Canadian Money Brief • Daily Markets Update
Wednesday, September 2, 2026
Oil jumped above $95 a barrel overnight as the United States launched fresh airstrikes on Iran, sending global bond yields to their highest levels in nearly three years and dragging stocks lower across Asia. The TSX closed Tuesday at a four-week low, and futures point to more selling this morning — all of it landing on the same day the Bank of Canada delivers its rate decision, expected around 9:45 a.m. ET.
🇨🇦 Canadian Markets
| Index | Close | Change |
|---|
| S&P/TSX Composite | 35,825.73 | −444.75 (−1.23%) |
Tuesday's session was broad-based selling, with losses concentrated in materials, information technology, and industrials. Rising bond yields hit gold and silver prices hard, which in turn pressured the TSX's heavyweight mining names — Barrick, NovaGold, and Equinox Gold were all down 2–6.5% as bullion pulled back from last week's highs. Energy was the lone bright spot, with Canadian Natural Resources, Suncor, and Cenovus each gaining as oil climbed. The Canadian dollar slipped to 71.9 U.S. cents (1.3903 USD/CAD) this morning, weaker than Tuesday's close, as traders position ahead of today's rate call.
🇺🇸 U.S. Markets
| Index | Close | Change |
|---|
| Dow Jones | 52,766.88 | −419.02 (−0.79%) |
| S&P 500 | 7,631.47 | −54.67 (−0.71%) |
| Nasdaq | 26,099.77 | −271.12 (−1.03%) |
| Russell 2000 | 2,920.13 | −36.32 (−1.23%) |
All three major U.S. averages fell for a third straight session as renewed U.S. strikes on Iran overnight Tuesday reignited fears of a wider Middle East conflict. The bigger story for markets was the bond market: the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.80%, its highest since January 2025, while the 30-year climbed to 5.28%. Rising oil prices are feeding inflation worries just as traders had already raised bets on a September Fed rate hike following Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish Jackson Hole comments last week — futures markets are now pricing roughly a 65–70% chance of a hike this month. The VIX volatility index jumped more than 7% intraday.
🌍 European & Asian Markets
Asia sold off sharply overnight as the Iran conflict escalated further while markets were trading. Japan's Nikkei 225 fell 2.60% to 64,495, dragged down by tech and AI-related names (Advantest, Tokyo Electron, SoftBank Group all down 2.5–6.4%) as Japan's 10-year government bond yield touched 3% for the first time since 1996 on growing expectations the Bank of Japan will hike rates later this month. South Korea's KOSPI tumbled nearly 4% to 6,562.72, its worst day in weeks, snapping a three-session winning streak. Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell roughly 0.8% to about 25,105, a third consecutive losing session, while mainland China's Shanghai Composite was also lower. European futures pointed to a soft open, with Frankfurt's DAX indicated down amid the same bond-yield pressure hitting Asia and Wall Street; London's FTSE was comparatively steady near 10,789.
🛢️ Commodities & Currency
| Asset | Price | Change |
|---|
| Brent Crude | ~US$95.40/bbl | 5-week high |
| WTI Crude | ~US$91/bbl | 3rd straight gain |
| Gold (spot) | ~US$4,375/oz | 2-week low |
| USD/CAD | 1.3903 (71.9¢ US) | Loonie softer |
Oil's climb is the story tying everything together this week: renewed U.S. strikes on Iran, reports of tankers being struck near the Strait of Hormuz, and fears of further disruption to the world's most important oil chokepoint have pushed Brent to its highest level in five weeks. Gold and silver, meanwhile, are moving the opposite direction — surging bond yields make non-yielding bullion less attractive, and gold has now given back most of its early-August gains even though it's still up sharply for the year.
💡 What It Means for You
- At the pumps: Higher Brent and WTI prices typically show up at Canadian gas stations within days. Combined with the federal gas tax holiday expiring September 7, expect pump prices to move higher through September.
- Mortgages and variable rates: Today's BoC decision matters directly for anyone with a variable-rate mortgage or HELOC. A hold at 2.25% (the widely expected outcome) means no immediate change to your payments, but the hot July CPI print and this week's oil spike could complicate the Bank's path later this fall.
- TFSA/RRSP holders in gold: If you've added gold ETFs or miners to a registered account this year, today's pullback is a reminder that bullion isn't a one-way trade — the same rate expectations pushing yields up are working against gold in the short term.
- Cross-border shoppers: A softer loonie (71.9 U.S. cents) makes U.S. online purchases and cross-border trips modestly more expensive than they were last week.
📅 What to Watch
- Today, ~9:45 a.m. ET: Bank of Canada rate decision — the Bank's sixth of the year. A hold at 2.25% is the widely expected outcome despite July's hot 3.0% CPI print.
- Today, 10:00 a.m. ET: U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI, watched closely for fresh signs of inflation pressure.
- This week: U.S. August jobs report due Friday — a key input for the Fed's September rate decision.
- September 7: Canada's federal gas tax holiday expires.
- September 8: Canada's retaliatory tariffs on roughly $20 billion of U.S. goods take effect.
Market data current as of Wednesday, September 2, 2026 morning. Figures for U.S. and Canadian markets reflect Tuesday's official close; Asian and European figures reflect overnight and early trading. This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.
Comments
Post a Comment