The Mortgage Renewal Wave Just Peaked — Here's What the Data Actually Shows

Published August 30, 2026

For three years, "the mortgage renewal wall" has been the scariest phrase in Canadian personal finance — the idea that a flood of ultra-cheap, pandemic-era mortgages would come due at much higher rates and trigger a wave of forced sales. That wall is now mostly behind us. Two new 2026 surveys, one from Royal LePage and one from Rates.ca, show what actually happened when it hit. The short version: it hurt, budgets tightened hard for a lot of people, but the mass default many feared simply didn't show up.

The last big group is renewing right now

Royal LePage's 2026 Mortgage Renewal Survey, released August 19 and based on a Leger poll of 1,127 Canadians renewing this year, pins down where things stand: about 12% of all outstanding Canadian mortgages are five-year, fixed-payment loans taken out during the 2020–2022 ultra-low-rate window, and this is their last major renewal wave. The Bank of Canada's overnight rate sat at just 0.25% through most of 2021 before climbing to 4.25% by the end of 2022 — a jump that reshaped what "affordable" means for anyone locking in a new rate today.

The good news first: fear has actually eased since last year. In early 2025, 57% of renewing borrowers expected their payments to rise. In the new survey, that's down to 38%, with 26% expecting a slight increase and 12% a significant one. Another 31% expect payments to stay roughly flat, and 17% expect a decrease.

But for the people who are seeing increases, the budget hit is real

This is where the two surveys line up and reinforce each other. Rates.ca (Leger fieldwork, July 24–26) found that borrowing costs rose for 82% of Canadians whose mortgages renewed since January, most commonly by 2 to 4.99 percentage points. Of those, 45% now say their mortgage eats up half or more of their entire household budget. Royal LePage's numbers tell a similar story from a different angle: among people expecting a payment increase, 76% say it will strain their finances — most describing that strain as "slight" (46%), but 30% calling it significant.

For comparison, RBC's own affordability guidance says housing costs — principal, interest, property tax, heat, condo fees — shouldn't exceed 30-32% of gross income. A lot of recent renewers are running well past that.

What it means for you: If your renewal is coming up in the next 6–12 months, both surveys point the same direction — start shopping 120 days out, not 30. Rates.ca's Victor Tran and Royal LePage both flag that window specifically, and it's long enough to compare lenders, not just take whatever your current bank offers.

Who's getting hit hardest

Age is the sharpest dividing line in the data. Rates.ca found 90% of homeowners aged 18–34 renewed at a higher rate, and 56% of that group now spend 50–70% of their household budget on housing. Royal LePage's regional breakdown shows Saskatchewan and Manitoba residents are most likely to expect a payment increase (43%), while Alberta is least likely (29%) — though Albertans who do expect an increase report the highest expected financial strain of any province, at 82%.

Toronto and Vancouver homeowners report the most renewal anxiety of any major market — 39% and 45% respectively say they feel more anxious than at their last renewal, compared to 34% in Montreal and 32% in Calgary. Royal LePage's Adil Dinani in Vancouver points to loan size as the reason: the same rate increase adds a few hundred dollars a month in a cheaper market, but a much bigger dollar amount when the underlying mortgage is larger.

The default wave that didn't happen

Here's the part that should reassure anyone who's been bracing for a housing-market shock: CMHC data cited in the Royal LePage report shows the national mortgage delinquency rate (90+ days past due) rose from just 0.21% in Q4 2024 to 0.24% in Q4 2025. That's up, but it's nowhere near the "mortgage cliff" scenario that got floated a couple of years ago. Toronto saw one of the larger increases among major markets, from 0.20% to 0.29%, and Royal LePage's Tom Storey notes power-of-sale listings are ticking up there — but even he frames it as a lagging, gradual pressure rather than a crisis.

Part of the reason: the federal stress test. Anyone who bought when rates were near 0.25% had to qualify at the higher of their contract rate plus 2 points, or 5.25% — meaning most 2021-era borrowers were already tested against rates close to what they're renewing at now.

How people are actually adjusting

Among Royal LePage respondents expecting financial strain, the most common responses are cutting discretionary spending (58%), pulling back on travel (48%), and delaying or cancelling renovations (38%). What's notably rare is people actually moving: 71% of borrowers say they're not changing their living situation to reduce housing costs, even when they expect a payment jump. Of the smaller group considering a change, 7% are looking at relocating somewhere cheaper, 5% are weighing renting out part of their home, and 5% are considering downsizing.

On the mortgage itself, 70% of current holders have a fixed rate versus 29% variable, but going into their next term the group is nearly evenly split three ways: 43% plan fixed, 16% plan variable, and 39% say they'll wait and compare before deciding. Just under half (49%) plan to stay with their current lender, while 44% intend to shop around.

What it means for you: If you're a landlord with a mortgage renewing in this window, the same math applies to your rental units — and in Ontario, a payment increase on your side doesn't automatically justify passing costs to tenants above the province's rent-increase guideline. Budget the renewal shock separately from any rent adjustment plans.

The bottom line

The pandemic-era renewal wave is ending roughly the way Canada's stress-test rules were designed to handle it: painfully for household budgets, but without the systemic wave of defaults that was widely predicted a couple of years ago. If your renewal is still ahead of you, the data suggests two things worth doing now — start comparing lenders well before your renewal date, and build your budget around the higher end of what you might pay, since 82% of recent renewers saw their rate go up.

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Sources: Royal LePage 2026 Mortgage Renewal Survey (Leger/Burson, July 20–Aug 6, 2026, n=1,127); Rates.ca/Leger survey (July 24–26, 2026); CMHC Residential Mortgage Industry Report, Spring 2026; RBC mortgage affordability guidelines.