,198.08 (−3.12%) after Warsh's hawkish Jackson Hole remarks pushed up bets on a September Fed rate hike, and CAD gold prices were trading in the C$6,155–6,215 range early Monday. The loonie, meanwhile, has softened to roughly 71.9 U.S. cents (USD/CAD 1.3901), a step back from last week's multi-week highs near 72.5 cents.
| Commodity / Currency | Level | Change |
|---|
| Brent Crude | $90.69 | +2.93% |
| WTI Crude | ~$86 | Higher |
| Gold (CAD/oz) | ~C$6,157–6,213 | Off recent highs |
| Loonie (USD/CAD) | 1.3901 | ~71.9¢ US |
What to Watch This Week
- Wednesday: Canadian and U.S. manufacturing PMIs, plus U.S. ISM Manufacturing data, will offer the first read on how tariffs and trade tensions are hitting factory activity.
- Thursday, Sept. 2: The Bank of Canada's rate decision — markets widely expect an eighth straight hold at 2.25%, though this week's oil spike adds a fresh inflation wrinkle.
- Friday: U.S. jobs data will be watched closely for confirmation (or contradiction) of Warsh's hawkish tone.
- Sept. 7: The federal gas tax holiday expires — expect pump prices to rise regardless of what oil does this week.
- Sept. 8: Canada's retaliatory tariffs on six U.S. sectors are set to take effect.
Market data current as of Monday morning, Aug. 31, 2026 (premarket/early European and Asian trading), and Friday, Aug. 28's confirmed closing figures for Canadian and U.S. markets. This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.
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