5 Things to Know Today — September 27, 2026

 

Sunday, September 27, 2026  |  MoneySavings.ca

A milestone in the Canada-US trade war hits at midnight, the Bank of Canada's rate decision is now a near-coin-flip, and Canada's economic pivot to China is showing real results. Here are the five things that matter for your wallet today.

01 OF 05

The US Alcohol Import Ban Takes Effect Tonight at Midnight

At 12:01 a.m. Eastern tonight, the United States stops accepting new shipments of packaged Canadian beer, wine, cider, and spirits. The ban was signed by President Trump on September 8 under Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930, escalating the trade dispute beyond the 50% tariffs that took effect on August 22.

Everything already on US store shelves stays there and can still be sold — the ban stops restocking, not consumption. Goods imported before tonight but not yet cleared through customs remain subject to the 50% duty rather than the ban. Bulk spirits shipped in containers over four litres are exempt; consumer-sized bottles are not.

The White House cited Saskatchewan's own 50% levy on US alcohol (effective September 8) as evidence Canada had escalated rather than resolved the dispute. Canada's own LCBO ban on US alcohol, in place since March 2025, remains unchanged.

💰 What It Means for YouIf you buy Canadian brands like Crown Royal or Polar Ice in the US, tonight is the last day new stock crosses the border. On the Canadian side, nothing changes for consumers — but Ontario's alcohol industry, which ships roughly $1B annually to the US (about 90% of all Canadian alcohol exports), faces a full shutoff of that market starting tomorrow.

02 OF 05

BoC Rate Hike Odds Now Near 63% for October 28

The Bank of Canada's October 28 rate decision has gone from a near-certain hold to a genuine toss-up in a matter of weeks. Overnight index swap pricing as of September 25 implies roughly a 59–63% probability of a hike from the current 2.25%, compared to 94% odds of a hold just before the September 2 decision.

The shift followed the US Federal Reserve's September 16 hike — its first in over three years — and persistently elevated oil prices keeping headline inflation near 3%. Governor Macklem's September 2 statement explicitly flagged that the BoC was "open to hikes" if inflation did not ease.

Most bank economists still expect a hold: RBC's Claire Fan and Desjardins' Randall Bartlett both told The Canadian Press they see a hike as more likely in early 2027. The critical data point will be the September CPI release on October 19, just nine days before the BoC announcement. National Bank and Scotiabank remain the two major forecasters calling for a move to 2.50% at the October meeting.

💰 What It Means for YouIf you have a variable-rate mortgage or HELOC, a 25-basis-point hike to 2.50% would add roughly $65–70/month per $500k outstanding and about $167/month per $200k on a HELOC (at prime). Fixed-rate renewers should watch the Canada 5-year bond yield closely — it's already sitting near 3.41%, a two-year high, and prices directly into new fixed-rate offers.

03 OF 05

The US and China Just Cut Tariffs on $30 Billion in Goods — What It Means for Canada

Following Chinese President Xi Jinping's visit to Washington, the US and China announced an agreement Friday to reduce tariffs on roughly US$30 billion worth of goods traded between the two countries. The reductions cover US agricultural exports, wood products, and cosmetics going into China, and Chinese small appliances, toys, and decorations going into the US. The two sides also announced an AI dialogue for November.

For Canada, the deal has a complicated optic: it signals that the US is willing to negotiate tariff rollbacks with China — a country it was openly at trade war with — while Canada's own $27.6 billion in retaliatory tariffs against the US remain in full force with no talks scheduled. The US trade representative said this week there is "no urgency" to strike a deal with Canada.

💰 What It Means for YouA US-China thaw could free up supply chains for Chinese-made consumer goods that have been expensive in the US market, which may eventually ease some price pressure on imports. For Canadian exporters, it's a reminder that Canada's trade isolation from the US is, for now, intentional on Washington's side — and that diversification is not optional, it's the strategy.

04 OF 05

Canada's Exports to China Surged 30% in the First Half of 2026

New data from the Canada-China Business Council and the University of Alberta's China Institute shows Canadian exports to China rose 30.1% year-over-year in the first half of 2026, reaching $21.74 billion. Total two-way trade hit $66.6 billion, up 3.6%. Energy dominated: crude oil and liquefied propane alone grew 81.8%, while metal ores and non-metallic minerals were up 29%.

The surge reflects the deal Carney struck with Xi earlier this year — Canada opened the door to 15,603 Chinese EVs in exchange for Beijing suspending tariffs on Canadian agricultural products including canola meal and peas, and reducing tariffs on canola seed. Canola prices, which had fallen as low as $12/bushel during the dispute with China, have since rebounded to $17/bushel.

The catch: the tariff suspensions with China only run to the end of 2026, and farmers say they want to reduce reliance on any single trading partner — including China.

💰 What It Means for YouCanada's trade pivot away from the US is showing real early results, especially in energy and agriculture. For investors, Canadian energy and mining stocks with China exposure have been relative outperformers this year. But the China relationship has its own expiry date on the current terms, and both sides know it.

05 OF 05

The Loonie Is Near 70.7 US Cents as Oil Eases on Hormuz Diplomacy

The Canadian dollar closed Friday around 70.70 US cents (approximately 1.4133 USD/CAD) — near its weakest level since mid-July. The loonie has now fallen in 12 of the past 13 sessions since Canada's retaliatory tariffs took effect on September 8.

Crude oil, a key driver of CAD, pulled back this week as Iran offered to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for a reduction in US military activity. Brent crude eased from its peak near $107 to around $104–105 by Friday on those reports. WTI fell to $92.41 on Friday. However, oil remains well above pre-conflict levels and the Hormuz situation is far from resolved — Trump has rejected Iran's terms, and Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia continued through the week.

The US Dollar Index remains near its highest level since late July, and the Fed's rate hike is keeping the US dollar structurally strong against commodity currencies like CAD.

💰 What It Means for YouA weaker loonie makes US imports — including groceries, electronics, and anything cross-border — more expensive for Canadians. At 70.7 US cents, your dollar buys meaningfully less across the border than it did in August at roughly 72–73 cents. If you're planning cross-border shopping or a US trip, factor in the exchange cost. On the upside, a weak CAD boosts the Canadian-dollar value of US-listed investments in your RRSP or TFSA.

Canadian Money Brief is published on MoneySavings.ca. All figures verified at time of publication. This is not financial advice.