5 Things to Know Today — September 28, 2026

 

Monday, September 28, 2026  |  MoneySavings.ca

Iran rejects Trump's terms for Hormuz, the US alcohol ban on Canadian goods kicks in tomorrow, the loonie posts its 13th straight losing session, Tuesday brings a key GDP print, and Ottawa quietly narrowed the federal deficit. Here's what it all means for your wallet today.

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01 OF 05

🛢️ Iran Digs In on Hormuz — Trump Rejected the Deal, and Oil Stays Elevated

Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi offered over the weekend to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days — the same terms attached to the June Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding that collapsed in early July. The conditions: the US lifts its naval blockade on Iranian ports, waives sanctions on Iranian oil sales, and observes a broader ceasefire. Trump rejected the offer outright on Saturday, calling it a play by a country that is "losing badly," and renaming the strait "Trump Strait" on Truth Social for good measure. As of this morning, Iran says it will not soften its demands. The two sides appear far apart heading into the week.

Vessel transits through Hormuz — normally the route for about one-fifth of global oil supply — have fallen to roughly nine per day, a fraction of peacetime levels. Brent crude settled around $104–106 on Friday before slipping slightly Monday morning on fleeting diplomatic optimism, while WTI holds near $92–$95. The broader market dynamic hasn't changed: until Hormuz traffic normalizes, supply disruption fears keep a floor under global energy prices.

💡 What it means for youElevated oil prices flow through to your gas bill — CAA's national average was sitting near 177–180¢/L last week. Remember: the federal gas-tax-holiday extension (now running to January 31, 2027) is cushioning the pump, but not fully offsetting the oil-driven spike. If Hormuz talks break down further, Goldman Sachs has flagged a $120 Brent scenario as a tail risk. That would push gas back toward 190¢+/L territory.

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02 OF 05

🍺 The US Alcohol Import Ban on Canada Takes Effect Tomorrow — What's Actually Off the Shelf

At 12:01 a.m. ET on September 29 — tomorrow — the United States formally bans imports of packaged Canadian alcoholic beverages. That covers bottled and canned beer, wine, cider, spirits, and beverage alcohol, plus whey products, molasses, and motorcycles over 800cc. Trump signed five proclamations on September 8 authorizing the move under Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930, citing Canada's provincial restrictions on American alcohol (the LCBO ban in Ontario and SAQ ban in Quebec have been in place since March 2025) as "continued discrimination against US commerce." US Census data shows Canadian beer exports to the US are down roughly 85% since 2025 and 94% since 2024.

There's a notable carve-out: bulk whisky in containers over four litres escapes the ban, which is why Crown Royal (bottled in the US since Diageo closed its Amherstburg, Ontario line) sidesteps the restriction. Goods in transit before tomorrow that haven't cleared US customs remain subject to the 50% tariff rather than the full ban.

💡 What it means for youFor Canadian producers and the roughly 20,000+ Ontario beverage-sector workers tied to US export markets, this formalizes what the 50% tariff since August 22 already made economically unviable. On the consumer side, the LCBO's ban on US products remains in place — Ontario's finance minister reaffirmed in August it stays until full tariff removal. The reciprocal standoff is now nearly total. If you're a craft winery or distillery owner, this is the week to confirm your US distribution contracts are paused and to review domestic pricing strategy.

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03 OF 05

📉 Loonie Posts Its 13th Straight Losing Session — Here's the Rate-Differential Math

The Canadian dollar finished Friday at 70.70 US cents (USD/CAD 1.4145), marking its 13th consecutive session of weakness — the longest losing streak in several years according to Bank of Canada daily data. The loonie lost 0.72 of a US cent over the week, while the US Dollar Index edged lower by 0.27. The pair is essentially at levels not seen since mid-July. CIBC Capital Markets expects USD/CAD to average 1.42 through Q4 2026, with the US Federal Reserve continuing to tighten (the Fed hiked 25bp to 3.75–4.00% on September 16) while the Bank of Canada holds at 2.25%.

The October 28 BoC decision remains the key domestic pivot: National Bank and Scotiabank still forecast a hike to 2.50%, while TD and BMO expect a hold. Montreal Exchange one-month CORRA futures as of September 24 were pricing roughly 11.6 basis points of movement — about a 47% chance of a hike. The widening US–Canada rate differential is the primary headwind for CAD right now.

💡 What it means for youA weaker loonie raises the cost of everything you buy in US dollars — cross-border shopping, US-dollar-priced investments in your TFSA or RRSP, travel, and imported goods. If you hold US-dollar ETFs, the weaker CAD is boosting your returns in Canadian-dollar terms; just know that reverses if the loonie recovers. October 28 is the next BoC decision — a hike to 2.50% would likely provide some loonie support but would raise your variable mortgage rate and prime-linked HELOC costs.

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04 OF 05

📊 July GDP Prints Tomorrow — Flash Estimate Shows Flat Growth

Statistics Canada releases July monthly GDP by industry tomorrow morning (Tuesday, September 29, 8:30 a.m. ET). Statistics Canada's own advance estimate, released alongside the June report, already flagged that real GDP was "essentially unchanged" in July — with gains in real estate and professional services offset by declines in retail trade and manufacturing. June came in at +0.3% month-over-month, the third consecutive monthly expansion, with 13 of 20 industrial sectors growing.

RBC Economics notes that flat July GDP poses "downside risk" to its Q3 tracking estimate of 1.8% annualized growth, but points to other resilient signals: hours worked rose strongly in August (+0.6%), advance August retail sales are up 1.3%, and RBC card transaction data suggests continued consumer activity. The Bank of Canada has flagged that new US tariffs (effective August 22) could potentially halve GDP growth to under 1% annualized in Q4.

💡 What it means for youA flat or negative July GDP print would strengthen the "hold or cut" camp at the Bank of Canada and potentially soften October hike expectations — good news for variable-rate mortgage holders and HELOC borrowers. A surprise upside print would do the opposite. Either way, the tariff shock hasn't fully landed in the monthly data yet; Q4 2026 is where most economists expect the real growth hit to show up.

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05 OF 05

💸 Ottawa's Deficit Narrowed Sharply — $5.1B in First Four Months of 2026-27

The federal Finance Department's monthly fiscal monitor, released last Thursday, showed a federal budget deficit of $5.1 billion for the April-to-July period of the 2026-27 fiscal year — down significantly from the $7.8 billion deficit over the same four months a year ago. Revenue for the period totalled $175.5 billion (up from $163.4 billion), driven by higher personal and corporate income tax receipts and GST revenues, which rose 7.4% year over year. Program expenses rose a more modest 5.1% to $159 billion, while public debt charges climbed to $20 billion from $18.6 billion as the government carries a larger stock of marketable bonds at higher average rates.

The Spring Economic Update 2026 projected the 2025-26 deficit at $66.9 billion — $11.5 billion below Budget 2025 estimates — representing 2.1% of GDP. Ottawa's stated anchor is a declining deficit-to-GDP ratio through to 2030-31.

💡 What it means for youA narrower deficit in the early months of the fiscal year is a modestly positive signal for the government's fiscal credibility — which matters for Canada's borrowing costs and, by extension, the bond yields that set fixed mortgage rates. The $20B public debt charge bill is a reminder of how much higher rates are costing Ottawa (and therefore you as a taxpayer). Watch for the full-year deficit picture to expand if tariff-hit GDP growth forces more stimulus spending in Q4.

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📅 On the calendar this week:
Tue Sept 29 — Statistics Canada July GDP (8:30 a.m. ET)  |  Tue Sept 29 — US alcohol import ban on Canadian goods takes effect (12:01 a.m. ET)  |  Wed Sept 30 — TSX CLOSED (National Day of Truth and Reconciliation)  |  Oct 28 — Bank of Canada rate decision

MoneySavings.ca is a Canadian personal finance blog. This post is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Always consult a qualified financial professional before making financial decisions.