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Lock In or Wait? Why Two Big Banks Say Rates Are Going Up in October

  Published September 2, 2026 The Bank of Canada did exactly what all 35 economists in Reuters' latest poll expected today: it held its overnight rate at 2.25% for a sixth straight decision, keeping the prime rate at 4.45%. Bond markets had priced in barely a 3% chance of anything else. What's not settled is what happens next — and on that question, Canada's biggest banks are more split than they've been all year. Four of the Big Six expect the Bank to sit tight through the end of 2026. Two expect it to start hiking as soon as October. If you're renewing a mortgage in the next few months, that gap isn't academic — it's the difference between locking in now and gambling on a rate cycle turning against you. The Split, Bank by Bank Here's where the six largest banks stand on where the overnight rate lands by the end of 2026: Bank Year-end 2026 call Stance BMO 2.25% (hold) Hold camp CIBC 2.25% (hold) Hold camp RBC 2.25% (hold) Hold camp TD 2.25% (hold) Hold...
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5 Things to Know Today: Oil Surges on Iran Conflict as TSX Slips Before the BoC

 

September 1, 2026 — Here's what's moving markets and your wallet this morning.

1. Oil Jumps as U.S.-Iran Fighting Flares Up Again

Weeks of relative calm ended over the weekend when a tanker was struck by projectiles in the Strait of Hormuz and U.S. and Iranian forces exchanged direct attacks for the first time in a month. Brent crude climbed to $91.52/barrel and WTI to $87.01, with President Trump threatening further strikes.

What it means for you: Sustained oil gains typically show up at the pump within days. Worth topping up sooner rather than later, especially with the gas tax holiday also winding down (see #4).

2. TSX Slides for a Second Straight Day

The TSX closed Monday at 36,270.48, down 283.44 points (-0.78%), with banks and gold miners leading the retreat as geopolitical risk crept back into the picture. Wall Street also pulled back (Dow -0.70%, S&P 500 -0.33%, Nasdaq -0.12%), and the VIX ticked up to 14.92.

What it means for you: If you're contributing to a TFSA or RRSP, pullbacks like this are a reminder that dollar-cost averaging smooths out exactly this kind of week-to-week noise.

3. The Bank of Canada Decides Tomorrow

The Bank of Canada's rate announcement lands Wednesday, September 2. Markets widely expect an eighth consecutive hold at 2.25%, though odds of a U.S. Fed hike have crept higher since Fed Chair Warsh's hawkish Jackson Hole remarks last week — a factor that can pull Canadian bond yields (and mortgage pricing) along with it even without a BoC move.

What it means for you: If you're up for a mortgage renewal, a hold means little near-term change in variable rates — but watch fixed-rate offers, which move with bond yields, not the BoC's overnight rate alone.

4. Gas Tax Holiday Ends in 6 Days

The federal fuel-excise-tax suspension expires September 7. Once it lifts, expect gas prices to rise by roughly 10.5¢/L in GST provinces and 11.3-11.5¢/L in HST/QST provinces — on top of whatever this week's oil spike adds at the pump.

What it means for you: A 60L fill-up will cost roughly $6-7 more once the holiday ends. If you're due for a fill-up anyway, doing it before September 7 is worth a few extra minutes.

5. Canada's Retaliation Tariffs Land in 7 Days

Ottawa's retaliatory tariffs take effect September 8, targeting six sectors: steel, dairy, appliances, agricultural equipment, pulp and paper, and electronics. With premiers publicly divided over going further with resource-based leverage, the scope of the trade fight remains fluid heading into next week.

What it means for you: If you're shopping for appliances or anything with imported steel or aluminum components, prices on affected categories could start moving before the month is out — buying ahead of September 8 may be worth considering for planned purchases.

This is general market and news information, not financial advice. Check with a licensed advisor for guidance specific to your situation.

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