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Markets Today: TSX Notches a Fourth Straight Record as Cooling Inflation Lifts Wall Street
August 13, 2026
The TSX closed at a record high for the fourth straight session on Wednesday as an in-line U.S. inflation reading calmed fears of a Federal Reserve rate hike next month, and futures point to more gains today. Oil is pulling back after a five-session climb, gold is sitting near two-month highs, and the loonie is holding close to an eight-week high — all while the clock ticks down on Ottawa's Aug. 19 tariff deadline.
TSX: Fourth Straight Record Close
Canada's benchmark index rose 186.22 points, or 0.5%, to close at 36,662.14 on Wednesday — its fourth consecutive record and best close on record. Financials and gold miners led the advance, and Air Canada was the session's standout, surging 12.2% after the airline said it expects one of its strongest fall travel seasons on record, helped by rebounding corporate travel. Only two of the TSX's 10 major sectors finished lower, with consumer staples the weakest.
| Index | Close | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P/TSX Composite | 36,662.14 | +186.22 (+0.51%) |
Wall Street: CPI Comes In Right on Target
July's Consumer Price Index rose 0.1% on the month, holding the annual rate at 3.4%, down a tick from June's 3.5% and exactly matching what economists expected — a rare clean reading after a volatile spring driven by energy costs tied to the Iran conflict. Core CPI (excluding food and energy) rose 0.2% and eased to 2.5% annually. Shelter costs, up 0.1%, accounted for roughly two-thirds of the headline increase, while gasoline prices fell. The tame numbers pulled the market-implied odds of a September Fed rate hike down to around 36%, from about 48% the prior session.
Stocks pushed toward fresh records on the news, though gains were modest as the S&P 500 gave back most of an initial post-CPI spike:
| Index | Close | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 53,770.27 | −21.58 (−0.04%) |
| S&P 500 | 7,748.50 | +0.26% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 26,588.49 | +0.54% |
Futures are pointing higher again this morning — Dow futures near 53,910, S&P 500 futures near 7,780, and Nasdaq 100 futures near 29,870 — as traders look ahead to today's Producer Price Index report and a fresh round of weekly jobless claims.
Europe and Asia
Europe: The pan-European Stoxx 600 is up about 0.2% this morning, resuming its push toward record highs on relief from the U.S. inflation print. Germany's DAX and France's CAC 40 are each up around 0.3%, while London's FTSE 100 is leading with a 0.6% gain after stronger-than-expected UK GDP data.
Asia: Markets were mostly higher overnight on the back of Wall Street's CPI-driven relief. Japan's Nikkei 225 jumped roughly 1.6–1.75% to trade above 68,600, and South Korea's Kospi extended its strong run for the year. Hong Kong's Hang Seng was little changed, while mainland China's Shanghai Composite added around 0.4%.
Commodities: Oil Eases, Gold Holds Near Two-Month Highs
Oil is pulling back this morning after climbing for five straight sessions, with Brent trading near $88 a barrel and WTI just below $83. The pause comes as traders weigh conflicting signals on the Strait of Hormuz: President Trump said Wednesday the U.S. has "total control" over the waterway, even as reports suggest Iran-Oman talks on reopening it have reached an advanced stage. U.S. crude inventories also rose by 17.4 million barrels last week — the biggest weekly build since early 2023 — which is adding some downward pressure.
Gold spiked to roughly $4,450 an ounce overnight, its highest level since early June, before easing back to trade just under $4,400 in European trading this morning. The move is being driven by the same cooling-inflation, softer-U.S.-dollar dynamic lifting stocks.
The Loonie
The Canadian dollar is holding close to the eight-week high it touched earlier this week, trading around 1.391–1.394 USD/CAD (roughly 71.7–71.9 cents US). The loonie's recent strength traces back to last week's blowout July jobs report, which raised the odds the Bank of Canada stays on hold or even leans hawkish, even as a surprise U.S. jobs loss the same week pulled the other side of the pair down.
6 Days to the Tariff Deadline
Ottawa and Washington remain apart with less than a week to go before Trump's threatened 50% tariffs on a wide swath of Canadian goods — alcohol, dairy, autos, hockey sticks, cement, furniture and more — are set to take effect Aug. 19. Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc met U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer in Washington on Tuesday for the third time in three weeks. According to CBC News, the Americans offered a new proposal that would lower some sectoral tariffs, but Canadian officials say it doesn't go far enough and are not satisfied with the offer. Both sides have reportedly agreed to daily meetings through the deadline, and Prime Minister Carney is expected back from Italy on Aug. 17 to be directly involved in the final stretch.
What It Means for You
- RRSP/TFSA holders: Another record TSX close plus Wall Street hovering near its own records is good news for balances heading into the fall, but with a tariff deadline and a Fed decision still ahead in September, expect more volatility before things settle.
- Gas prices: Oil's pause after five days of gains should mean pump prices hold roughly steady over the next few days rather than climbing further, though a Hormuz breakthrough (in either direction) could move things quickly.
- Cross-border shoppers and snowbirds: The loonie near an eight-week high makes U.S. purchases and travel modestly cheaper right now than they were a few weeks ago.
- If you buy wine, cheese, or a new vehicle: Watch the next six days closely. If no deal is reached, the 50% tariffs affecting these categories take effect Aug. 19, and price impacts could follow quickly for anything sourced from the U.S. or exported there.
What to Watch
- Today: U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for July, plus weekly jobless claims
- Aug. 17: Statistics Canada releases July CPI — the last major inflation read before the Bank of Canada's rate decision
- Aug. 19: Deadline for the threatened 50% U.S. tariffs on a wide range of Canadian goods
- Sept. 2: Bank of Canada interest rate decision
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Market data reflects prices as of the time of writing and can change quickly.
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