5 Things to Know Today: Fed Decision Looms, TSX Slides, Gas Prices Climb (Sept 16)

 

Wednesday, September 16, 2026

The Fed's biggest decision in years lands at 2 p.m. ET today, the TSX and loonie are both licking their wounds, and drivers are paying more at the pump despite the gas tax holiday. Here's what's moving your money this morning.

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1. The Fed Decides on Rates Today — and a Hike Looks All but Certain

The Federal Reserve announces its rate decision at 2 p.m. ET, with Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference to follow at 2:30 p.m. Markets have priced in over 90% odds of a 25-basis-point hike, which would lift the target range to 3.75%–4.00% from 3.50%–3.75%, where it's sat since December. It would be the first hike of this cycle, driven by inflation still running above target even as the labour market holds up.

What it means for you: A Fed hike widens the gap with the Bank of Canada's 2.25% rate, which tends to pressure the loonie lower and nudge Canadian bond yields — and by extension fixed mortgage pricing — upward. Watch for the reaction in the hour after 2 p.m.

2. TSX Falls for a Second Straight Session, Loonie at a One-Month Low

The S&P/TSX Composite closed Tuesday at 35,582.07, down 120.46 points or 0.34%, its second consecutive decline as consumer stocks led the drop. The Canadian dollar slipped to 1.3915 per U.S. dollar (about 71.9 U.S. cents), a one-month low, as investors positioned for today's Fed call.

What it means for you: A weaker loonie makes cross-border shopping and U.S. travel pricier. If you hold broad index funds in your RRSP or TFSA, this is a pause after August's rally, not a reason to change course.

3. Oil Pulls Back from Four-Month Highs — But Still Elevated

Brent crude eased to around $107–108 a barrel and WTI to roughly $102–104 today, pulling back after a run to four-month highs, as rising U.S. crude inventories offset ongoing Middle East supply worries. Saudi Arabia's East-West "Petroline" pipeline remains shut, keeping a floor under prices.

What it means for you: A pullback is welcome, but oil is still up sharply over the past month — don't expect a big break at the pumps yet.

4. Gas Prices Keep Climbing, Tax Holiday or Not

CAA's national average hit 179.1 cents per litre today, up from 178.2 cents on Monday, even with the federal fuel excise tax holiday extended through January 31, 2027. The holiday is cushioning the increase from oil-driven pressure, not offsetting it.

What it means for you: Budget for gas prices to keep drifting higher into the fall while oil sits above $100. Fill up before a road trip rather than after.

5. Canada's Investment Summit Wraps with $500B in Commitments and a Big Tax Cut

The two-day Canada Investment Summit in Toronto closed Tuesday with nearly $500 billion in new investment commitments, financing capacity and fund pledges from global investors. Prime Minister Carney also unveiled a "Productivity Mega Deduction," letting businesses immediately write off a much broader range of assets — cutting the marginal effective tax rate on new business investment to about 6.4% from roughly 13%. Ottawa also announced plans to open Canada's four largest airports (Toronto Pearson, Vancouver, Montreal, Calgary) to private investment.

What it means for you: This won't hit your bank account today, but it's a signal on business investment and jobs. If the airport privatization plan advances, keep an eye on whether it eventually shows up in airport fees.

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This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Figures are current as of publication and subject to change.