5 Things to Know Today: BoC Hike Bets, TSX Slide, Oil Near $100 (Oct. 23)

 

Canadian Money Brief • Friday, October 23, 2026

The Bank of Canada decision is five days away, the TSX gave back most of Wednesday's gains, and oil is flirting with US$100 again. Here are the five things Canadian wallets need to know today.

1. Markets Lean Toward a Bank of Canada Hike on Oct. 28

A decision that looked like a ninth straight hold is now a genuine coin flip with a hawkish tilt. After Governor Tiff Macklem warned that there is "no resolution in sight" for the Middle East conflict, BMO and Desjardins flipped to a hike call, Scotiabank firmed up its call and Goldman Sachs joined them, all looking for a quarter-point move to 2.50%. Overnight swaps priced about an 87% chance of a hike earlier this week, though other economists still argue for a hold, pointing to September's 68,000 job losses and a 6.5% unemployment rate.

What it means for you: A quarter-point hike adds roughly $21 a month in interest for every $100,000 of variable-rate borrowing (HELOCs and prime-based loans move right away). Fixed-rate holders are affected at renewal. Before Wednesday, compare quotes and check your rate-hold options.

2. TSX Falls About 1% as Gold, Copper and Tech Slide

The S&P/TSX Composite closed Thursday at 35,973.45, down 351.54 points (-0.97%), pulling back from a four-week closing high of 36,325 on Wednesday. Weaker gold and copper prices hit the miners, while tech shares fell on renewed worries about AI spending.

What it means for you: Canadian index funds and ETFs lean heavily on materials, energy and tech, so days like this show up in your TFSA and RRSP. A one-day move is noise; if you are investing monthly, stick to the plan rather than reacting to the headline.

3. Loonie Holds Above 71 Cents

The Canadian dollar traded at 71.32 cents US on Thursday, up from 71.14 cents on Wednesday, or roughly C$1.40 per US dollar. Rate-hike bets and high oil prices are supporting the currency, while a Bank of Canada hold on Wednesday would be a risk to that rebound.

What it means for you: At about C$1.40, U.S. travel, U.S.-dollar shopping and cross-border online orders remain expensive. If you need US dollars soon, avoid card currency conversion fees by using a no-fee option or converting in advance.

4. Oil Near US$100 as Gulf Tensions Escalate

The December crude contract rose US$2.32 to US$99.47 a barrel on Thursday. Traders are reacting to reports of escalating attacks on Gulf shipping and talk of possible U.S.-Iran escalation after the U.S. midterm elections on Nov. 3. September's 3.1% inflation reading was driven largely by fuel.

What it means for you: Pump prices follow crude with a lag of days to weeks, so filling up before a further spike is reasonable. The federal fuel excise tax suspension is in place through Jan. 31, 2027, which cushions the hit, but it does not remove it.

5. Retail Sales Data Land This Morning

Statistics Canada releases August retail sales at 8:30 a.m. ET, along with a flash estimate for September. Its early read in September pointed to a 1.3% gain in August after July's 0.7% drop. Shoppers are still spending despite higher prices, and a strong print would add to the case for a rate hike.

What it means for you: Strong spending can keep inflation sticky, which is exactly what the Bank of Canada is weighing. Watch the September flash for a hint of whether consumers are finally pulling back.

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Sources: Reuters, BNN Bloomberg, Investing.com, Bloomberg, Canadian Mortgage Trends, MoneySense, Statistics Canada, TD Economics. Figures as of the Thursday, Oct. 22 close. This is general information, not financial advice. More from the Canadian Money Brief.