5 Things to Know Today: U.S. Alcohol Ban, GDP Day, 5.25% Yields (Sept 29)

 

Tuesday September 29, 2026

A U.S. import ban on Canadian booze kicks in, Statistics Canada reports July GDP, and U.S. bond yields sit at levels not seen since 2007. Here are the five things that matter for your wallet today.

1 The U.S. ban on Canadian alcohol takes effect today

As of 12:01 a.m. ET, the U.S. is refusing entry to many Canadian beer, wine, cider and spirits shipments, along with whey products, molasses and larger motorcycles. The measures were signed Sept. 8 and largely replace the 50% tariffs that applied to these goods. Bottles already in the U.S. can still be sold, and product shipped in bulk to be bottled south of the border appears to fall outside the ban. Canadian producers say pivoting to domestic sales won't be easy, because a patchwork of provincial rules complicates selling across borders.

What it means for you: The ban hits exports, not what you pay at the store. The exposure is for people who work in or own shares of brewers, distillers and wineries, and for small producers hoping "buy Canadian" demand will fill the gap.

2 July GDP lands at 8:30 a.m. ET

Statistics Canada's early estimate showed output essentially unchanged in July, and economists expect a flat reading after June's 0.3% gain. The release also includes a first estimate for August. The second quarter grew 0.8% (roughly 3.3% annualized), helped by World Cup activity that has since faded. Bank of Canada Deputy Governor Toni Gravelle speaks at 1:20 p.m. ET.

What it means for you: A soft number cools bets on a Bank of Canada rate hike at the Oct. 28 decision; a surprise gain firms them up. That feeds directly into what variable-rate mortgages and HELOCs cost.

3 U.S. yields hit 5.25%, and the loonie is paying for it

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose to 5.25% on Monday, its highest since 2007, while the 30-year reached about 5.57%, its highest since 2004. Oil-driven inflation worries and bets on more Fed hikes are fuelling the sell-off. Canadian yields sit well below U.S. ones (the two-year gap was about 153 basis points Friday, the widest since February 2025), and the loonie is around C$1.415 per U.S. dollar, roughly 70.7 U.S. cents, near a 10-week low after a third straight weekly loss.

What it means for you: Canadian fixed mortgage rates follow Canadian bond yields, which tend to drift with U.S. ones. If you renew in the coming months, it may be worth asking your lender about rate-hold terms. A weaker loonie also makes U.S. travel and U.S.-dollar online orders pricier.

4 TSX slides to a one-month low as oil climbs

The S&P/TSX Composite fell 311.03 points, or 0.87%, to 35,489.86 on Monday, with materials, telecoms and financials leading the declines while energy edged higher. Wall Street slid too. Oil rose after President Trump rejected Iran's proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days, with Brent closing near US$105 and WTI near US$93.

Monday close	Level	Change
S&P/TSX Composite	35,489.86	-0.87%
Dow Jones	—	-0.7%
S&P 500	—	-0.8%
Nasdaq	—	-0.9%
Brent crude	~US$105	+0.9%
WTI crude	~US$93	+0.2%
USD/CAD	~1.415	—

What it means for you: For long-term TFSA and RRSP investors, days like this are usually noise. Big swings are a reason to check your asset mix, not to trade on headlines. Higher oil also keeps pressure on gas and heating costs.

5 Your wallet calendar for the rest of the week

Wed. Sept. 30: National Day for Truth and Reconciliation. Stock markets are open, bond markets are closed. The U.S. PCE inflation report, the Fed's preferred gauge, also lands.

Thu. Oct. 1: Ontario's minimum wage rises to $17.95 from $17.60 (up 35 cents, about $728 a year for a 40-hour week). Manitoba, Saskatchewan, Nova Scotia and P.E.I. also raise theirs.

Fri. Oct. 2: The U.S. September jobs report, a key input for Fed rate expectations and bond yields.

What it means for you: If you earn or pay minimum wage in Ontario, make sure the new rate is in payroll by Oct. 1. Bank branch hours on Sept. 30 can vary, so check before you go.

Figures as of Monday's close unless noted. Sources: Reuters, CNBC, Yahoo Finance, Investing.com, CP24, Bloomberg, Statistics Canada, The Globe and Mail, Ontario Ministry of Labour. General information only, not financial advice.