Canadian Money Brief
5 Things to Know Today
Wednesday, October 28, 2026
It’s a heavy day for Canadian wallets. The Bank of Canada announces its rate decision this morning, the U.S. Fed follows this afternoon, tariff talks are heating up, and bigger OAS deposits land in bank accounts. Here’s what to know.
1 The Bank of Canada decides this morning — a hike is widely expected
The decision lands at 9:45 a.m. ET, along with a new Monetary Policy Report. Markets and economists expect a quarter-point increase to 2.50% from 2.25%, which would be the first hike since July 2023. Nineteen of 34 economists in a Reuters poll called for the move, and investors were pricing roughly a 75% chance on Tuesday. The case for it: inflation hit 3.1% in September, driven almost entirely by energy, even as core measures eased below 2%.
What it means for you
A hike would likely lift prime rates quickly, so variable-rate mortgages and HELOCs feel it first. Roughly, 0.25 points adds about $250 a year per $100,000 of variable-rate debt. On a $500,000 variable mortgage (about 4% rate, 25-year amortization), the payment could rise by around $70 a month if it resets. Fixed-rate holders aren’t affected until renewal.
2 The Fed decides later today, and the loonie is waiting
The U.S. Federal Reserve announces its own decision this afternoon, after tightening in September. The loonie slipped 0.3% on Tuesday to 71.17 U.S. cents (1.4050 per U.S. dollar), pulling back from a five-week high hit on Friday as traders cut positions ahead of the two central banks.
What it means for you
At Tuesday’s rate, a US$1,000 purchase (cross-border shopping, U.S. travel bookings, USD subscriptions) costs about C$1,405. Both decisions can move the dollar sharply within hours, so big U.S.-dollar purchases are worth timing with that in mind.
3 Stocks rise on Tuesday, but oil is still hovering near US$100
The S&P/TSX Composite climbed 227.33 points to close at 36,171.49, led by basic materials. On Wall Street, the S&P 500 gained 0.6% and the Nasdaq 1.2% as AI stocks led, while the Dow was roughly flat. U.S. crude settled 1.8% lower at US$99.90 a barrel as traders watched Middle East peace talks, and December gold finished at US$4,074.60 an ounce.
What it means for you
Oil near US$100 is the root of both the inflation reading and today’s rate debate, so gas and winter heating bills remain the household pressure point. Even on a calm up day, watch how today’s decisions land: the TSX closes a few hours after both announcements.
4 Canada and the U.S. are talking steel and auto tariffs, but no deal yet
Reuters, citing two U.S. and four Canadian sources, reports the two governments are working on a deal to ease U.S. tariffs on Canadian steel (up to 50%) and autos (25%). U.S. officials sounded upbeat over the weekend, but Prime Minister Carney said Monday that Canada hasn’t changed its position, and a Semafor report suggested a deal is less imminent than Washington claimed.
What it means for you
A deal would be a relief for steel and auto workers and communities, and a tailwind for the loonie. But nothing is signed, so treat “close to a deal” headlines with caution until there are specific tariff cuts on paper.
5 OAS, GIS and CPP deposits land today, with OAS and GIS getting a 1.4% bump
Service Canada’s October payments go out today. It’s the first deposit at the new October–December rates, with Old Age Security, the Guaranteed Income Supplement and the Allowance all rising 1.4%. CPP is indexed only once a year, so it stays at the 2.0% increase applied in January. The next deposits are November 26 and December 22.
What it means for you
Check your exact amount in My Service Canada Account. If a payment looks wrong or hasn’t arrived, Service Canada asks you to wait 5 to 10 business days before contacting them.
On the radar
Nov. 5: Finance Minister Champagne tables the 2026 federal budget. The Parliamentary Budget Officer projects a $63.3-billion deficit for 2026-27.
Sources: Bank of Canada, Reuters, The Canadian Press / BNN Bloomberg, The Associated Press, Kitco, Service Canada, Parliamentary Budget Officer. Market figures are Tuesday, Oct. 27 closes. For information only; not financial advice. MoneySavings.ca | Canadian Money Brief
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