Tuesday, September 22, 2026 (as of market close) · Published September 23, 2026
Canada's main stock index surged more than 300 points Tuesday as materials and technology stocks led a broad rally, while oil prices declined for a fifth straight session on growing optimism that the U.S. and Iran may be nearing a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Here's everything you need to know.
🍁 Canada — S&P/TSX Composite
| Index | Close | Change | % Change |
|---|
| S&P/TSX Composite | 36,335.61 | +326.21 | +0.91% |
The TSX closed at 36,335.61 Tuesday, rebounding sharply on broad-based gains in basic materials and technology stocks. The move follows a volatile stretch since the September 15 tariff expansion and continues a partial recovery from the multi-week lows hit earlier this month. Monday's prior close was 36,009.40.
Top gainers included Curaleaf Holdings (+11.29%), Trekor Metals (+8.33%), and Hammond Power Solutions (+7.87%). Among the laggards, Rogers Communications (RCI.B) fell 3.02%.
🇨🇦 What It Means for You
The TSX rally suggests some relief for TFSA and RRSP investors who saw their balances battered over the past two weeks. Materials strength reflects optimism that oil supply disruptions may ease — but the index remains roughly 2% below its record high of 37,069.11 (Aug. 6). Don't read one up day as a trend reversal; volatility is still the story.
🇺🇸 United States
| Index | Close | Change | % Change |
|---|
| Dow Jones | 51,863.69 | -185.14 | -0.36% |
| S&P 500 | 7,764.64 | -0.06 | ~flat |
| Nasdaq | 27,244.28 | +122.18 | +0.45% |
| Russell 2000 | 2,889 | +14.56 | +0.51% |
| VIX (Fear Index) | 14.25 | -4% | |
U.S. markets were mixed Tuesday in what's been a remarkable rally since the Fed's 25 basis-point hike on September 16. The QQQ (Nasdaq-100 ETF) has gained about 7% in five straight sessions — the longest winning streak since mid-April — driven by mega-cap tech (Meta, AMD, Intel) and AI data-centre plays. The VIX falling to 14.25 signals markets are showing little fear, despite elevated rate expectations and ongoing Middle East tensions.
The biggest story in U.S. markets was Meta's Muse AI agent, which reached No. 1 on the U.S. App Store, sparking broad disruption across sectors. Insurance names (ALL, PGR), streaming stocks (Spotify), and financial brokerages all fell on fears the agent could displace their services. Shopify (SHOP) gained as it announced deep integration with Muse through Shop Pay. Meanwhile, Amazon (AMZN) fell after explicitly blocking Muse from shopping on Amazon.com.
The Richmond Fed's September manufacturing index came in at -2 (vs. -1 expected), while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield edged higher to around 4.976% and the 2-year hit a fresh two-year high of 4.79%. The U.S. dollar index (DXY) rose +0.17% to 100.60.
🇺🇸 What It Means for You
The Fed has now hiked to 2.50% (September 16 decision) and markets are pricing in at least two more hikes by Q1 2027. Rising U.S. yields directly pressure Canadian fixed mortgage rates, since our 5-year bond tends to track the U.S. 10-year. If you're renewing your mortgage in 2026–2027, the math is moving against you — and the Bank of Canada's next decision on October 28 is live.
🌍 Europe
| Index | Close (Tues.) | Change |
|---|
| FTSE 100 (London) | ~10,830 | ▲ Modest gain |
| DAX (Germany) | ~25,290 | ▼ Slight decline |
| CAC 40 (France) | ~8,315 | ▼ Slight decline |
European markets were mixed Tuesday. Energy stocks provided modest support to London, while German and French bourses lagged on continued concerns over elevated yields and the region's exposure to U.S.–Canada tariff ripple effects. The ECB hiked its deposit rate 25 basis points to 2.50% on September 10 — its second hike this cycle — and markets continue to price in further tightening.
🌏 Asia-Pacific (Tuesday's close)
| Index | Close | Change |
|---|
| Nikkei 225 (Japan) | ~63,800 | ▲ Rebounding |
| Hang Seng (HK) | ~26,630 | ▲ Modest gain |
| Shanghai Composite | ~3,950 | ▲ Mixed |
| Kospi (S. Korea) | ~6,990 | ▲ Rebounding |
Asian markets found tentative footing Tuesday as oil's five-day decline reduced inflation pressure on import-heavy economies. Japan's Nikkei rebounded from recent lows amid the yen's relative stabilization. Hong Kong's Hang Seng picked up as oil-driven energy cost concerns eased. The Bank of Japan has remained accommodative while watching U.S. Fed rate moves closely.
⛽ Commodities
| Commodity | Price | Change |
|---|
| WTI Crude | US$94.59 / bbl | -US$1.19 (-1.24%) |
| Brent Crude | US$99.25 / bbl | -US$1.09 (-1.09%) |
| Gold (Dec.) | US$4,376.40 / oz | -US$7.50 (-0.17%) |
| Silver (Dec.) | US$66.53 / oz | +US$0.11 (+0.17%) |
Oil prices fell for a fifth consecutive session — Brent crude dropped to US$99.25 and WTI settled at US$94.59 — after Japan's Kyodo News reported Iran offered to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days if the U.S. takes initial steps toward easing military pressure. Trump separately said the U.S. is "nearing a deal" with Iran, though Tehran's IRGC said talks remain ongoing without formal agreement.
Brent has now dropped roughly US$7–8 from last week's peaks above US$107. Still, UBS warned the risk premium remains "fragile" — any delay in implementation could quickly restore the supply-disruption premium. Bank of America has revised its 2026 Brent forecast to US$82/bbl if the Strait fully reopens; Goldman Sachs pegs the near-term range at US$80–$90 on a confirmed deal.
Gold slipped slightly to US$4,376.40, continuing its recent pullback from highs above US$4,700 (late August). Rising yields and a stronger U.S. dollar are capping gains.
⛽ What It Means at the Pump
Canada's gas tax holiday remains in effect until January 31, 2027 (federal excise tax paused). If oil continues sliding toward US$80–90/bbl, you could see pump prices fall meaningfully from recent highs (~177–180¢/L national average). Each US$10/bbl drop in Brent historically translates to roughly 3–4¢/L at the pump over 2–4 weeks. Keep an eye on CAA's daily tracker.
💱 Canadian Dollar & Currency Markets
| Pair | Rate | Change |
|---|
| CAD/USD (loonie) | 71.10 US¢ (1.4064 USD/CAD) | -0.22¢ |
| EUR/USD | 1.1433 | -0.003 |
| JPY/USD (USD/JPY) | 157.47 | +0.11 |
| 10-Yr US Treasury | 4.976% | +1.3 bps |
The loonie softened to 71.10 US cents on Tuesday, down from 71.32 on Monday. The Canadian dollar has been under pressure as rising U.S. yields attract capital south of the border and as the BoC's hawkish pivot (explicit rate-hike openness since the September 2 hold at 2.25%) creates uncertainty about Canadian monetary policy direction. Markets are pricing roughly 60%+ odds of a BoC hike on October 28.
💱 What It Means for You
A weaker loonie means U.S. online shopping, travel to the U.S., and imported goods all cost more. At 71.10 US cents, every US$100 online purchase costs you roughly C$141 — before currency conversion fees and tariffs. If you shop cross-border, consider paying with a no-foreign-transaction-fee card.
📋 Tariff & Trade Context
Canada's $27.6-billion retaliation tariffs (15/25/50% rates on ~700 U.S. products) remain in effect since September 8. The U.S. import bans on Canadian alcohol, whey/molasses, and motorcycles take effect on September 29 — one week from today — and expanded U.S. 50% tariffs on Canadian steel, aluminum, vehicles, cheese, and construction materials have been in place since September 15.
Separately, Trump on Tuesday confirmed the U.S. will continue purchasing Canadian potash — even as Belarus offered a lower price — a small positive signal for Saskatchewan potash producers like Nutrien (NTR.TO).
📅 What to Watch Next
- Sept. 29: U.S. import bans on Canadian alcohol, whey/molasses & motorcycles take effect.
- Iran deal timeline: Markets watching for a formal U.S.–Iran Strait of Hormuz agreement — could send Brent below US$80 if signed.
- Oct. 28: Bank of Canada rate decision — hike to 2.50% or hold at 2.25%? This is the most important date for Canadian mortgage holders right now.
- Mid-October: Canada's September CPI — the second post-tariff inflation read. September 8 tariffs will push some prices higher.
- Q1 2027: U.S. Fed pricing in at least two additional hikes. Higher U.S. rates = continued pressure on the loonie and Canadian bond yields.
Market data sourced from BNN Bloomberg, Canadian Press, Investrade/Hammerstone Markets, and public exchange feeds as of September 22, 2026 market close. All figures in CAD unless otherwise noted. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or financial advice. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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