Wednesday, September 2, 2026 — Your quick-read wallet briefing for the day.
1. The Bank of Canada Makes Its Rate Call This Morning
The Bank of Canada announces its sixth rate decision of the year at 9:45am ET today, followed by a press conference with Governor Tiff Macklem at 10:30am ET. Every one of the 35 economists in a recent Reuters poll expects a hold at 2.25%, and bond markets are pricing only a 3% probability of a hike. It would be the Bank's eighth straight hold, even after July's inflation reading came in hot at 3.0% year-over-year, as the Bank weighs tariff uncertainty and Iran-driven energy costs against a surprisingly strong Q2 GDP print of 3.3%.
What it means for you: A hold keeps prime rate at 4.45% and variable mortgage payments unchanged. If you're up for renewal soon, don't expect relief from Ottawa today — any rate movement this year is looking more likely to be a hike than a cut, according to two of the Big Six banks.
2. Oil Surges Near $95 on Fresh Iran Strikes
Brent crude touched its highest level since late July after the U.S. military launched new strikes on Iranian targets near the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran claiming it responded by hitting U.S. bases in the region. Oil is now up more than 13% over the past month as the waterway — a corridor for roughly a fifth of the world's oil — stays a flashpoint.
What it means for you: Higher crude flows straight through to the pump, and it's landing right as a key piece of federal relief is about to disappear (see #4).
3. TSX Slides to a Four-Week Low Ahead of the Decision
Toronto's benchmark index closed Tuesday at 35,825.73, down 1.23% and its lowest close in four weeks, as gold miners and tech names sold off on surging global bond yields — the U.S. 10-year hit its highest level since January 2025, and Japan's 10-year touched a level unseen since 1996. Energy stocks were the lone bright spot, tracking oil's climb.
What it means for you: If your TFSA or RRSP leans on gold miners or growth names, expect some short-term chop. This is a volatility story, not a fundamentals one — Canada's economy just posted its fastest growth since 2023.
4. Five Days Left on the Gas Tax Holiday
The national average sits at 171.2¢/L this morning, according to CAA, and the federal excise tax suspension (10¢/L on gas, 4¢/L on diesel) expires September 7 — five days from today. With oil pushing higher on the Iran conflict, drivers could be facing a double hit: the tax holiday ending right as crude costs climb.
What it means for you: If you've got a big fill-up or a road trip coming, this week is the window. A 60-litre tank could cost roughly $6-8 more once the holiday lapses, before accounting for any further oil-driven price moves.
5. Six Days to Canada's Retaliation Tariffs
Ottawa's retaliatory tariffs on more than $20 billion of U.S. goods — covering steel, dairy, appliances, agricultural equipment, pulp and paper, and electronics — are set to take effect September 8, six days out. The move is a response to the 50% U.S. tariffs that took effect on Canadian goods last month.
What it means for you: If you're shopping for a major appliance or anything in those categories, prices could tick up after next Tuesday. Buying before the deadline may be worth considering if you were already planning the purchase.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always consult a licensed professional for guidance specific to your situation.
Comments
Post a Comment