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Canada's Economy Just Grew 3.3% — Here's Why That Makes a September Rate Cut Even Less Likely

  Published August 29, 2026 If you've been holding out hope that a slowing economy might finally push the Bank of Canada toward a rate cut, Friday's numbers just closed that door a little further. Statistics Canada reported that the Canadian economy grew at an annualized pace of 3.3% in the second quarter — the fastest rate since 2023 — and revised figures show the first quarter expanded 0.3% rather than shrinking as originally reported. That confirms Canada never actually slid into a technical recession this year. It's good news for the economy. It's less good news if you were counting on lower borrowing costs anytime soon. What actually drove the growth The rebound was broad-based. Exports posted their strongest performance in 39 months, business investment in factories, equipment and commercial real estate jumped, and consumer spending held up as well. On a per-person basis, output grew at a 3.8% annualized clip — the quickest pace since late 2021, even with Canada...
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Weekly Market Snapshot: Gold's Wild Ride, TSX Slips as Warsh Rattles Markets

 

It was a week that started with the TSX chasing records and ended with new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh reminding everyone the inflation fight isn't over. Big bank earnings rolled in strong, Nvidia delivered a blockbuster quarter, and gold went from a fresh record above $4,700 to a sharp Friday selloff — all in five trading days. Here's what moved your money this week, and what's coming up.

🇨🇦 Canadian Markets

IndexClose (Fri)Week Change
S&P/TSX Composite36,553.92▼ down on the week
Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD)~71.98¢ USroughly flat

The TSX opened the week near record territory (36,834 Thursday, its second-highest close ever) on the strength of a clean finish to Big Five bank earnings — RBC posted a record $6.0 billion quarterly profit, CIBC's adjusted income jumped 26%, and Scotiabank's PCLs came in better than feared. But Friday turned rough: the index dropped roughly 280 points (-0.77%) to 36,553.92 as Warsh's hawkish tone hit both banks and gold miners, even as Statistics Canada's GDP report pointed to a stronger-than-expected economy.

What it means for you: if your portfolio or RRSP has meaningful bank exposure, this week's earnings were reassuring — provisions for credit losses stayed manageable, and mortgage renewal data suggests most homeowners are absorbing higher rates better than feared. The pullback in gold miners, though, is a reminder that even "safe haven" holdings can swing hard on a single Fed speech.

🇺🇸 U.S. Markets

IndexClose (Fri)Week Change
Dow Jones53,559.99▲ +0.5% on week
S&P 5007,711.76▲ +0.5% on week
Nasdaq Composite26,402.42▲ +0.9% on week

Nvidia stole the show mid-week: after an initial post-earnings dip, shares reversed to close up roughly 8.7–9.1%, the stock's biggest one-day gain since April 2025, on a 70% forward revenue guide that blew past the ~44% Wall Street expected. That lifted the Nasdaq to fresh highs alongside Salesforce and Broadcom. But Friday's Jackson Hole speech from Warsh — his first as Fed Chair — pushed September rate-hike odds up sharply (from about 35% to as high as 57%), pulling all three major U.S. indices modestly lower to close the week, even though each still finished with a weekly gain.

What it means for you: rate-hike odds jumping this much, this fast, is unusual — markets had been pricing in cuts for months. If you're carrying a U.S.-dollar mortgage, HELOC, or variable-rate debt, or you're watching bond yields for a GIC renewal, this is worth watching heading into September.

🌍 Europe & Asia

European markets traded mixed-to-higher through the week, with London's FTSE and Frankfurt's DAX holding near recent levels as investors awaited the Jackson Hole outcome. In Asia, Japan's Nikkei hovered near 66,000–66,700, boosted early in the week by the Nvidia-fueled tech rally, while South Korea's Kospi swung between gains and chip-sector profit-taking. Hong Kong's Hang Seng extended a multi-day winning streak on the back of the same U.S. tech strength before global markets turned cautious into Friday's speech.

🛢️ Commodities

CommodityFriday Level
Gold (spot)~US$4,480–4,500/oz
Brent Crude~US$88–89/bbl
WTI Crude~US$82–83/bbl

Gold had one of its wildest sessions of the year on Friday, swinging from near $4,700 earlier in the week down to an intraday low around $4,530 and settling roughly 2.5–3% lower on the day after Warsh's remarks. Oil extended a multi-week slide, with Brent down more than 5% on the week, as easing Strait of Hormuz tensions and a new Iran-Oman revenue-sharing framework reduced fears of a supply disruption.

What it means for you: if you hold gold in a TFSA or RRSP as a hedge, this week was a reminder it isn't immune to volatility around Fed decisions. On the flip side, softer oil is starting to show up at the pump — worth watching closely with the federal gas tax holiday set to expire September 7.

📅 What to Watch Next Week

  • Bank of Canada rate decision — Tuesday, September 2
  • Canada's Sept. 8 retaliatory tariffs (steel, dairy, appliances, ag equipment, pulp and paper, electronics) take shape
  • Federal gas tax holiday expires September 7
  • September Fed rate-hike odds — now materially higher post-Jackson Hole — likely to keep moving markets

Market levels reflect Friday, August 28, 2026 closing or late-session prices and are approximate; always verify current figures before making investment decisions. This is general information, not financial advice.

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