August 18, 2026
Wall Street and European markets are opening lower Tuesday as the U.S.-Iran ceasefire lapsed and oil pushed above $91 a barrel, while the TSX is nursing a mild pullback after a hotter-than-expected July inflation report. But the number every Canadian household should have circled: tomorrow, August 19, is the deadline for Washington's threatened 50% tariffs on a wide swath of Canadian goods — and as of this morning, there's still no deal. Here's your full markets wrap.
🇨🇦 TSX: A Small Step Back From the Streak
The S&P/TSX Composite closed Monday at 36,668.34, down 0.17%, as losses in tech, consumer staples and healthcare outweighed gains in energy and mining. It's a second straight modest pullback after Friday's dip from last Thursday's record close of 36,759.29 — but the index is still up nearly 5% over the past month.
The catalyst was Statistics Canada's July inflation report: headline CPI came in at 3.0% year-over-year, hotter than the 2.9% economists expected, with core measures also ticking higher and fuel prices rising at a faster clip. That's not enough to derail the Bank of Canada's expected hold at its September 2 decision, but it trims the case for any near-term rate relief — and it weighed on rate-sensitive financials Monday even as Canadian Natural Resources and other energy names gained on the oil price spike.
| Index | Close | Change |
|---|
| S&P/TSX Composite | 36,668.34 | -0.17% |
Movers: Spartan Delta jumped over 5% on energy strength. OceanaGold agreed to acquire Australia's Ausgold in a roughly A$776 million deal. Abaxx Technologies fell sharply after its Q2 net loss widened.
🇺🇸 US Markets: Yields and Oil Snuff Out the Rally
Wall Street fell Monday as rising Treasury yields and a jump in oil prices — on fears the U.S.-Iran conflict could reignite now that their 60-day truce has formally expired — pushed investors to trim risk ahead of a heavy week of retail earnings. The 30-year Treasury yield touched its highest level in decades.
| Index | Monday Close | Change |
|---|
| Dow Jones | 53,459.78 | -0.51% |
| S&P 500 | 7,745.06 | -0.52% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 26,644.91 | -0.32% |
Futures are pointing to more of the same this morning: Dow futures are roughly flat, S&P 500 futures are down about 0.5%, and Nasdaq-100 futures have shed around 1.1% in premarket trade as tech and AI-adjacent names lead the retreat. The VIX "fear gauge" has climbed back above 15.
The week's real test starts Tuesday and Wednesday, with Walmart, Home Depot, Target and Lowe's all reporting earnings — closely watched after Friday's weaker-than-expected U.S. retail sales report and a sharp drop in consumer sentiment. Wednesday also brings the minutes from the Fed's contentious July meeting, where three officials dissented in favour of a hike.
🇪🇺 Europe: Record Run Cools as Bond Yields Jump
European markets are set to open lower Tuesday, pulling back further from recent record highs. The eurozone's 10-year bond yield climbed above 3.2% — its highest in roughly 15 years — as fiscal and inflation worries mount alongside the fresh oil price spike. Euro Stoxx 50 futures are down about 0.6% and Stoxx 600 futures around 0.4%, with basic resources stocks under particular pressure as gold slips and energy shares gain on crude's rise. Investors are also watching UK jobs data and eurozone/German ZEW sentiment surveys due today.
🌏 Asia-Pacific: Broad Retreat, Australia the Exception
Asian markets fell across the board Tuesday as the same rising-oil, rising-yields combination weighed on sentiment. Japan's Nikkei 225 gave back a chunk of Monday's 0.6% gain, sliding as much as 1.7% intraday as Japan's 10-year government bond yield hit a fresh 30-year high near 2.95% on growing Bank of Japan rate-hike bets. Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell about 0.7%, South Korea's Kospi slipped 0.6%, and China's Shanghai Composite eased 0.4%. Australia's ASX 200 was the lone bright spot, edging up about 0.2% on strength in healthcare names Cochlear and CSL.
🛢️ Oil, Gold & the Loonie
| Commodity / Currency | Level | Trend |
|---|
| Brent Crude | ~$90.97 US/bbl | ▲ 3rd straight session |
| WTI Crude | ~$84 US/bbl | ▲ Up on Hormuz risk |
| Gold | ~US$4,410-4,415/oz (~C$6,076/oz) | ◆ Near record, roughly flat |
| Canadian Dollar | ~72.1¢ US (1.387 USD/CAD) | ▲ Near multi-week high |
Oil is the story: the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding that had been holding since June formally expired Monday, and President Trump said he doesn't see the conflict ending soon, telling Americans to "accept somewhat higher gasoline prices." Iran and Oman continue separate talks over safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz, but shipping through the strait has slowed sharply — just five vessels transited on Saturday and none on Sunday, versus 31 the previous weekend. Gold is holding just off its recent record highs, while the loonie continues to benefit from narrowing rate-differential expectations, trading near its best level in roughly two months even amid the broader risk-off mood.
⏰ One Day Out: Where the Tariff Talks Stand
Sunday's meeting between Canada's negotiating team — Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc and chief negotiator Janice Charette — and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer wrapped in Washington without an announced deal. Greer offered only a "no comment" to reporters on his way out. LeBlanc told media afterward: "We're going to continue working. Our job is not yet done."
Absent an agreement, Washington's threatened 50% tariffs on roughly $20 billion of Canadian goods — including alcohol, dairy, furniture, cement and hockey sticks, some of which would otherwise qualify for USMCA exemptions — take effect tomorrow, August 19. A Canadian government source told Reuters last week that talks were "progressing well" and that the U.S. also wants a deal before the deadline. Reported items on the table include Canada dropping its retaliatory auto tariffs, provinces lifting bans on U.S. alcohol, and a reworked dairy quota structure, in exchange for the U.S. dropping the 50% threat and easing steel and aluminum duties. Prime Minister Mark Carney has repeated that "Canada will not accept a bad deal."
💰 What It Means for You
- At the pump: Oil's climb toward $91 Brent, with no sign the U.S.-Iran standoff is cooling, points to renewed pressure on gas prices after several weeks of relief — worth filling up sooner rather than later if you're due.
- RRSP/TFSA: If you hold broad equity funds or US tech exposure, expect a choppier session today; the pullback is driven by yields and geopolitics rather than any change in corporate fundamentals, and volatility like this is a poor reason to make portfolio changes on its own.
- If you run a business that imports or exports: Tomorrow's deadline is the one to watch. If you deal in goods on the affected list — alcohol, dairy, furniture, building materials — a deal (or the lack of one) could change your costs or your customers' costs within days.
- Cross-border shoppers and travellers: The loonie's strength near a two-month high is a modest tailwind for US shopping or travel plans, even as everything else looks shaky.
- Mortgage watchers: July's hotter CPI print doesn't change the expected BoC hold on September 2, but it does reduce the odds of any rate relief later this year — a reason fixed-rate holders renewing soon may want to start shopping now rather than waiting.
📅 What to Watch
- Wednesday, Aug 19 — two things at once: the deadline for the threatened 50% US tariffs on Canadian goods, and the release of minutes from the Fed's unusually divided 9-3 July hold.
- This week: Walmart, Home Depot, Target and Lowe's earnings — a read on the health of the US consumer after Friday's weak retail sales.
- Ongoing: Strait of Hormuz shipping talks between Iran and Oman, and any sign of a broader US-Iran de-escalation.
- Sept 2: Bank of Canada's next rate decision.
Market data as of Tuesday, August 18, 2026 morning. Figures are sourced from TMX/S&P Dow Jones Indices, Investing.com, Trading Economics, Kitco and Reuters, and are subject to change throughout the trading day. This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.
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