A bond market shockwave ripped through global equities Thursday as 10-year US Treasury yields surged to their highest level since 2007 and 30-year yields touched heights not seen since 2004. The TSX slipped for a second straight session, Brent crude held above $100 on Iran tensions, and gold fell to a two-week low — even as a reported US-Iran phased deal offered brief relief. Here's what closed and what it means for your money.
🇨🇦 Canada — TSX
| Index | Close | Change | % Change |
|---|
| S&P/TSX Composite | 35,706.46 | -44.97 | ▼ 0.13% |
| TSX Venture (TSXV) | 913.91 | — | ▼ 1.17% |
The TSX edged lower for a second consecutive session, caught between rising global bond yields and a brief surge in oil prices. Materials and base-metals stocks weighed on the index as gold prices retreated under pressure from a surging US dollar and higher real yields. On the bright side, retailers got a lift from advance data suggesting Canadian retail sales likely rebounded in August — their strongest month since January. Shopify climbed 2.4%, tracking Meta's gains after the two companies announced a partnership enabling purchases through Meta's new Muse AI agent using Shop Pay. BlackBerry fell 3.9% despite reporting strong Q2 2026 earnings.
Canada's 10-year government bond yield approached a three-year high as energy-driven inflation concerns rippled through the domestic bond market alongside the broader global selloff. The day's range: 35,538.07 – 35,764.04.
🇺🇸 United States — Wall Street
| Index | Close | Change | % Change |
|---|
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 51,349.98 | -161.61 | ▼ 0.31% |
| S&P 500 | 7,704.13 | -1.90 | ▼ <0.1% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 26,939.37 | +3.34 | ▲ <0.1% |
| Russell 2000 | 2,835.57 | -3.09 | ▼ 0.11% |
| VIX (Fear Index) | ~15.80 | — | ↑ elevated |
US markets churned in a narrow band as bond market turbulence made investors reluctant to take on more risk. The S&P 500 was essentially flat — but the calm headline masked a difficult session: decliners outnumbered advancers by nearly 2:1, and utilities and consumer discretionary stocks bore the biggest losses. The 10-year US Treasury yield closed near 5.11% — its highest level since 2007. The 30-year yield hit 5.43%, a level not seen since 2004.
The session was briefly rescued from steeper losses by reports that US and Iranian negotiators in New York are exploring a phased agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for lifting the US economic blockade on Iran. That news knocked oil back from its session highs and gave Meta and other growth stocks a lift. Meta approached a $2 trillion market cap milestone, up 16.8% over the past week on enthusiasm for its new Muse AI consumer agent. Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson said Thursday that inflation "needs attention" and may require further rate hikes — Fed hike odds for October jumped from 55% to ~70% in a single session.
🌍 Europe
| Index | Close | % Change |
|---|
| FTSE 100 (London) | 10,705 | ▼ 0.03% |
| DAX 40 (Frankfurt) | 25,427 | ▼ 0.59% |
| CAC 40 (Paris) | 8,123 | ▼ 0.39% |
| Euro Stoxx 50 | 6,301 | ▼ 0.38% |
| IBEX 35 (Madrid) | 19,632 | ▼ 0.62% |
European markets closed broadly lower Thursday as surging bond yields and elevated oil prices above $100 per barrel weighed on sentiment. Germany's DAX was the hardest hit among the majors. Mercedes-Benz and BMW each fell roughly 3% as auto manufacturers faced pressure from both rising borrowing costs and ongoing trade uncertainty ahead of the Trump-Xi White House summit. The FTSE 100 was nearly flat, cushioned by oil and gas stocks that rose as Brent climbed. Flash PMI data showed stronger-than-expected services activity across the euro area, Germany, and France, though the data paradoxically hurt markets by fuelling rate-hike expectations rather than boosting confidence.
🌏 Asia-Pacific
| Index | Close | % Change | Note |
|---|
| Nikkei 225 (Tokyo) | 65,513.99 | ▲ 0.76% | Reopened after 3-day holiday; chip stocks led |
| Hang Seng (Hong Kong) | 24,761.13 | ▼ 0.30% | Tech & semis weighed |
| Shanghai Composite | 3,888.37 | ▼ 1.20% | Awaited Trump-Xi outcome |
| CSI 300 | 4,439.14 | ▼ 1.73% | Bond yield concerns |
| S&P/ASX 200 (Sydney) | 8,702.00 | ▼ 0.72% | Rate-hike pressure |
| KOSPI (Seoul) | Closed | — | Chuseok holiday |
Asia's session was split: Japan's Nikkei 225 bucked the trend, rising as semiconductor shares rallied after a three-day break — AI-related chipmakers got a boost and a weaker yen supported exporters. China and Hong Kong were more cautious as investors awaited the White House summit between Trump and Xi, which wrapped Thursday evening. The US-China trade truce was officially extended to January 10, 2026, but markets saw the outcome as incremental, not transformative. The 10-year US Treasury yield had climbed above 5.10% — its highest in 19 years — rippling pressure across Asia's bond markets as well.
🛢️ Commodities
| Commodity | Price (USD) | Change |
|---|
| Brent Crude (Nov futures) | ~$106.94 / bbl | ▲ +2.77% |
| WTI Crude (Oct futures) | ~$94.33 / bbl | ▲ +2.35% |
| Gold (Spot, USD) | ~$4,273 / oz | ▼ ~0.4% (2-week low) |
| Gold (CAD, Kitco) | ~C$6,056 / oz | ▼ (weaker loonie limited CAD drop) |
| Gold (Comex settlement) | $4,292.90 / oz | ▼ 2-week closing low |
Oil: Brent broke above $105 and held near $107 after Houthi and Iraqi militia strikes on Saudi Arabia's East-West "Petroline" pipeline, with Brent remaining well above the roughly $72 it cost before the Iran conflict escalated. Iranian President Pezeshkian reiterated that Tehran will not allow freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz while sanctions and the US blockade remain in place. That said, brief optimism about a phased diplomatic deal did trim the intraday spike — reports from Reuters said US and Iranian negotiators in New York are working on an arrangement that would allow tanker traffic to resume. Goldman Sachs has flagged $120 Brent as a risk scenario if talks fail. WTI, Canada's more relevant benchmark, held above $94.
Gold: Gold fell to a two-week low, pressured by a surging US dollar and soaring real yields — the 10-year Treasury's jump above 5.10% raised the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset. Gold is now on track for more than a 2% weekly decline, though it remains roughly $1,000 above where it started 2026. For Canadian holders, a weakening loonie partially cushioned the drop: the CAD price fell less sharply than the USD price.
💱 The Loonie
| Pair | Rate | Note |
|---|
| USD/CAD | ~1.4147 | ▼ Loonie weaker — ~70.7 US cents |
The Canadian dollar retreated against a broadly stronger US dollar as Treasury yields surged and Fed hike expectations firmed. USD/CAD firmed to approximately 1.4147, pushing the loonie to roughly 70.7 US cents. Oil's rally likely cushioned the loonie somewhat — Canada's energy-linked currency tends to benefit when WTI rises — but broad dollar demand won the day. For comparison, the loonie was around 72.4 US cents in mid-September before the latest bond market storm hit.
💡 What It Means for Your Wallet
- Mortgage holders: The surge in Canadian and US bond yields is the direct driver of fixed mortgage rates. Canada's 5-year bond — which prices 5-year fixed mortgages — is rising in lockstep with US Treasuries. If you're renewing in the next 3–6 months, the window for locking in below 4% may be closing.
- Gas prices: Brent above $100 means sustained pump pressure even with the gas tax holiday extension to January 31, 2027. The national average was around 177–179¢/L in mid-September; expect that to stay elevated or push higher.
- TFSA/RRSP investors: Gold in your portfolio is doing its job less efficiently right now — rising real yields are the kryptonite for gold. If you hold gold ETFs (e.g., ZGD, HUG, PHYS), this week's pullback from the January 2026 high near $5,597 USD may look like noise in the long run, but the near-term trend is down while yields are surging.
- Cross-border shoppers: With the loonie near 70.7 US cents, your US-dollar purchases are more expensive. That $100 USD item now costs you roughly $141 CAD before duty or brokerage fees.
- Inflation watch: Higher oil above $100 + a weaker loonie is a two-headed inflation risk. It raises the odds the Bank of Canada looks through any economic softness and follows the Fed toward a rate hike at the October 28 decision.
📅 What to Watch — Today & Next Week
- Today (Fri Sept 25): US Durable Goods Orders for August at 8:30am ET (forecast: −0.3%); US University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment final for September at 10:00am ET — especially the inflation expectations component, which the Fed watches closely. Canada Wholesale Sales (preliminary) for August at 12:30pm ET.
- Tues Sept 29: Canada GDP for July at 8:30am ET — a key read on economic momentum ahead of the October 28 BoC decision.
- Wed Sept 30 (TSX Closed): National Day for Truth and Reconciliation — TSX closed.
- Wed Sept 30: US GDP Q2 final revision + US Personal Income & Spending (PCE inflation) — the Fed's preferred inflation gauge.
- Fri Oct 2: US September Jobs Report (Nonfarm Payrolls) — the next major catalyst for Fed hike odds.
- Oct 28: Bank of Canada rate decision — National Bank/Scotiabank are forecasting a hike to 2.50%; TD/BMO expect a hold. The next two weeks of data (GDP, CPI trajectory, oil) will likely decide it.
- Ongoing: Sept 29 — US import bans on Canadian alcohol, whey/molasses, and motorcycles over 800cc take effect. Watch for LCBO pricing signals and sector impact news.
Data sourced from MSN Money, ABC News, Newsquawk, Bloomberg, Trading Economics, Kitco, and BabyPips as of market close September 24, 2026. All figures in local currency unless noted. This post is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or financial advice. Always consult a licensed advisor before making financial decisions.
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