Yields Surge, TSX Sinks 584 Pts as Oil Rebounds and Iran Diplomacy Stalls

 

Thursday, September 24, 2026 

Wednesday's session was a rough one coast to coast. The TSX dropped 584 points — its steepest single-day loss in weeks — as surging bond yields, a rebound in oil prices, and a stalemate at the UN General Assembly in US-Iran diplomacy hammered banks, miners, and tech alike. Wall Street also closed in the red, with the 10-year Treasury yield touching 5.11%, its highest level since 2007. For Canadians, the story is a trifecta: higher yields mean costlier mortgages, higher oil means costlier gas (despite the holiday extension), and a weaker loonie near the critical C$1.41 mark means your US spending power is quietly shrinking.

🍁 Canada — TSX Composite

Index / Asset	Close (Sept 23)	Change	% Change
S&P/TSX Composite	35,751.43	▼ 584.18 pts	▼ 1.61%
TSX — Previous Close	36,335.61	—	—
52-Week High	37,069.11	—	—
52-Week Low	29,530.92	—	—

The TSX fell nearly 600 points on Wednesday, its worst session since early August, as a brutal combination of rising global bond yields, firmer oil prices, and renewed inflation fears hit every corner of the index. Ten of eleven TSX sectors declined.

Banks took the hardest hit

Canada's Big Six bore the brunt of the selloff. RBC fell 2.0%, TD dropped 2.4%, BMO shed 2.0%, and Scotiabank retreated 1.6%. Rising long-bond yields squeeze net interest margins and raise recession fears — not a friendly backdrop for financials heading into the BoC's October 28 decision.

Miners also got crushed

Gold, silver, and copper all extended their recent declines, dragging the materials sector lower. Agnico Eagle fell 3.9%, Barrick lost 3.2%, and Wheaton Precious Metals tumbled 5.4%. CIBC also downgraded Endeavour Silver from outperformer to neutral, piling on.

Tech: SHOP gave back Meta gains

Shopify (SHOP-T) pulled back about 3–7% on Wednesday after its massive two-session surge of roughly 15% following the Meta Muse/Shop Pay partnership announced Monday. Profit-taking was the primary driver — Shopify was down approximately $6 to $201 range — as the stock faces a rich 90x forward earnings multiple. Deutsche Bank noted the deal signals that major AI platforms are choosing Shopify's infrastructure rather than building their own, though valuation risk remains elevated.

🇺🇸 United States — Wall Street

Index	Close (Sept 23)	Change	% Change
Dow Jones Industrial Average	51,511.59	▼ 352.10 pts	▼ 0.68%
S&P 500	7,706.03	▼ 58.61 pts	▼ 0.75%
Nasdaq Composite	26,936.04	▼ 308.24 pts	▼ 1.13%
VIX (Fear Index)	15.18	▲ 2.08%	Rising
US 10-Year Treasury Yield	5.11%	▲ 3.04%	Highest since 2007

US stocks closed broadly lower for a second straight session as a perfect storm of catalysts drove selling. All three major indices fell, with the Nasdaq leading declines at -1.13% as communication services, utilities, and consumer discretionary all led losses. Ten of 11 S&P 500 sectors finished in the red.

The headline driver was the 10-year Treasury yield, which climbed to 5.11% — its highest since July 2007. The catalyst: S&P Global's September flash PMI showed US business activity accelerating for a fourth straight month, hitting its fastest pace in over five years, with new orders and price inflation at multi-year highs. That print reignited expectations of a second Fed rate hike this year, just one week after the first hike brought rates to 3.75–4.00%.

A weak 7-year Treasury note auction compounded the yield spike, as soft demand forced the government to offer higher rates to attract buyers. Markets are now pricing roughly 70% odds of another Fed hike in October, up from 55% just 24 hours earlier. McDonald's fell 4.89%, Alphabet dropped 4.68%, and Home Depot lost 2.80% among the Dow's biggest laggards. Salesforce (+1.84%), Chevron (+1.38%), and Boeing (+0.95%) were the only meaningful bright spots.

Today (Thursday), US futures steadied in early trading, as investors awaited weekly jobless claims data and earnings from Costco and Darden Restaurants. The Iran diplomacy story — and whether Trump's UN-week meetings produce any Strait of Hormuz progress — remains the overarching wildcard.

🇪🇺 Europe

Index	Close (Sept 23)	% Change
FTSE 100 (London)	~10,670	▼ ~0.66%
DAX (Germany)	25,410.63	▼ 0.66%
CAC 40 (France)	8,123.41	▼ 0.39%

European markets closed broadly lower Wednesday, dragged by the same yield-and-oil dynamic weighing on North American bourses. Germany's DAX fell 0.66% and France's CAC slipped 0.39%, as industrial and energy-sensitive names bore the brunt. The ECB hiked by 25 bps to 2.50% last week — the second move of this cycle — which has added to European rate-sensitive stress. Germany's cabinet also approved a roadmap to phase out fossil fuels by 2045, a longer-term policy note worth watching for energy-sector positioning.

🌏 Asia-Pacific

Index	Close (Sept 24 local)	% Change	Note
Nikkei 225 (Tokyo)	65,665	▲ ~1.0%	Tech/AI catch-up rally
Hang Seng (Hong Kong)	24,761	▼ ~0.3%	Yield/dollar pressure
Shanghai Composite	~3,950	Flat	Mixed sentiment

Asian markets were mixed Thursday. Japan's Nikkei jumped roughly 1% to 65,665, powered by a technology and AI catch-up rally as Kioxia Holdings gained 3.2%, Ibiden Co surged 5.9%, and SoftBank Group climbed 5.4%, all playing catch-up to global AI peers after a holiday closure. Investors also noted the Trump-Xi summit scheduled for later this week — any trade-truce extension between the US and China could be a further tailwind for Asian tech.

Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell 0.3% to 24,761, extending losses as the global bond selloff, firmer US dollar, and the oil rebound weighed on sentiment. The Trump-Xi meeting headline provided some support, after US Treasury Secretary Bessent indicated the US and China agreed to a two-month extension of their trade truce to January 10.

🛢️ Commodities — Oil & Gold

Commodity	Price (approx.)	Move	Context
Brent Crude (Nov)	~US$101/bbl	▲ Rebounding	Hovering near $100–$101 range after 5-session pullback
WTI Crude (Nov)	~US$94–96/bbl	▲ Up ~3%	Iran's Pezeshkian rules out Hormuz deal without sanctions lifted
Gold (spot)	~US$4,251/oz	▼ ~0.85%	Pressured by stronger USD, Fed hike odds ~70% Oct
Gold (CAD)	~C$6,050/oz	—	Per Kitco (Sept 23 close)

Oil: A Textbook Push-Pull

Brent crude oscillated around the $100-per-barrel mark for a third session, rebounding Thursday after briefly dipping mid-week on hopes for a diplomatic breakthrough. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian addressed the United Nations Wednesday, making clear Tehran will not allow Strait of Hormuz freedom of navigation while US sanctions and the "US blockade" remain in place — a hard line that quickly reversed Monday's brief de-escalation optimism. President Trump held lower-level talks with Iranian envoys and called them "very productive," but Pezeshkian poured cold water on the idea of direct negotiations.

The API reported a 1.8-million-barrel increase in US crude inventories — slightly bearish on its own — but that was overwhelmed by the geopolitical premium. Saudi Arabia continues working to restart its East-West Petroline pipeline (damaged in drone strikes Sept 13), which would allow crude exports to bypass Hormuz entirely. Analysts are skeptical that restoration happens quickly; Goldman Sachs has flagged a Brent upside scenario above $120/bbl in 2027 if Gulf output remains disrupted.

Gold: Yields Win This Round

Gold fell to roughly US$4,251/oz on Thursday, extending its slide from the ~US$4,700+ peak in late August. The pressure is straightforward: a stronger US dollar and surging Treasury yields raise the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset like gold. Markets now price roughly 70% odds of a Fed hike in October — up sharply from the previous week — and Fed officials including Richmond Fed's Tom Barkin are reinforcing that higher rates for longer is the plan.

For Canadian holders, the CAD gold price (~C$6,050/oz per Kitco) has been partly cushioned by loonie weakness. But gold's US-dollar spot price is down roughly 9% from the record highs reached earlier this year.

🪙 Canadian Dollar (Loonie)

Pair	Rate	Loonie value	Note
USD/CAD	~1.4070–1.4090	~70.9–71.1¢ US	Near 2-month high for USD, 3rd straight session of loonie weakness
Sept 22 (Monday)	1.4036	71.2¢ US	—
BoC Rate	2.25%	7th consecutive hold	Next decision: Oct 28
Fed Rate (target)	3.75–4.00%	Hiked Sept 16	~150–175 bps above BoC

The loonie is under real pressure. USD/CAD has been grinding toward 1.41 — the Canadian dollar's weakest territory since early August — for three straight sessions. The dominant force is simple: the Fed hiked last week to 3.75–4.00%, and the Bank of Canada has held at 2.25% for seven straight meetings. That creates a US-Canada two-year yield spread near 150 basis points, the widest gap of 2026, making US-dollar deposits more attractive.

Normally, oil prices above $100/bbl would support the commodity-linked loonie. But that channel isn't working right now. The rate-differential trade is overpowering it. September 29 US import restrictions on Canadian alcohol, whey/molasses, and motorcycles add an additional overhang, and any Washington threat to Belarusian potash as a substitute for Canadian supply would be another blow.

Markets are now pricing roughly 60% odds of a BoC hike on October 28 — which, if it materializes, could provide some relief to the loonie. Governor Macklem has signalled openness to hikes if inflation remains elevated, but weak August jobs data (-41,700) gives the BoC legitimate cover to stay put.

💡 What It Means for Your Wallet

Your mortgage: The 10-year US Treasury at 5.11% is the highest since 2007 and pulls Canadian 5-year bond yields higher with it. Canada's 5-year bond — which drives fixed mortgage pricing — is around 3.4–3.5%. Best 5-year fixed rates sit roughly 3.94–4.09% today. If you're renewing in the next 6–12 months, this week's yield spike is a reminder of why locking sooner rather than later is being actively discussed.

Your gas bill: Brent at $101 keeps upward pressure on pump prices despite the gas tax holiday extension to January 31, 2027. The national CAA average hit 177–180¢/L this week. The holiday is helping, but oil is fighting it.

Your TFSA/RRSP: Gold in CAD (~C$6,050/oz) is down from record highs, but still 13%+ above a year ago. If you hold gold ETFs as an inflation hedge, the current pullback is driven by Fed-hike repricing — not a fundamental breakdown in demand.

Your US trips/purchases: The loonie near 71¢ US means a US$100 purchase costs you about C$141. That's ~2¢ worse than six weeks ago. Factor that into cross-border holiday plans and any USD-priced subscriptions.

📅 What to Watch Next

• Today (Thu Sept 24): US weekly jobless claims (8:30am ET) — any uptick could ease Fed-hike bets and give bonds a breather. Earnings: Costco and Darden Restaurants.
• Trump-Xi Summit: Trump and China President Xi Jinping are expected to meet this week. Any extension of the US-China trade truce (currently extended to Jan 10) would be a positive for Asian and commodity markets.
• Iran Diplomacy: The UN General Assembly wraps up this week. Whether US-Iran back-channel talks produce any Strait of Hormuz deal is the overriding driver for oil, yields, and stock sentiment globally.
• Sept 29 — US Import Bans: US bans on Canadian alcohol, whey/molasses, and motorcycles take effect in five days. Ontario's LCBO and Canadian spirits producers are watching closely.
• Oct 28 — BoC Rate Decision: Markets pricing ~60% odds of a 25bp hike to 2.50%. National Bank and Scotiabank both forecast a hike; TD/BMO/RBC are more cautious. The loonie's trajectory will follow this closely.
• Oct 19 — Alberta Referendum: Secondary political risk. Could amplify tariff/fiscal-policy headlines depending on outcome.

Market data sourced from TMX Money, Trading Economics, BNN Bloomberg, Kitco, Yahoo Finance, and Investing.com. Figures reflect closing prices for Wednesday, September 23, 2026; some intraday and pre-market figures noted where indicated. This is not investment advice. For personal financial decisions, consult a licensed professional.