Monday, August 10, 2026
Canadian and global markets head into the new week riding one of the strongest stretches of the summer. The TSX just posted its best week in about four months and closed at a fresh record Friday, Wall Street notched record closes of its own, and gold is sitting near all-time highs. The mood this morning is cautiously upbeat, but two threads are doing most of the work behind the scenes: whether Iran and Oman can actually reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and whether Ottawa and Washington can strike a deal before the August 19 tariff deadline — now just nine days away.
🇨🇦 TSX: Fresh Record, Best Week Since Early Spring
The S&P/TSX Composite closed Friday at a record 36,381.23, up 244.92 points (+0.70%) on the day. For the week, the index gained roughly 3.3% — its biggest weekly advance in about four months. Gold and mining stocks led the charge, supercharged by a blowout July jobs report: Canada added 75,100 jobs versus the roughly 17,800 economists expected, and the unemployment rate fell to 6.4%, its lowest reading since mid-2024.
| Canadian Markets (Fri. close) | Level | Change |
|---|
| S&P/TSX Composite | 36,381.23 | +0.70% ▲ |
| USD/CAD | ≈1.396 | Loonie firmer ▲ |
The loonie has actually been the quieter story this week — it's strengthened to around 1.396 USD/CAD from roughly 1.402 a week ago, helped along by that strong jobs data and a softer U.S. dollar. A stronger loonie is a small win at the pumps for cross-border shoppers and snowbirds, even with everything else going on.
🇺🇸 Wall Street: Records on a Weak Jobs Report
U.S. stocks also closed out the week at records, and for a similar reason as Canada's rally — but with the opposite jobs signal. American employers unexpectedly cut 23,000 jobs in July versus an expected gain of roughly 80,000, which traders read as taking a near-term Federal Reserve rate hike off the table.
| U.S. Markets | Fri. Close | Change |
|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,757.64 | +0.62% ▲ (record) |
| Dow Jones | 54,036.93 | +0.28% ▲ (record) |
| Nasdaq Composite | 26,690.62 | +1.30% ▲ |
This morning's futures (as of early Monday): S&P 500 futures +0.6% (~7,782), Dow futures roughly flat to slightly lower (54,075, -0.14%), Nasdaq futures +0.18%. The VIX "fear gauge" ticked up modestly to 15.46.
It was the S&P 500's best week since April, up about 3.6%, with the Nasdaq up 5.2% on a chip-stock bounce-back. For anyone with U.S. equity exposure in an RRSP or TFSA, it's been a strong run — though a market this close to record highs, on a soft jobs number, is exactly the kind of setup where a little volatility wouldn't be surprising.
🌍 Europe & Asia: Near Records, Watching Hormuz
European markets closed out last week near multi-year highs — the pan-European Stoxx 600 has been notching fresh 52-week records, with Germany's DAX and France's CAC 40 both firmer on Friday. Futures were pointing to a subdued, roughly flat open Monday as investors wait on word from the Strait of Hormuz talks rather than push indexes higher from here.
| Global Markets | Level | Change |
|---|
| FTSE 100 (Fri.) | 10,901.09 | +0.31% ▲ |
| DAX (Fri.) | 26,319.45 | +0.69% ▲ |
| CAC 40 (Fri.) | 8,714.93 | +0.17% ▲ |
| Nikkei 225 (Mon.) | 66,970.22 | +2.08% ▲ |
| Kospi (Mon.) | 6,299.66 | +0.65% ▲ |
| ASX 200 (Mon.) | 9,232.60 | -0.33% ▼ |
🛢️ Oil, Gold & the Loonie
Oil is climbing for a third straight session, with Brent crude near $84 US/barrel and WTI around $79. Iran said over the weekend that talks with Oman on a shipping arrangement through the Strait of Hormuz were nearing an agreement, but stressed that any deal would not mean an immediate reopening of the waterway — and reports of a tanker attack in the strait over the weekend, plus a claimed Houthi strike on a Saudi refinery, are keeping a risk premium in the price. If you fill up in the next few days, don't expect the recent relief at the pumps to continue; it could tick back up.
Gold remains near record territory, trading around US$4,335–4,390 an ounce, which works out to roughly C$6,050 an ounce at current exchange rates. For anyone holding gold miners or a gold ETF inside an RRSP or TFSA, that's been one of the best-performing corners of the market all year — the same rally that's been powering the TSX higher.
💰 What It Means for You
- RRSP/TFSA holders: Both the TSX and Wall Street are sitting at or near records — a good moment to check that your portfolio hasn't drifted away from your target mix, rather than chasing the rally further.
- Gas prices: Oil's three-day climb on Hormuz uncertainty means the recent dip at the pumps may not last much longer.
- Cross-border shoppers & snowbirds: A firmer loonie (≈1.396) makes U.S. purchases and travel marginally cheaper than they were a week ago.
- Exporters, and anyone in trade-exposed jobs: The clock is now inside 10 days to the August 19 U.S. tariff deadline, with talks ongoing in Washington and no deal yet confirmed.
📅 What to Watch This Week
- Aug. 19 tariff deadline: Nine days out. Canadian negotiators remain in Washington; Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre has publicly pressed the Carney government not to concede ground without tariff-free access for lumber, steel, aluminum and autos.
- Strait of Hormuz talks: Any confirmed Iran-Oman agreement — or breakdown — will likely move oil prices quickly in either direction this week.
- U.S. earnings: A busy week of results continues, with Super Micro Computer, CoreWeave and Cisco Systems among the names reporting.
- Sept. 2 Bank of Canada decision: Still three weeks out, but this week's inflation and trade headlines will shape expectations heading into it.
Market levels reflect Friday's official close and Monday morning pre-market/futures data unless otherwise noted, and can change quickly during the trading day. This article is for general information only and isn't personalized investment advice.
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