Oil Just Hit $110 — Could Canada's Energy Boom Offset the Tariff Pain?

 

Published September 13, 2026 · 6 min read

Brent crude touched nearly $110 US a barrel when trading opened Friday morning — its highest level since the spring — as renewed Iran-linked strikes on Saudi energy infrastructure rattled global supply. It settled back down to close the week around $104.61, but the direction of travel has been unmistakable: oil is up roughly 9-10% in the past week alone.

That's bad news at the pump. But according to a CBC News analysis published this morning, it might not be bad news for Canada's economy overall. The argument: the roughly 0.5% hit to GDP from Trump's tariffs could be more than offset by the windfall Canada earns as one of the world's biggest oil exporters.

For a personal finance reader, that's really two separate stories — one that costs you money, and one that might be quietly making some of your money back. Here's how to think about both sides of your own ledger.

Why oil is spiking again

The latest leg up traces to a familiar source: the Iran conflict. Houthi forces linked to Iran struck multiple Saudi energy facilities over the past week, and Saudi Arabia took the precaution of shutting down its East-West "Petroline" pipeline — a route that moves 4-5 million barrels a day and exists specifically to bypass the Strait of Hormuz. Houthi forces also reportedly advanced to seize Yemen's Perim Island, a strategic point near the strait's mouth.

There's a diplomatic thread running alongside the military one: Iranian state media said Tehran would meet Gulf Cooperation Council states in Oman this week to discuss the strait, which is part of why Brent pulled back from its Friday intraday high to settle closer to $104. Where oil goes next likely hinges on whether those talks produce anything concrete.

The cost side: what you're paying at the pump

The national average price for gas hit 179.3¢/L as of September 12, per CAA — up from 170.5¢/L in early August, even with the federal gas tax holiday (extended to January 31, 2027) still cushioning the increase. Ontario and Quebec saw some of the sharpest week-over-week jumps in the latest reading.

What it means for you: A 60-litre fill-up that cost about $102 in early August now runs closer to $108. Without the gas tax holiday, it would be worse — Ottawa's pause is currently doing real work to blunt this specific spike.

The offset side: your portfolio and your pension

Here's the part that doesn't show up on a gas station sign. Higher oil prices have been very good to Canadian energy producers this year, and by extension, to anyone holding them — directly, through a fund, or through CPP.

If you hold energy stocks in your TFSA or RRSP: Suncor (TSX:SU) has returned roughly 42-45% over the past six to twelve months, outpacing the broader energy sector. Canadian Natural Resources (TSX:CNQ) is carrying a dividend yield near 3.9% with more than two decades of consecutive annual increases, on the strength of low production costs and strong free cash flow. Morgan Stanley upgraded Suncor recently, pointing to an 11% free-cash-flow yield and its refining-margin exposure. If your portfolio — or a broad Canadian index fund — has any energy weighting at all, it's likely been a bright spot this year.

If you're relying on CPP: this one is less direct, but worth knowing. CPP Investments manages the Canada Pension Plan fund at arm's length from government and reported total assets of C$777.5 billion as of last September. According to Shift Action, an advocacy group that tracks pension fund fossil fuel exposure, CPP Investments held more than $24 billion in publicly traded fossil fuel company shares as of March 31, 2026, with additional exposure through private equity energy holdings. That means a rising oil price doesn't just pass Canada by at the national level — it flows, in part, through the fund your CPP contributions are invested in. It's one piece of a very large, diversified portfolio, not a lever you can pull, but it's a real link between the price at the pump and the health of a pension most working Canadians will eventually collect.

What it means for you: The honest answer is "it depends on your exposure." A renter with no energy stocks and a long commute is mostly just paying more for gas. A homeowner with a Canadian equity index fund in their RRSP, or exposure to CNQ/Suncor/Enbridge specifically, is likely seeing at least some of that pain offset on the other side of their balance sheet.

What to watch this week

• Monday, Sept 14: Canada's August CPI release — the first inflation read that captures a few days of the Sept 8 retaliation tariffs, plus rising gas prices. This is the number that tells us whether this is starting to show up in the broader cost of living.
• Sept 14-15: The Canada Investment Summit in Toronto, targeting $1 trillion in investment over five years with CPP and PSP as hosts.
• Sept 15-16: The Fed's rate decision — markets are now pricing in roughly 87-90% odds of a hike, up sharply from about 50% a week ago, after hotter-than-expected core inflation data.
• Ongoing: The Oman-hosted Gulf Cooperation Council talks with Iran on the Strait of Hormuz — the single biggest swing factor for where oil goes from here.

Figures cross-verified across CAA, CBC News, Trading Economics, Investing.com, and CPP Investments' public disclosures as of September 13, 2026, and subject to change as markets move.