Friday, September 4, 2026
Canadian and U.S. markets both closed sharply higher Thursday after a dovish-sounding comment from a Fed official cooled fears of a September rate hike. But the calm may not last: Statistics Canada and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics release their August jobs reports simultaneously this morning, and both could move markets fast.
🇨🇦 TSX: Miners and Banks Power a 541-Point Rally
The S&P/TSX Composite Index jumped 541.51 points, or 1.5%, to close Thursday at 36,633.12, its biggest one-day gain in about a month. The move followed comments from U.S. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller, who said he's inclined to be patient on interest rate policy — a notably softer tone than the hawkish signals sent by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh just days earlier at Jackson Hole. Traders responded by trimming bets on a Fed rate hike this month.
Gold miners led the charge as gold prices jumped alongside the dovish repricing: Agnico Eagle gained about 5%, Barrick Mining rose 3.1%, and Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM) added 3.7%. The Big Five banks also advanced, with Royal Bank up 1.6% and both BMO and CIBC gaining 1.8%, while technology names rode a rally in U.S. hyperscaler stocks.
| Canadian Index | Close | Change |
|---|
| S&P/TSX Composite | 36,633.12 | +541.51 (+1.5%) |
| CAD/USD (loonie) | USD/CAD 1.3806 | Near 2-week high for CAD |
🇺🇸 Wall Street: All Three Major Indexes Post Strong Gains
U.S. stocks closed broadly higher Thursday, recouping some losses from the previous sessions' Middle East-driven selloff. The S&P 500 rose 1.06% to 7,747.71, the Nasdaq Composite climbed 1.4% to 26,584.06, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 624.16 points, or 1.18%, to 53,686.11. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) eased to around 14.6.
| U.S. Index | Close | Change |
|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,747.71 | +1.06% |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 53,686.11 | +624.16 (+1.18%) |
| Nasdaq Composite | 26,584.06 | +1.4% |
🌍 Europe and Asia
Europe (Thursday's close): London's FTSE 100 rose 0.70% to 10,831.52, Germany's DAX gained 0.63% to 26,003.32, and France's CAC 40 edged up 0.07% to 8,286.40, as European markets tracked the same rate-relief rally seen on Wall Street.
Asia (this morning): Asian markets were mostly higher heading into the North American open, with Japan's Nikkei 225 up around 1% and South Korea's Kospi gaining roughly 1.3%, as regional traders also positioned for the pending U.S. payrolls data. Trading was described as holding relatively steady, with no major fresh developments out of the Middle East overnight.
🛢️ Commodities and Currency
| Commodity / Currency | Level | Note |
|---|
| Gold (Dec. contract) | ~US$4,540/oz | +US$125 Thursday |
| Brent crude | ~US$95-96/bbl | Near 6-week high |
| WTI crude | ~US$90-92/bbl | Elevated on Mideast risk |
| Canadian dollar | USD/CAD 1.3806 | Near 2-week high for loonie |
Oil remains elevated after this week's renewed U.S.-Iran hostilities near the Strait of Hormuz, and that's part of what's kept the Canadian dollar firm alongside a hawkish message from the Bank of Canada, which held its key rate at 2.25% earlier this week while flagging upside inflation risks.
💰 What It Means for You
- Mortgage and loan rates: A patient Fed and a hawkish BoC narrow the odds of near-term relief on variable rates. If you're renewing soon, don't bank on a rate cut showing up before year-end.
- Gas and heating costs: Brent near $95-96 and WTI near $90-92 mean pump prices likely stay elevated, especially with the federal gas tax holiday set to expire September 7.
- Travel and cross-border shopping: USD/CAD near 1.38 is a modest improvement for the loonie versus recent months — a small win if you're planning a U.S. trip or paying USD bills.
- RRSP/TFSA holders: If you hold Canadian bank or gold-mining stocks, Thursday's rally was a good day. Materials and financials are carrying the TSX right now — worth knowing if your portfolio is concentrated there.
📅 What to Watch Today
Today is a rare simultaneous data day — both countries' August jobs reports land at 8:30 a.m. ET, a full hour before markets open:
- Canada's Labour Force Survey: Economists expect a modest gain of about 15,000 jobs in August, with unemployment holding at 6.4%. That would mark a sharp slowdown from July's surprisingly strong 75,000-job gain.
- U.S. nonfarm payrolls: Consensus estimates cluster around +50,000 to +58,000 jobs, with unemployment holding at 4.1%. July's report was a shocker — a decline of 23,000 jobs, with the prior two months revised down by a combined 103,000.
Because Warsh has signalled the Fed may lean toward fighting inflation rather than cutting, a stronger-than-expected U.S. report today could actually rattle markets by reviving rate-hike odds — the opposite of how jobs data used to move stocks. Weak data, unusually, would be the market-friendly outcome this time.
Other dates still on our radar: the federal gas tax holiday expires September 7, and Canada's retaliatory tariffs on six sectors of U.S. goods take effect September 8.
This article is for general information purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Market data reflects levels as of the time of writing and can change quickly. Consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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