September 19, 2026
It was the week everyone was waiting for. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the first time in three years — and almost immediately, markets started debating whether there's more to come. Meanwhile, oil pulled back from the week's highs but stayed well above $100 a barrel, and the TSX managed its first weekly gain after four straight weeks in the red. Here's everything that moved markets — and what it means for your wallet.
🍁 Canada — TSX
| Index | Friday Close | Week Change |
|---|
| S&P/TSX Composite | 35,806.65 | +0.3% |
After four straight weeks in negative territory, the TSX finally caught a break — though "break" is generous. The index eked out a 0.3% weekly gain while closing Friday down 69.58 points (-0.2%), as rising bond yields and lingering energy-sector pressures kept the mood cautious on Bay Street. Financials were mixed: RBC edged slightly lower, TD rose 0.6%, but Fairfax Financial slid 2.6%. Gold miners pulled back after rallying sharply Thursday, with Agnico Eagle down 1.1%, Barrick off 1.5% and WPM losing 1%. On the tech side, Shopify dipped 0.4% while Celestica added 0.7%.
The bigger story all week was the Canada Investment Summit in Toronto (Sept. 14–15). Prime Minister Carney hosted roughly 250 global executives overseeing an estimated $120 trillion in assets — including BlackRock's Larry Fink and Blackstone's Jon Gray — with a stated goal of attracting $1 trillion in investment to Canada over five years. A flurry of multi-billion-dollar funding announcements followed.
💡 What It Means for YouThe TSX is still roughly 3–4% off its late-August record (~37,069). For Canadian investors holding diversified equity funds or ETFs, the week's modest bounce changes little. Gold miners and energy names continue to whipsaw on geopolitical news — if those are a big part of your RRSP or TFSA, expect ongoing volatility.
🪙 Canadian Dollar
| Pair | Friday Close | Week Trend |
|---|
| USD/CAD | ~1.3938 (≈71.7 US cents) | Loonie softened |
The loonie gave ground this week as the Fed's rate hike reinforced the U.S. dollar's strength. The Canadian dollar drifted toward the 71.4–71.7 US cent range by Friday, reflecting the widening interest rate differential between a hiking Fed (now 3.75–4.00%) and a still-on-hold Bank of Canada (2.25%). For Canadians shopping cross-border or paying in USD — from streaming subscriptions to travel — a weaker loonie means slightly higher effective costs.
🇺🇸 United States
| Index | Friday Close | Week Change |
|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,650.50 | −0.1% |
| Dow Jones | 51,682.64 | −1.7% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 26,522.55 | +0.7% |
| Russell 2000 | 2,860.40 | Declined |
The week's dominant event: the Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00% on Wednesday — its first hike in three years — and signalled more tightening ahead. The vote was 12–0, and 16 of 18 policymakers saw at least one additional hike in 2026. Markets are now pricing roughly a 58% chance of another move in October.
The reaction was textbook: stocks sold off hard Wednesday and Thursday, then rebounded Friday as oil prices eased for a third straight session and some of the inflation pressure came off. The divergence between indices told the real story — the Nasdaq held up (tech/AI names proved resilient), while the rate-sensitive Dow and small-cap Russell felt the brunt. The 10-year Treasury yield briefly topped 5% mid-week for the first time since 2007 before pulling back slightly to close there.
Elsewhere, Warren Buffett announced he is stepping down as Chairman of Berkshire Hathaway, handing the role to his son Howard Buffett (though he stays on the board). Apple's iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max launched Friday under new CEO John Ternus. The Senate failed to advance the CLARITY Act, weighing briefly on crypto stocks before a Friday rebound pushed Bitcoin above $81,000.
💡 What It Means for YouThe Fed's move doesn't directly set Canadian mortgage rates, but it reinforces a global higher-for-longer environment. With the Bank of Canada already hinting at potential hikes of its own and 10-year yields above 5% in the U.S. (and near 4% in Canada), fixed mortgage rates in Canada are unlikely to fall anytime soon. If you're renewing in the next 6–12 months, this week's Fed action is one more reason to model both fixed and variable scenarios carefully.
🇪🇺 Europe
| Index | Friday Close | Week Change |
|---|
| STOXX Europe 600 | 635.45 | +0.5% (week) |
| FTSE 100 (London) | 10,659.13 | −1.45% (Fri) |
| DAX (Germany) | 25,304.06 | −1.60% (Fri) |
| CAC 40 (France) | 8,065.02 | −1.49% (Fri) |
Europe had a wild week. The STOXX 600 sank to a three-month low Tuesday after escalating Middle East tensions drove Brent crude past $113 a barrel intraday before reversing. The pan-European benchmark still managed a 0.54% weekly advance — a rebound from a very rough start — though Friday saw broad selling as energy stocks retreated alongside declining oil prices and global yields stayed elevated.
The European Central Bank raised interest rates by 25 basis points on September 10 (the week prior), taking its deposit rate to 2.50%. No additional ECB action occurred this week, but ECB President Lagarde's dovish push-back against further tightening pricing continued to shape bond market sentiment. The Bank of England held rates this week but issued fresh warnings about sticky inflation — energy prices remain the key risk across the eurozone.
🌏 Asia-Pacific
| Index | Week Direction | Key Move |
|---|
| Nikkei 225 (Japan) | +1.8% Fri | 65,290 — BoJ hiked rates to 31-year high |
| Hang Seng (Hong Kong) | +0.7% Fri | ~24,773 — tech names led the recovery |
| Shanghai Composite | Roughly flat | ~3,950 range |
| Kospi (South Korea) | Volatile | Dipped below 7,000 earlier; partial recovery |
Asia's headline event: the Bank of Japan raised interest rates Friday to their highest level in 31 years, in another sign that global monetary policy is tightening on multiple fronts. The Nikkei jumped 1.8% on the day as AI and tech names — SoftBank, Advantest — led the charge. The Hang Seng added 0.7% on softer U.S. yields and strength in Hong Kong tech stocks. South Korea's Kospi, which broke below 7,000 earlier in the week for the first time in months, staged a partial recovery by Friday's close.
🛢️ Oil
| Benchmark | Friday Close | Week Trend |
|---|
| WTI Crude (US) | US$100.30/bbl | High for week: ~$106 |
| Brent Crude (Global) | US$104.87/bbl | High for week: ~$113 (Tue) |
Oil had one of its wildest weeks of the year. Brent surged above $113 a barrel on Tuesday after Saudi Arabia's East-West "Petroline" pipeline remained shut following drone strikes near Medina — removing a key oil-export bypass route that handles roughly 4–5 million barrels per day. The Saudi Aramco cancellation of September cargoes to Europe added fuel to the spike.
By Friday, prices had retreated to ~$105 Brent and ~$100 WTI, with Reuters reporting that China — acting on a Saudi request — asked Iran to rein in Houthi attacks on Saudi infrastructure. The Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, with only a handful of commodity vessels transiting per day against a 10-day average of roughly 16. The situation is far from resolved.
In Canada, the CAA national gas average hovered around 177–179¢/L this week — elevated, but partially cushioned by the federal gas tax holiday extended to January 31, 2027.
💡 What It Means for YouOil above $100 keeps inflation elevated and gives the Bank of Canada political cover to raise rates further — a scenario National Bank and Scotiabank already forecast for October 28. Every 10¢/L increase at the pump costs the average Canadian driver roughly $300–$400 more per year. With winter heating season approaching, elevated natural gas prices remain a secondary watch.
🥇 Gold & Precious Metals
| Metal | Friday (Spot, Late Session) | Week Trend |
|---|
| Gold (USD/oz) | ~US$4,382 | Weekly gain — reversed mid-week dip |
| Silver (USD/oz) | ~US$66.13 | +1.6% Friday |
Gold had a roller-coaster week. Prices dropped sharply to ~$4,332/oz earlier in the week as surging bond yields and rising Fed-hike odds crushed the precious metals complex. Then the Fed hiked — and gold bounced. By Friday, spot gold was near $4,382, holding a weekly gain as oil's three-day pullback reduced immediate inflation pressure and short-covering kicked in.
The dynamic for gold right now is genuinely two-sided: the oil shock easing is constructive (lower inflation risk), but a Fed that's still hiking and a 10-year Treasury at 5% limits the upside. The Strait of Hormuz and Saudi pipeline risk maintain a defensive floor under bullion. Silver outperformed on Friday, rising 1.6% to above $66.
For Canadian investors, gold continues to be worth holding in a TFSA or RRSP as a hedge against both Middle East uncertainty and the trade-war overhang — but expect continued choppiness as markets recalibrate around the Fed's next move.
🏦 Bank of Canada Context
The BoC held at 2.25% on September 2 but shifted explicitly hawkish — flagging elevated oil prices and Canada's retaliation tariffs as upside inflation risks. This week's Fed hike to 3.75–4.00% deepens the rate gap between the two central banks, putting downward pressure on the loonie and adding to imported inflation risk for Canada.
Markets are now pricing roughly a 55–60% chance of a BoC hike at the October 28 meeting, up from under 30% before the September 2 statement. National Bank and Scotiabank formally forecast a move to 2.50% by end of October; BMO and TD still hold through 2026/2027. Canada's August CPI came in at 3.0% YoY on September 14 — unchanged from July but the first read to incorporate the September 8 retaliation tariff effect.
📅 What to Watch Next Week
📌 Key Dates: Sept. 22–26, 2026- Trump–Xi Summit— Focus on Gulf tensions, trade, and whether Iran-related oil disruptions become part of the broader U.S.–China diplomatic agenda
- Canada Retail Sales (Aug.)— First consumer spending read post-tariffs; will show whether Canadians are front-loading or pulling back
- US Sept. 29 Import Bans— Countdown at 10 days: U.S. bans on Canadian alcohol (beer/wine/spirits), whey/molasses, and motorcycles over 800cc take effect
- Oil/Strait of Hormuz— Any progress on maritime diplomacy (or lack thereof) remains the single biggest near-term market catalyst
- Fed speakers— Watch for any signals on whether October's hike is locked in or still conditional on data
- BoC October 28 meeting— With 5 weeks to go, the September CPI print on Oct. 20 and oil trajectory will be decisive
All market data sourced from Reuters, BNN Bloomberg, MarketScreener, Yahoo Finance, Kitco, and Trading Economics as of market close Friday, September 19, 2026. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. © MoneySavings.ca
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