Markets Today: Oil Jumps as U.S. Threatens "Indefinite" Iran Blockade, TSX Holds Near Record With 5 Days to the Tariff Deadline

 

August 14, 2026

Oil prices are climbing again this morning after Washington signalled its naval blockade of Iranian ports could stay in place "indefinitely," reviving fears about the Strait of Hormuz just as the TSX rides a fresh string of record closes and Canada's tariff clock ticks down to five days remaining before the Wednesday, August 19 deadline.

Index / Asset	Level	Change
S&P/TSX Composite (Thu. close)	36,759.29	+0.30%
S&P 500 (Thu. close, record)	7,798.99	+0.65%
Dow Jones (Thu. close)	53,839.99	+0.13%
Nasdaq Composite (Thu. close)	26,803.03	+0.81%
Brent Crude (Fri. morning)	~US$88.64	+1.8%
WTI Crude (Fri. morning)	~US$82.89	+2.0%
Gold (Thu. close)	US$4,354.22/oz	-1.23%
USD/CAD	~1.394 (71.7¢ US)	holding near 8-wk high

Oil: Back Above $88 as the U.S. Talks "Economic Isolation" of Iran

After a two-day pullback that took Brent below $88 and WTI below $81 on softer demand signals, both benchmarks are climbing again this morning. U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said the American naval blockade of Iranian ports could continue "indefinitely," while Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Newsmax the U.S. is preparing measures aimed at the "economic isolation" of Iran unlike anything seen before. Iran and Oman still haven't finalized a deal to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and the IEA cut its global demand outlook this week while flagging a supply shortfall more than twice the size of its earlier estimate. Even with today's bounce, both benchmarks remain on pace for a roughly 4% weekly gain.

TSX: Fourth Straight Record Close

Canada's benchmark index closed 0.3% higher Thursday at 36,759.29, a fresh 52-week high and its fourth consecutive record close, as an in-line U.S. inflation reading eased worries about a September Fed rate hike and boosted risk appetite. Mining and technology names led, while Air Canada surged more than 12% after the airline restored its annual profit outlook (albeit at a lower level than before). RBC gained 0.6% and CIBC rose 1.1%, while Statistics Canada reported building permits jumped 18.5% to $14.9 billion. The index has since eased slightly through Thursday's session on falling commodity prices and softer U.S. producer inflation data, trading in the 36,590–36,660 range.

U.S. Markets: S&P 500 Tops 7,800 for the First Time

Wall Street closed at fresh records Thursday, with the S&P 500 crossing 7,800 intraday before settling at 7,798.99 (+0.65%). The Nasdaq gained 0.81% to 26,803.03 on strength in Meta, Micron and Netflix, and the Dow edged up 69.72 points (+0.13%) to 53,839.99. The rally came as oil prices fell more than 2% and traders digested cooler producer price data on top of Wednesday's in-line consumer inflation report — a combination that pulled the odds of a September Fed hike down to around 40%, from roughly 50% a day earlier.

Europe: Near Records, But Thursday Was a Pause

European shares closed mixed Thursday, taking a breather after a month of record-setting runs. The Stoxx 600 slipped 0.1%, Germany's DAX eased 0.1%, France's CAC 40 fell 0.3%, and London's FTSE 100 underperformed with a 0.8% drop as UK Q2 GDP growth came in slower than expected and mining shares weakened. The broader picture hasn't changed, though: the Stoxx 600, DAX and Euro Stoxx 50 have all set records this month, an unusual feat given August is historically one of Europe's weakest months for equities.

Asia: Japan Leads a Broad Rally

Asian markets pushed higher Friday, led by Japan. The Nikkei 225 jumped roughly 1.7% to above 69,400 and the Topix added 0.5% to a fresh record near 4,196, with tech and AI-linked names — Kioxia, Advantest and SoftBank Group — leading gains. Both indexes are on track for their strongest weekly performance in months (Nikkei +6%, Topix +3.5%), as the same cooling U.S. inflation data that lifted Wall Street pulled September Fed rate-hike odds down to around 35%, from 55% a week earlier. Chinese and Hong Kong markets were more mixed as investors weighed earnings from Alibaba and other regional heavyweights.

Gold and the Loonie

Gold slipped 1.23% Thursday to US$4,354.22/oz (roughly C$6,060–6,100 in Canadian-dollar terms), pulling back from a brief ten-week high earlier in the session as easing U.S. inflation reduced some of the urgency around safe-haven buying — though bullion remains up more than 30% year-over-year. The loonie is holding near its recent eight-week high, trading around 71.7¢ US (1.394 USD/CAD), supported by last week's blowout Canadian jobs report and this week's narrowing rate-differential expectations.

Five Days to the Tariff Deadline

With Wednesday, August 19's 50% U.S. tariff on Canadian dairy, alcohol and a broad list of other goods now five days away, Reuters reported Thursday that a Canadian government source says talks are "progressing well" and that Washington, too, wants a deal before the deadline. Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc met U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer for the fourth time in three weeks. But Canada's chief trade negotiator has also warned counterparts that letting the tariffs actually take effect would represent a "cliff" risking a halt to negotiations altogether. The sticking points remain steel, aluminum and auto tariffs (Section 232) versus the provincial bans on U.S. alcohol sales — each side wants the other to move first.

💰 What It Means for You

• At the pump: oil's rebound this morning means the gas-price relief from earlier in the week could stall out again — worth filling up before the weekend rather than waiting.
• RRSP/TFSA holders: Canadian and U.S. indexes are both sitting near record territory, but with oil swinging on Middle East headlines and a hard tariff deadline five days out, this isn't the week to assume the calm continues — a diversified position matters more than chasing the rally.
• If you're a landlord or planning renovations: the broader U.S. tariff list set to take effect August 19 covers lumber, plywood, cement and other building materials — if you have a renovation or repair on the calendar, ordering supplies before Wednesday could avoid a price jump.
• Cross-border shoppers and snowbirds: the loonie's near an eight-week high, so U.S. purchases and travel are relatively cheaper right now than they've been most of the summer — but that can reverse quickly if the tariff talks break down.

What to Watch

• This weekend: any further developments on the Strait of Hormuz naval blockade, which could move oil sharply in either direction before Monday's open.
• Monday, Aug. 17: Statistics Canada's July CPI release, the last major inflation read ahead of the Bank of Canada's September 2 rate decision.
• Wednesday, Aug. 19: the U.S. tariff deadline — 50% duties on Canadian dairy, alcohol and a broad list of other goods take effect unless a deal is reached.
• September 2: the Bank of Canada's next interest rate decision.

Market data reflects Thursday, August 13 closing prices and Friday morning, August 14 pre-market levels as of publication and may have moved since. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.