Weekly Market Snapshot | July 27–31, 2026
It was a week that swung from record highs to a near-panic and back again. The Fed held rates but split three ways doing it, Iran struck at U.S. forces overnight, oil prices whipsawed by double digits, and South Korea's stock market had both its worst crash and its best day ever — in the same five trading sessions. Here's what happened, and what it means for your wallet.
The Bottom Line
The TSX finished the week essentially flat, down about 0.4%, after touching a fresh record on Tuesday and then getting rattled by Wednesday's Fed decision and an Iran-U.S. flare-up. The loonie actually strengthened to its best level since June, oil prices remain volatile on Middle East risk, and bond yields jumped on a surprisingly divided Fed — a detail that matters for anyone renewing a fixed-rate mortgage before the Bank of Canada's September 2 decision.
🇨🇦 Canada: TSX Ends July on a Wobble
The S&P/TSX Composite set its third straight record close on Tuesday before a hawkish Fed decision and fresh Iran-U.S. tensions triggered Wall Street's worst day since April, dragging Toronto down with it. A Thursday rebound couldn't quite hold, and the index slipped again Friday as gold prices eased.
| Day | TSX Close | Change | Why |
|---|
| Mon, Jul 27 | 35,568.14 | +0.56% | Relief rally as a weekend US-Iran strike pause crashed oil prices |
| Tue, Jul 28 | 35,749.70 | +0.51% | Record close #3 in a row, even as Korea's chip-stock crash rattled global tech |
| Wed, Jul 29 | 35,333.78 | -1.16% | Hawkish Fed hold (9-3 split vote) plus an Iran missile attack on US forces |
| Thu, Jul 30 | 35,505.84 | +0.49% | Bank rebound (TD +2%, Scotiabank +1.6%) and rising gold prices lifted miners |
| Fri, Jul 31 | 35,226.14 | -0.79% | Gold slid on a weaker U.S. dollar, pulling resource-heavy TSX lower |
| Week Net | 35,226.14 | ~-0.40% | Essentially flat vs. last Friday's 35,369.10 close |
🇺🇸 United States: A Wild Ride to a Strong Finish
Wall Street had one of its most volatile weeks of the summer. The Federal Reserve held its benchmark rate at 3.50%-3.75% on Wednesday, but the 9-3 vote — the most divided Fed decision in nearly a decade, with three members wanting a hike — combined with an overnight Iranian missile attack on U.S. forces to spark the Dow's worst day since April. Big Tech earnings then took over: Microsoft's Azure results and a Thursday rally erased most of the damage, and Amazon's blowout cloud numbers on Friday pushed the major indexes to fresh weekly highs even as Apple slid on soft guidance.
| Index | Friday Close | Friday Change |
|---|
| Dow Jones | 52,485.03 | +0.53% |
| S&P 500 | 7,489.72 | +0.70% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 25,373.85 | +1.00% |
Mid-week low point: the Dow fell roughly 2.2% Wednesday to 51,594.14 — its worst single day since April — before Thursday's Microsoft/Meta-driven rally (+1.2%) and Friday's Amazon-led gains brought it back to a weekly high.
🇪🇺 Europe: Quiet Pullback After a Record-Setting Month
European markets were the week's calm corner. The pan-European STOXX 600 touched a fresh record intraday before easing back to close down 0.1% at 649.19 on Friday, still logging a monthly gain. London's FTSE 100 dipped 0.3% off its own record highs but still finished the week and month higher, helped by strong bank earnings (NatWest jumped over 3%) even as the Bank of England held its policy rate at 3.75% on Thursday. Germany's DAX stayed near record territory, and euro-zone inflation data (up to 2.9% in July) kept the door open for another European Central Bank rate move later this year.
🌏 Asia: From Historic Crash to Historic Rally
This was the week's biggest story. South Korea's KOSPI plunged 10.8% on Tuesday — triggering circuit breakers as chip giants Samsung and SK Hynix each fell more than 13% — as a wave of deleveraging swept through global semiconductor stocks. By Friday, the same index staged its best single day in history, surging nearly 18% as Samsung and SK Hynix each jumped more than 26% on renewed AI-chip optimism following Microsoft's and Amazon's earnings. Even after Friday's historic bounce, the KOSPI still finished the month of July down about 22%. Japan's Nikkei 225 followed a similar, smaller-scale path: down almost 4% Tuesday, then up roughly 4% Friday to close near 64,200. Hong Kong's Hang Seng was comparatively steady through the turbulence.
🛢️ Oil, Gold, and the Loonie
| Asset | Friday Level | The Story |
|---|
| Brent Crude | ~$87-90/bbl | Whipsawed from over $100 mid-week (Iran attack, Red Sea tanker strikes) down to the high $80s as a US-Iran truce briefly held, then ticked back up on fresh tanker incidents near the Strait of Hormuz |
| WTI Crude | ~$84.61/bbl | Tracking Brent's swings; expect continued pump-price volatility while Middle East risk stays elevated |
| Gold | ~$4,076/oz | Eased about 0.5% Friday after two up days, but still holding well above where it started the year |
| USD/CAD | ~1.404 | Loonie strengthened to its best level since June as the Fed's hawkish-but-uncertain hold weighed broadly on the US dollar |
💡 What It Means for You
- Mortgage renewers: Bond yields jumped this week on the Fed's divided decision — the 10-year US Treasury yield hit its highest since January. That pressure tends to filter into fixed mortgage rates ahead of the Bank of Canada's September 2 decision, so it's worth locking in rate quotes now if you're renewing soon.
- RRSP/TFSA holders with tech exposure: If your portfolio includes semiconductor or Big Tech names, this week was a reminder of how fast sentiment can flip — a nearly 11% one-day drop followed by an 18% one-day gain in the same index within four trading days.
- Cross-border shoppers and US travellers: The stronger loonie (near 1.40) makes US purchases and travel modestly cheaper than they've been since June.
- Drivers: With Brent still swinging on Middle East headlines, don't be surprised by pump-price moves in either direction over the next week or two.
📅 What to Watch Next Week
- Monday, Aug 3 — Civic Holiday: the TSX and Canadian banks are closed.
- Ongoing — The clock keeps ticking toward the Aug 19 deadline for the new US 50% tariff on Canadian goods (wine, dairy, furniture, hockey gear); watch for trade-talk headlines.
- Ongoing — Any further developments in the Strait of Hormuz/Red Sea shipping situation, which remains the key swing factor for oil prices.
- Through the long weekend — The WestJet/CUPE labour dispute could affect holiday travel; check flight status before heading to the airport.
- Looking ahead — All eyes turn toward the Bank of Canada's September 2 rate decision, with this week's bond-yield jump adding a new wrinkle to the outlook.
This Weekly Market Snapshot is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment, tax, or financial advice. Market data reflects closing levels as of Friday, July 31, 2026, and is sourced from public market data providers. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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