Canadian Money Brief • Monday, October 26, 2026
A packed week of central-bank decisions starts now, and the Bank of Canada goes first on Wednesday. Here are the five things Canadians should know today.
1The Bank of Canada is expected to hike on Wednesday
Markets are pricing roughly an 80–85% chance that the Bank of Canada lifts its overnight rate by a quarter point to 2.50% on Wednesday, Oct. 28 (9:45 a.m. ET), alongside a fresh Monetary Policy Report. A Reuters poll of economists (Oct. 21–23) found 19 of 34 now expect a hike, with many switching from “hold” after Governor Tiff Macklem signalled the Bank’s inflation forecast will be revised higher.
What it means for you: Variable-rate mortgages and HELOCs follow prime. As an illustration, a quarter-point hike adds about $57 a month on a $400,000 variable mortgage (25-year amortization, around 4.5%) and about $21 a month per $100,000 of HELOC balance (interest only). Fixed rates track bond yields instead, so they can move without the Bank.
2Oil backs off six-month highs on U.S.–Iran hopes
Crude slid early Monday after last week’s surge, as hopes of easing U.S.–Iran hostilities offset worries over continued attacks on Saudi Arabia. Brent futures were near US$114.50 (down about 1.9%) and WTI near US$101 (down about 2.2%). WTI had closed Friday at US$103.27.
What it means for you: Pump prices lag crude by days to weeks, and one down day isn’t relief. Fuel is what pushed September inflation up to 3.1%, so a sustained oil drop is what would ease the pressure on your gas and grocery bills.
3The TSX starts the week on the back foot
The S&P/TSX Composite closed Friday at 35,788.18, down 185.27 points (−0.52%), its lowest close since Oct. 14 and a 1.1% loss on the week as AI-linked stocks wobbled. Energy gained while financials fell. TSX futures were pointing higher (about +0.5%) early Monday.
What it means for you: One soft week is normal market noise. If your TFSA or RRSP plan hasn’t changed, a down week alone isn’t a reason to change it. Regular contributions simply buy at lower prices when markets dip.
4U.S. tariff list changes take effect Friday
A proclamation signed Oct. 23 reshuffles which Canadian goods face the 50% Section 338 duties from Oct. 30. Plywood, some paper and packaging, certain machinery and refrigeration equipment come off the list, while some valves, carpets and waste products go on. The duties apply regardless of CUSMA status, and a lawsuit challenging them was filed at the U.S. Court of International Trade this week.
What it means for you: It’s partial relief for some exporters, not an end to the dispute: most of the 50% duties remain. If you work in forestry, packaging or manufacturing, watch for company announcements on orders and hours.
5Fed day, GDP and the Budget countdown
The U.S. Federal Reserve announces its decision Wednesday at 2 p.m. ET, hours after the Bank of Canada, and is widely expected to hold at 3.75%–4.00%. Canada’s September GDP follows Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET. Federal Budget 2026 lands Nov. 5, ten days from now. Economists note the Bank faces a weak economy and rising inflation at the same time.
What it means for you: Rate decisions move the loonie, borrowing costs and your investments within minutes. Put Wednesday, Friday and Nov. 5 on your calendar, and avoid big money moves on the day of an announcement.
Sources: Reuters, The Canadian Press, Bloomberg, CNBC, Yahoo Finance, White House fact sheet, CBC News. Market figures reflect Friday’s close (Oct. 23) and early Monday trading, and may change during the day.
This article is general information, not financial advice. Mortgage examples are illustrations only; your payments depend on your lender, rate and terms.
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