Oil Tops $102, TSX Slides for a Third Day Ahead of Today's CPI

 

September 11, 2026

Global markets stayed on the back foot Thursday as oil surged past $102 a barrel on escalating US-Iran hostilities, the European Central Bank delivered a hawkish rate hike, and hotter-than-expected US producer prices pushed Wall Street to a fourth straight losing session. The TSX fell for a third day in a row. All eyes are now on today's US inflation report, the last major data point before next week's Fed decision.

Canada: TSX Falls to a One-Month Low

The S&P/TSX Composite closed Thursday at 35,506.28, down 400.28 points (-1.11%) — its third consecutive decline and its lowest close in about a month. Energy and mining stocks were the rare bright spots as crude prices spiked, while banks and broader cyclicals were dragged down by rising bond yields and renewed Middle East escalation.

Index	Close	Change
S&P/TSX Composite	35,506.28	-400.28 (-1.11%)

United States: A Fourth Straight Down Day

Wall Street extended its losing streak to a fourth session Thursday. Hotter-than-expected August producer prices (up 5.4% year-over-year, well above forecasts) combined with the surge in oil and a Treasury debt-buyback operation that disappointed bond bulls pushed the 10-year Treasury yield toward the 5% mark, its highest level in nearly two years, and rekindled bets on a Federal Reserve rate hike at next week's meeting.

Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones Industrial Average	52,064.10	-316.20 (-0.60%)
S&P 500	7,591.70	-44.57 (-0.58%)
Nasdaq Composite	26,081.73	-171.62 (-0.65%)
Russell 2000	2,890.95	-30.28 (-1.04%)

The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) jumped 8.4% to 17.84, its highest close in several weeks, as market breadth deteriorated broadly.

Europe: ECB Hikes to 2.50%, Stocks Slip to Near Two-Month Lows

The European Central Bank raised its deposit rate by 25 basis points to 2.50% Thursday — its second hike of the year and the highest level since 2025 — warning that Middle East-driven energy costs threaten to keep inflation elevated. The pan-European STOXX 600 slid to a near two-month low, closing around 635.97 points (-0.69%). London's FTSE 100, Frankfurt's DAX and Paris's CAC 40 all finished lower on the day as the hawkish tone overshadowed the fact that the hike itself was widely expected.

Asia: Nikkei Drops Nearly 2% as Rate and Oil Worries Spread

Asian markets fell sharply in Friday trading as the Wall Street selloff and the oil spike rippled through the region. Japan's Nikkei 225 closed at 64,011.34, down 1,259.61 points (-1.93%), having sunk as much as 3.16% intraday, with the broader Topix off 0.65% to around 4,028. China's Shanghai Composite fell roughly 1.8%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng slipped about 1%, and South Korea's Kospi dropped around 2.5% — among the region's worst sessions in weeks.

Commodities & Currency

Asset	Level	Change
WTI Crude Oil	US$102.48/bbl	+$6.43
Brent Crude Oil	Above US$100/bbl	2nd straight day above $100
Gold (Dec. contract)	US$4,407.30/oz	-$53.40
Canadian Dollar	72.35¢ US	-0.12¢ (vs. 72.47¢ Wed.)

What It Means for You

Rising oil prices flow through to pump prices and heating costs heading into fall, while the jump in bond yields and renewed rate-hike odds — both at the Fed and now the ECB — add pressure on fixed mortgage rates even before the Bank of Canada makes its next move. If you're renewing a mortgage in the coming months, it's worth locking in rate quotes now rather than waiting for a possible further rise. For investors, the pullback in the TSX and a weaker loonie are a reminder to check how much of your RRSP or TFSA is concentrated in rate-sensitive sectors like banks and growth stocks versus energy and gold, which have been the relative winners this week.

What to Watch

• Today (Sept. 11): US Consumer Price Index (August) — the final major inflation read before next week's Fed decision, alongside University of Michigan consumer sentiment
• Sept. 14-15: Canada Investment Summit in Toronto, targeting $1 trillion in investment over five years
• Mon., Sept. 14: Canada's August CPI — the first inflation reading since the Sept. 8 retaliation tariffs took effect
• Sept. 15-16: US Federal Reserve rate decision (FOMC), with markets currently pricing meaningfully higher odds of a hike after this week's data

Market data sourced from The Canadian Press, Reuters, Investing.com and Yahoo Finance as of Thursday's close and Friday's completed Asian and European sessions. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.